The news that Bryce Harper had broken his thumb was almost deafening when we heard it. We’d seen how awful that hit-by-pitch was, how Harper reacted, how everyone who saw it, including ourselves, reacted. It was one of those rare baseball moments when there was no doubt that what had just happened was horrible. Everyone could agree on that.
Harper will be out for at least six weeks, likely longer — the Phillies haven’t announced a specific timeline, but a broken thumb isn’t an injury you can typically speed healing by much. As Harper himself put it, “I can take it [a 98-mph pitch] in the face, but I can’t take 97 with my thumb.” (For what it’s worth, I don’t personally know very many people who can take a 98-mile pitch into the wall.) It obviously changes Harper’s season. But it’s also changing the contours of so much else in baseball.
How much changed when Blake Snell’s fastball broke Harper’s thumb? The whole National League might have changed. Here are five key changes after Harper’s injury.
1. The Phillies’ defense may have gotten better, but the team has obviously gotten a lot worse.
The irony of the absence of Harper — one of the few Phillies going into the season who is actually a good defender — perhaps enhancing the Phillies’ unreliable defense, is strong. Harper’s elbow injury, which he held back with surgery (and we’ll get to that in a moment), had limited him to the role of batsman-designate. This had big hitters but forced defensive liabilities like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to play on the field regularly.
Well, it turns out the Phillies have another vacancy at DH. Schwarber, Castellanos or any regular who needs a day off from the rigors of the pitch will go there now, and Matt Vierling or Mickey Moniak will play in midfield. Obviously none of these guys are close to hitter Harper. But they will improve outfield defence, especially with Odúbel Herrera likely to switch left. Phillies pitchers will appreciate it that way, anyway.
2. National League wild card racing just got a little less intense.
The Phillies wouldn’t be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they’re close and they were clearly set to be in the running to the bitter end. But when the Phillies fall behind without their best hitter — and while that’s possible, remember this is absolutely not what happened to the Braves last year — that’s nothing but great news for the Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, and (especially) the Braves and Marlins, who now may face a weakened Phillies team if they try to grab one of those three wild card spots.
Harper’s injury doesn’t mean the Phillies are toasted. But rest assured that none of these teams will mind if one team less suits them step by step the rest of the way.
3. If the Phillies are going to be bad soon, next year could be good for them.
Again, Harper needs elbow surgery so he can throw and play outfield again. It’s a question of when, not if. As long as he was batting as good as he was and as long as the Phillies were still in the pennant hunt, it made sense to delay the op and let him DH. But now? Well, we’ll see how the Phillies hold up, but if they’re out of the running over the next month and a half – something that certainly seems possible without their best hitter – the Phillies and Harper could opt for this operation out of the way and make him miss the rest of the season.
If the Phillies are still in the running, Harper could come back when his thumb heals and DH again. But if they fail, he could be ready to play outfield again next year. They could finally take care of the elbow. Not that anyone would have wished for that to happen.
4. There will be an additional slot for a batsman in the All-Star game.
Harper walked away with the National League’s first designated batsman spot, well ahead of second-seeker William Contreras of the Braves and third-seeker Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. Harper could still win on the DH court simply because of name recognition — although that’s not certain now — but it doesn’t matter if he does because he can’t play. So if your favorite player is not chosen in the NL he would have been blocked by Harper on the DH court; he won’t now. And hey: maybe there is now a late nostalgic boost for Pujols.
5. Harper’s historical numbers will take a hit.
At the end of the 2019 season, after hitting 35 homers in his freshman year with the Phillies, Harper needed to average 31.75 homers per year over the 12 years of his contract to reach 600. Reasonable, right ? It’s gotten a lot harder for him. Since then he has reached 13 (in the shortened 2020 season), 35 (last year) and now only 15 in 2022. He has nine years left on that Phillies contract and must now be averaging more than 35 years old. starting next year if he doesn’t come back this year. That’s a number he’s reached just three times in his 11-year career. Harper is an all-time talent, but every missed game counts. He had a chance to get to 600, but that chance has gone down a lot.