Brazil waited anxiously for President Jair Bolsonaro to acknowledge its defeat Monday, walled in silence since the announcement of the presidential victorycelebrated worldwide, by Lula, whose mandate promises to be complicated.
After a narrow defeat on Sunday (50.9% to 49.1%), the incumbent head of state isolated himself in his official residence in Alvorada in Brasília until the change of power on January 1st.
He walked to the Planalto Palace, the seat of the presidency, on Monday morning without giving the slightest explanation, an AFP photographer noted.
That heavy silence, which Lula expressed “concern” about on Sunday night, reminded many Brazilians that Jair Bolsonaro had repeatedly threatened not to recognize the verdict of the ballot box if he lost.
This climate of uncertainty was reflected in the volatility of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Latin America’s leading financial hub, which gained 0.40% after opening lower at 15:30 GMT.
Also of concern was the blocking of roads in at least 11 states and in Brasilia by Bolsonarian truckers and other protesters, often wearing the yellow-and-green T-shirt of the far right, according to traffic police.
Barrages of burning tires or vehicles were set up on roads in Mato Grosso (mid-west), announced Concessionaria Rota Oeste, the manager of a highway in that agricultural state, which votes for Bolsonaro but also roads in Parana and Santa Catarina (south). Bolsonarian strongholds.
A highway linking the southeastern metropolises of Rio and Sao Paulo was also blocked, without it being possible to determine whether the movement was spontaneous or coordinated by a political group.
“Strong Relationships”
“While the risk of short-term protests is high, that of a major institutional crisis is very low,” Eurasia Group advisers assessed.
Lula’s victory was greeted around the world by an avalanche of messages to the European Commission from foreign leaders from Washington, London, Paris, Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, Buenos Aires, many of whom expressed impatience that Renewal of solid and productive relations with Brasilia after four years of diplomatic isolation under Jair Bolsonaro.
Many leaders took the opportunity to remind Lula how much the issue of protecting the Amazon, where deforestation has smashed records since 2019, is a priority for the future of the planet.
Norway, the main financier for the protection of the world’s largest tropical forest, has announced the release of its funding, which has been suspended since 2019.
“Brazil is ready to resume leadership in the fight against the climate crisis (…) Brazil and the planet need a vibrant Amazon,” Lula said in his victory speech on Sunday night.
Lula’s government must return resources to organizations that oversee deforestation in the Amazon, greatly weakened by credit cuts, dismemberment and total impunity for all manner of traffickers.
“Peace the Country”
Lula’s mandate promises to be complicated.
Already anticipating difficulties, he had hoped on Sunday that “the (outgoing) government would be civilized” and would understand that “it is necessary to make a good transition of power”.
Lula must heal a Brazil reeling from four years of turbulent leadership by its predecessor, a country split in two by the most polarized and brutal campaign in its recent history.
“Half the population is dissatisfied” with the result, Leandro Consentino, a political scientist from the private Insper University in Sao Paulo, notes for AFP that 58 million voters voted for Bolsonaro. “Lula will have to pacify the country.”
There are “no two Brazilians,” Lula said on Sunday. “I will rule for 215 million Brazilians”.
The icon of the left will also have to contend with a parliament that leaned more towards the far right in the general elections of October 2, with Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) becoming the first formation in the Chamber of Deputies as in the Senate.
Lula has assembled a motley coalition of around ten parties around his Labor Party (PT) and will have to use all his negotiating skills to govern from the center.
During the two transitional months, the future president will have to make announcements about the composition of his government.
Lula could leave room for more diversity on his team: women – there is only one left in the last Bolsonaro government – people of color and indigenous people, with one representative to take the helm of a newly created Aboriginal Affairs.
Another major challenge for Lula: he must fund the promised social policies, but without economic growth under his previous mandates (2003-2010).