Nayib Bukele likes to make jokes about himself. When he graduated, he defined himself in the school yearbook as a class terrorist. It was his way of poking fun at what it means to be of Palestinian origin in a country, El Salvador, dominated by a white class with European roots. His way of dealing with adversity hasn't changed much over time. Two years ago, as criticism of his authoritarian governance began to intensify in the country, he changed his Twitter bio and described himself as the “coolest dictator in the world.” It had sparked a wave of sympathy around the world, particularly among young people who saw the cinematic videos showing hundreds of gang members tied up in prison yards. The act of mockingly calling himself the satrap of this small nation of 6.3 million people might be funny if the international community wasn't alarmed by the decline of democracy since he came to power four years ago. Years.
Its popularity within and outside its borders is overwhelming. Next Sunday, February 4th, according to all polls, he will again be elected President of El Salvador by an overwhelming majority. It won't even be necessary to go to a second round. His gelled hair, his carefully trimmed beard, his jeans, his backwards cap, his voice modulation trained to please will be present again in the daily lives of Salvadorans at least until 2028. After that, fate will show. . It comes despite up to six articles of the Salvadoran constitution expressly prohibiting consecutive re-election. However, the constitutional chamber he controls has made a more than questionable interpretation that would allow him to take part in the next elections if he left office six months earlier. This is exactly what Bukele has done, regularly accusing NGOs and nations that question his methods of destabilizing the good work he believes he has done in the country.
The success it has achieved in terms of security is undeniable, but at what cost? Bukele negotiated shortly after taking office in 2019 with El Salvador's main gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha 13 and Barrio 18 – which originated in Los Angeles, California and moved to the Central American country as the United States deported its mass members. Members in the late 1970s – but in March 2022 he broke the pact and introduced an emergency regime. In the previous days there had been 80 murders that had spread terror. But overnight everything changed in this country accustomed to violence. Authorities cracked down and arrested more than 70,000 people during this time. Peace has been imposed on neighborhoods dominated by gangs for decades. Extortion payments amounted to 3% of GDP and the annual cost of violence was 16%, a stratospheric figure. In 2023, El Salvador recorded 2.4 homicides per 100,000 residents, one of the lowest in Latin America, according to figures that some question, while before Bukele's arrival it had the highest rates in the world at 103.
It is enough to go to any gang-free neighborhood in San Salvador to hear hagiographic phrases about Bukele. He has an exaggerated self-image. “Bukele is courageous, complicated, authoritarian, he thinks quickly and has the ability to make decisions without worrying about the means. “He has no scruples,” says someone who has worked very closely with him over the phone. This desire to enforce their law at all costs has led to a blatant undermining of human rights. Human Rights Watch has denounced abuses during the emergency regime. Another significant number of organizations have documented torture, arbitrary detentions – a boy with Down syndrome – and suspicious deaths in prisons. Lawyers and relatives of prisoners complain that they have no contact with them and that they are subjected to virtual trials without witnesses. In his opinion, Bukele's system has proven to be almost infallible: he says the error rate in arrests is 1%.
Aerial view of a mural at the Zacamil apartment complex depicting President Nayib Bukele in the Salvadoran city of Mejicanos, Friday, January 26, 2024. CAMILO FREEDMAN (AFP)
Gustavo Flores-Macías, a professor of government and public policy at Cornell University in the US, believes the elections will serve as a referendum on Bukele's measures. Once the opposition is crushed, his Nuevas Ideas party will again have a majority in the Legislative Assembly, meaning it will continue to consolidate all power. The land is now yours. “The results in terms of public safety have exceeded the wildest predictions, but the costs in terms of human and individual rights have been significant,” explains Flores-Macías, who points out that due process has been disrupted and the authorities can almost imprison with complete freedom anyone they deem suspicious.
According to the scientist, the population seems to be of the opinion that the new panorama is definitely worth the price in view of human rights and the sustained erosion of counterweights to the president such as Congress or the judiciary. “If Bukele wins by a large margin, as expected, it will be a clear signal from Salvadorans that desperation in the face of insecurity is so great that the rule of law can take a back seat,” Valeria Vásquez, senior analyst at consultancy Control Risks for Central America, asserts that El Salvador has experienced a significant decline in democracy. “Bukele has changed the attorney general and several judges and basically there is no separation of powers anymore. And that will continue to get worse,” explains Vásquez.
She recognizes that Bukele's safety record is “visible on the street,” which is why he is enormously popular. He describes the president as someone who is personalistic and has authoritarian tendencies, which he believes can only get worse. “We will see a lot more from him in the next few years. “This is just the beginning,” he ventures. The Bukele method is causing a stir in countries in the region. The President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, has announced the construction of two Bukele-style prisons, given the serious crisis of insecurity that the country, also dominated by gangs, is experiencing. Mayors, lawmakers and governors from Peru, Chile, Argentina and the most unexpected places have pledged during the campaign that they will follow in his footsteps.
No one can stop Bukele, who delights in devouring everything around him. A few weeks ago a photo was taken with Messi and the entire Inter Miami squad. In September at the UN headquarters everyone was waiting for his speech. People were amazed at how this 42-year-old man, the son of a polygamous father with six wives and ten children, started out as the manager of a Yamaha dealer, ended up – for now – in a very short time. with the gangs, but in order to do so it has left fundamental rights in limbo. Salvadorans will overwhelmingly support him within seven days, as all indications are.
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