Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Strategic Research Foundation, April 30, 2022. PIERRE HYBRE/MYOP
Bruno Tertrais, a political scientist by training, specialized in geopolitical and strategic analysis, has notably published Le Shock Démomique (2020) with Odile Jacob and L’Atlas des frontières (Les Arènes, 2021) with Delphine Papin.
Does the war in Ukraine crystallize a new division of the world and Europe into antagonistic blocs?
Yes and no. It consolidates two institutions on the western side: NATO [Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord] with the enlargement to include Sweden and Finland, which are giving up their neutrality and non-alignment policies, and the European Union, which is asserting itself as a geopolitical actor, also with Denmark’s accession to the common defense policy.
In the East the situation is more complex. There is a strengthening of relations between Moscow and Minsk and a virtual merging of their defense systems. And the consolidation of the Sino-Russian axis through the joint communiqué by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in February, just before the attack on Ukraine. But this is not a Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0 Pact. [pacte germano-soviétique de non-agression entre l’Allemagne nazie et l’URSS]. Russia and China are “joined but not allied,” to reverse an expression used by France to describe its relations with America. The two leaders are unanimous in opposing Western policies but unwilling to commit to mutual defense. They compete in Central Asia.
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These consolidations may be reminiscent of the situation in the 1950s, but in reverse. The turning point is now being caused by a severe crisis in Europe, while it was then in Asia with the Korean War. Even if the situation around Taiwan is reminiscent of the crises of 1955 and 1958… Another major difference: unlike in the 1950s, China is now the dominant partner in the Moscow-Beijing pair.
Also limiting the analogy is the asymmetry between a broader western bloc, an ongoing and expanding system of alliances, and in the east, a Collective Security Treaty organization [OTSC] that Russia wanted to be the counterpart of NATO, which only has six members, and a China that has only one ally, North Korea.
Let us also recall that unlike the 1950s, America does not pursue a policy of “rejection,” despite the opinion of the paranoid Chinese and Russian regimes who are convinced that Washington is trying to “change their regimes”…
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Aren’t these blocks also more mobile than they were during the Cold War?
This is another reason for my reservations about the parallel. Vladimir Putin appeared to want to transform the CSTO into a new Warsaw Pact by bringing it to Kazakhstan in early 2022, but that organization is showing signs of cracking. On September 12, Yerevan asked Russia to implement its commitment to defend Armenia, but Moscow refused to do so.
In the Indo-Pacific is the quad [dialogue quadrilatéral pour la sécurité, partenariat informel entre les Etats-Unis, l’Inde, le Japon et l’Australie] is not a military alliance and India does not want to side with Washington. On our continent, Erdogan’s Turkey, mutatis mutandis, seems to want to behave like General de Gaulle’s France within NATO, marking its difference with Moscow…
A ‘Warning Russia’ poster at the entrance of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army in the city of Avdiivka, Donbass, Ukraine, April 28, 2021. GUILLAUME BUILDING FOR THE WORLD Also read: Article reserved for our Moscow subscribers in a strong position in Kazakhstan
There is also Iran, which is getting closer to this Euro-Asian entity around Russia and China, but is interested in its independence. This set features a negative, anti-Western agenda. They are basically “families” rather than “blocks”. And those competing in the rest of the world, that famous “Global South”. A dubious semantic construction reminiscent of the “Third World” of the Cold War…
Are we in a situation comparable to 1914 as a result of the interaction of the alliances?
Since the advent of China, one has wondered if the beginning of the 21st century will be comparable in Asia Early 20th century Europe. The 1914 comparison is an interesting subject, but I remain reluctant for a number of reasons. First, because historians have questioned the idea that the alliance spiral was a major cause of the outbreak of World War I. For the alliances of the 21st century are not those of the 20th century. Not only because of the already emphasized asymmetry of the system – America has forty formal allies, Russia five and China one – but also because defense commitments are less rigid than they appeared at the time.
Finally, because there are rappel cords that did not exist at the beginning of the last century. Western leaders are more aware of the horrors of war. We are not the sleepwalkers of 1914 [Christopher Clark, Flammarion, 2013]. And there is nuclear deterrence. It certainly increases the risk of an indirect confrontation but limits that of a frontal shock. His rules still apply in Europe. It is protected behind its nuclear shield that Russia intervenes in Ukraine, but it is protected by its own deterrence that the West is helping Kyiv.
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What could change this dynamic of emerging blocks?
One can imagine a “Cuba moment” or a “Kissinger moment”. The first would be a major crisis leading to a purge of the alliances. It was de Gaulle who showed tireless solidarity with Washington during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. It was George W. Bush who, after the September 11 attacks, called on his allies to “at [eux] or against [eux] “. The second would be a diplomatic maneuver consisting of neutralizing a member of the opposing bloc, as the American Secretary of State had done in 1972 with the recognition of communist China.
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In the West, people sometimes dream of tearing Russia out of China’s embrace… It’s out of context. A reverse Kissingerian maneuver is not possible today. At the time, Beijing had an interest in loosening the Soviet grip, but now Moscow has nothing to gain by moving away from China. I don’t see what we could suggest to Russia to encourage it to reverse the course of Vladimir Putin’s conscious policy of a “Eurasian” orientation for a decade. And his defeat in Ukraine will further accentuate this. Russia leaves Europe…
The highlights of the Caen Forum
The fifth edition of the Normandy World Forum for Peace, of which Le Monde is a partner, will take place on September 23rd and 24th at the Abbaye aux Dames in Caen under the motto “Down with the walls! These restrictions that make wars. It will focus in particular on the war in Ukraine and its challenges. Among the highlights of the forum will be the debates ‘Europe, the return of the blocs? (on the 23rd, 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.), with Sabine Dullin, Nicole Gnesotto and Michael Duclosmoderated by Markus Semo, journalist at Le Monde; “Vladimir Putin and the post-Soviet space” (23rd, 2-3.30 p.m.), with Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean ; “International Institutions: From Condemnation to Action? (on the 23rd, 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.), with in particular Francois Rivasseau, Fabienne Keller and the Ukrainian Ambassador to France, Vadim Omelchenko.
The other crises have not been forgotten, above all Taiwan (23, 2:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.), with the participation of Francois WuManager of the representative office in Taipei in France, and Antoine Bondaz, Researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Algeria will be the focus of a meeting with the ex-ambassador in Algiers, Xavier Driencourt (on the 24th, 2:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.). There will also be a focus on the Uyghurs (on the 23rd, 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.). Jean Claude Samouiller, President of Amnesty International France.
Information and reservations: Normandiepourlapaix.fr
Dossier prepared in partnership with the Normandy World Peace Forum.