Rodrigo Paiva/Getty Images
(The photo was taken on Oct. 2 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, while awaiting the results of the first round of the Lula-Bolsonaro presidential election. Here, a woman who supports Lula feverishly awaits the results of the election.)
BRAZIL – A victory that wasn’t as overwhelming as expected. While left-wing ex-president Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s elections on Sunday, October 1, his supporters remain concerned and disappointed. In fact, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva only narrowly overtook the outgoing president and significantly less than the polls predicted.
Lula thus received 48.4 percent of the votes compared to 43.2 percent for Bolsonaro, almost final but still partial results, while the latest poll by benchmark institute Datafolha on Saturday evening gave the left-wing ex-president a 14-point lead. This points to a hard-fought second round on October 30th.
Brazilians punished the 67-year-old outgoing president less than expected for his Covid denial (685,000 dead), the economic crisis in a country where more than 30 million people are suffering from hunger and the crises that have interrupted his entire mandate.
The nasty “surprise” for Lula’s followers
“It’s a surprise Bolsonaro got more votes than expected, especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the two most important states in the country,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist from the University of Brasília. “In the second round, the presidential race remains open and promises to be hotly contested. Bolsonaro still has every chance of being re-elected,” he adds.
As Matthieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos France, notes on Twitter, Bolsonaro has received more votes in the 1st round this Sunday than in 2018.
🇧🇷🗳️ Lula (53.7 million votes) and Bolsonaro (49.4 million votes) are the two candidates with the most… https://t.co/mxYUpwQg5O
— Mathieu Gallard (@mathieugallard)
“We defeated the lies” of the polls, said the far-right president, who said he was optimistic about playing “the second half” of the presidential election. On Lula’s side, a footballing metaphor: “It’s just overtime. I can tell you we’re going to win this election,” said the 76-year-old former steelworker, who admitted he hoped to win in the first round and appeared dejected after the result was announced.
Until October 30, Bolsonaro will have the opportunity to mobilize his troops on the streets and find new momentum. “It adds to the uncertainty,” Georgetown University’s Michael Shifter told AFP.
Important Bolonarian victories in the legislature and in the governorships
In addition, many Bolsonarist candidates, including former government ministers, clinched key victories in Sunday’s general and gubernatorial elections, held parallel to Brazil’s presidential elections.
In addition to the president and vice-president of the republic, Brazilians were called upon to elect the governors of 27 states (including the federal district of Brasilia), the 513 elected members of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the 81 senators. and state parliaments.
According to analysts, the head of state’s Liberal Party (PL) is on course to win the most seats in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, PL candidates and allied groups won at least 14 of the 27 seats up for grabs.
Among the new congressmen are two highly controversial ex-Bolsonaro ministers: ex-environment minister Ricardo Salles, who left the government on suspicion of corruption, and Eduardo Pazuello, who was criticized for his handling of the health ministry at the height of the pandemic at the in Brazil nearly 700,000 people lost their lives. Claudio Castro, ally of the head of state in Rio de Janeiro, was re-elected governor in the first ballot.
The list of Bolonarians for the Senate also includes former soccer player Romario (re-elected) and Marcos Ponte, the former astronaut and former science minister who ousted Lula ally Marcio Franca, the election favorite.
Three other former ministers, the ultra-conservatives Damares Alves (women), Tereza Cristina (agriculture) and Rogerio Marino (development), as well as the current vice-president, were also elected to the Senate, which in 2023 must confirm two judges of the Supreme Court.
“Bolonarism can be a party”
“Bolonarism can be a party,” writes analyst Miriam Leitao in her column for the daily O Globo. “It was Bolsonarianism that won that first round,” agrees Bruna Santos of the Brazil Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
“We will have a second round in an extremely polarized environment and the voters of Simone Tebet (centre right, 4% of the vote) and Ciro Gomes (centre left, 3%), almost 8 million people, will decide who is entitled to vote will be the next president,” she added.
In the Lulist camp, Viviane Laureano da Silva, a 36-year-old civil servant, remained confident: “The campaign will be difficult, but Lula will win in the second round,” she told AFP in Rio.
See also on The HuffPost: Brazil presidential election: The passion for Lula was seen in Paris
You cannot view this content because you have rejected the cookies associated with third-party content. If you want to view this content, you can change your choices.