Two things can be true at once: Brock Purdy is erasing expectations of a seventh-round draft rookie, and this version of the 49ers is one of the safest quarterback teams in recent memory.
The combined result: In six of the seven games Purdy has played, the 49ers have scored more than 30 points. In the one game where they didn’t, Purdy was too injured to even do any pregame drills.
Kyle Shanahan does some of the best work of his career as a game designer and game caller, opening up the receivers wide. Against the Seahawks in the wild card round, Purdy’s Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) was -0.5 — meaning he may have thrown for three touchdowns and ran for another, but didn’t necessarily beat his circumstances. When Purdy gets the ball to his playmakers, the 49ers have the best collection of yards-after-catch (YAC) specialists in the league. And to go along with that QB-friendly offense, the 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.
In the past, teams with elite defenses only needed game managers, like the 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer or the 2002 Buccaneers with Brad Johnson. But it’s difficult to be a true shutdown defense in this era of passing play and increasing list of defensive penalties. Against the Seahawks on Saturday, both the 49ers’ and Purdy’s defenses were down for much of the game — and San Francisco still dominated.
Although the Seahawks were focused on stopping the run, the 49ers rushed for 110 yards in the first half. To stem the run, the Seahawks deployed more base personnel (three fullbacks, four fullbacks, four fullbacks) and brought in one more fullback in the pits by playing two-deep coverage less often than normal. Seattle instead played more traditional spot-drop coverages, which Shanahan exploited with play-action.
13:14 remain in the second quarter, first-and-10
The 49ers spammed this route combo with a deep turn and a ditch route throughout the game. According to TruMedia, Purdy was 3-of-4 for 99 yards when aiming for the dig route, but he also checked the ball once when the dig was wide open.
Normally the 49ers would execute this combo with a high crosser, but in this game they had the backside receiver execute a ditch instead.
The Seahawks performed a spot drop cover 3 with three deep defenders and four underlying defenders. By running the dig route instead of the crosser, Brandon Aiyuk quickly gained depth, getting as far behind the defenders below before breaking in. If he had crossed the field sooner, the defenders below might have been able to recover and feel him run into their zones.
Seahawks bottom linebackers with their eyes on the quarterback had no idea where Aiyuk was because Aiyuk was getting so much depth. Once Aiyuk crossed the lit underback, he had a huge gap in cover to run into. All Purdy had to do was anticipate the window opening and deliver the ball.
Purdy threw the ball before Aiyuk cleared the hook defender and hit him in the crotch.
Fear of the run prompted the Seahawks to adopt this defensive style, and they didn’t adapt quickly enough. This concept worked so well that the 49ers used it in the two-minute practice with no game action and Aiyuk still hit for a 31-yard gain.
Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle can turn a short checkdown into an explosive game. Since Shanahan was hired as the 49ers head coach, the 49ers have led the league in YAC by reception. They purposely look for players who can create after catching, and Shanahan is adept at making space underneath for his YAC monsters to work. According to TruMedia, Purdy ranks eighth out of 39 qualified QBs in the percentage of his passing yards that come after the catch (51.4 percent), and Jimmy Garoppolo ranks first (59.4 percent).
11:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, first-and-10
In this play-action concept, the Seahawks were once again at their base 3-4 with a safety that turned in the box. Instead of a ditch, the 49ers ran Samuel a low crosser and Kittle a high crosser. This concept is designed to keep the weak side of coverage high/low and get the ball to Samuel underneath with space.
Both weak linebacker, Tanner Muse, and strong safety, Ryan Neal, bit hard on the play-action fake. Realizing it was fake, Muse desperately tried to grab Samuel before Samuel could look him in the face, but his attempt was in vain. Samuel caught the ball with no defenders within 10 yards of him at the 49ers’ 34-yard line and ran the rest of the way for a 74-yard touchdown.
DEEBO SAMUEL 74-YARD TOUCHDOWN. @49ers on 🔥@19problemz #SuperWildCard
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/96NMtTe9OX pic.twitter.com/XezJsSHF4B— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2023
On a shot-by-shot level, Purdy didn’t play particularly well, but settled down in the second half after initially appearing nervous, which is to be expected for any quarterback starting his first playoff game. It could have been the rain, but Purdy’s ball placement was wrong, he didn’t see open receivers and he was unsettled in the pocket. His third-place passer rating was 67.1. And the 49ers still scored 41 points.
15:00 remain in the fourth quarter, second and 11th
At the start of the fourth quarter, the 49ers were just six points clear. Shanahan named one of his signature shooting games: Leak. Although the deep route usually comes from a player lining up away from the game fake, this version features a deep route on the same side as the game action fake.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen bit hard at the playfake despite being responsible for covering deep, leaving Jauan Jennings open on the touchline.
The free safe in the middle of the field was the only defender who could have played the ball. Purdy should have thrown the ball over the touchline but instead led Jennings in, allowing the free safety to almost play the ball or give Jennings a big hit.
What a throw @BrockPurdy13 to Jauan Jennings! #SuperWildCard
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/96NMtTe9OX pic.twitter.com/yai3prvPVS— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2023
In the end, the pass was complete, but it’s details like these that Purdy wants to iron out ahead of the divisional round of the playoffs.
Purdy’s ability to play from structure was a clear advantage over Garoppolo. Including the playoffs, in dropbacks where he took more than three seconds to throw, Purdy ranks fourth in the success rate (47.1 percent). Garoppolo’s success rate of such dropbacks (35.1 percent) is 24th.
However, Purdy needs to manage the bag better than he did against the Seahawks. He may have had trouble seeing over the line, but he has to get in the bag more often and resist his instinct to jump out.
41 seconds left in the second quarter, first-and-10
On that play, Kittle ran a split route mid-defense, but he was likely an “alert,” meaning Purdy would only look at him if he liked the pre-snap look, or stare at him post-snap.
Purdy’s first read is McCaffrey on the choice route, followed by Jennings running a Stick China route.
After the snap, free safety Quandre Diggs left center and jumped to the outside. He might have thought Kittle would run a curved route and guessed wrong. Kittle was far down the middle of the field, but Purdy didn’t see him.
Based on the pre-snap look, it might have been difficult to predict Kittle going wide. Purdy looked at McCaffrey, but the “Lurk” defense attorney helped McCaffrey.
Purdy appeared to be eyeing his next read, Jennings, but didn’t pull the trigger. Purdy had a clean pocket and plenty of room to step up, but instead ran backwards, jumping left and eventually throwing the ball away.
Overall, Purdy’s overtime ability resulted in two touchdown passes, and he should have had another spectacular touchdown shot against Aiyuk, which was dropped.
San Francisco offensive tackle Trent Williams had a fair assessment of Purdy after the game.
“I think it’s great that Brock is getting the attention he deserves. He’s a good player man. And I think anyone who watches football can see that,” Williams said. “I’m not saying he’s the next Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes, but he does everything we need him to do and more. I think that we can of course continue to win with him.”
Purdy arguably plays at a higher level than Garoppolo. But it’s worth noting that his final stat line from Saturday (18 of 30 for 332 yards and three passing touchdowns, along with a rushing touchdown) doesn’t reflect his overall game. This 49ers team – including the coaching staff – is incredibly well constructed and provides an ideal environment for Purdy.
But this is the playoffs, and better teams lie ahead, starting with the Cowboys on Sunday. The Shanahan training wheels eventually have to come off and Purdy is asked to win in straight dropback play to lead San Francisco to a Super Bowl. It may not be fair to ask this of a newcomer, but will Purdy be able to succeed where his predecessor failed?
(Top Photo: Michael Owens/Getty Images)