No, there was no real threat. When dozens of schools in Bulgaria were vacated and closed a few days ago because of bomb threats, Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev tried to calm down – also in view of the upcoming parliamentary elections. After all, a huge number of urns are set up in schools. But the electoral process would only be stopped if there was a real danger – and there was no such danger, Demerdzhiev assured.
It is the fifth time in two years that Bulgarians will be called to the polls on Sunday. They are already tired of it – participation in the last vote indicates this. In October, just over a third of the more than 6.6 million people eligible to vote cast their ballots. At that time, the conservative Gerb, who, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, determined Bulgarian politics for a decade, won. However, she no longer found enough allies to form a cabinet.
A head-to-head race is expected
Previously, the government of Kiril Petkov had collapsed, a hard-to-assemble and therefore fragile four-person coalition. The two Harvard graduates, Petkov and Assen Wassilew, with their reformist PP (We Keep the Change) party founded just over a year and a half ago, claimed to fight corruption in the poorest country in the EU. You were also involved in the mass demonstrations nearly three years ago, when Bulgarians took to the streets for weeks to protest against bribery, the oligarchy and the government.
Now, the PP is waiting for another chance. The party is running for election along with several other groups, including the bourgeois alliance Democratic Bulgaria. By current forecasts, they will likely be in a head to head race with Gerb: a quarter of those polled want to vote for one of the two blocs. The Turkish Minority Party (DPS) and the pro-Russian right-wing populist group Wazraschdane (Renaissance) could also count on seats in the 240-member National Assembly.
Dominated Bulgarian politics for a decade: Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissow (centre). – © afp / Nikolai Doikhinov
Is the southeastern European country threatened with another political deadlock? Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes of the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation (KAS) is “cautiously confident” that it will be possible to form a government after April 2. Because the pressure to do so is increasing both from within and without. “The parties understood that the Bulgarians are very tired: people do not find the sports discipline ‘We re-elected every six months’ unconvincing”, says the head of the KAS foreign office in Sofia: “Also internationally, it is expected that those in charge in Bulgaria finally come together to form a government.”
Especially since the programmatic differences in several important topics are not very great. Adherence to NATO and the EU is not being shaken, admission to the Schengen and euro zones is being sought – even if, in view of inflation and the rising cost of living, there are fears among the population that admission to the currency zone common may bring disadvantages.
The president as a strong man
There is also broad consensus in opposing Russia’s war on Ukraine. Even the pro-Russian forces that traditionally exist in Bulgaria cannot openly defend Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, military aid to Ukraine has long been controversial: then-Prime Minister Petkov and his Finance Minister Vasilev found unofficial ways to deliver ammunition and fuel to the invaded country. However, military support was approved in parliament in Sofia.
However, President Rumen Radev has repeatedly criticized this decision. The former fighter pilot and reserve major general has strengthened his position over the past two years. He has seen transitional governments come and go, flown to EU summits and expressed his views there. “He is seen as one of the strongest political figures in Bulgaria, even among the population,” says Beckmann-Dierkes. “It goes beyond his actual presidential role because Radew appoints governments and repeatedly makes policy statements.”
The fact that this might contradict the government’s line doesn’t seem to bother him. This was clear, for example, in the struggle for military support for Ukraine. According to the expert, these political dissonances also increase the pressure on politicians campaigning to form a government after the vote “if the country does not want to slip into a presidential system”.
expansion of nuclear power
Whoever is the next cabinet will have, among other things, the task of stimulating the economy. Although it is not evolving so badly: in the previous year it grew by a good three percent, the budget deficit was also around three percent. Former Prime Minister Petkow points out that social benefits and minimum wages were raised under his government.
However, inflation is high; it was about 14 percent. Energy security is also an issue. Bulgaria managed to get rid of its heavy dependence on Russian gas. Now nuclear power is about to be expanded and contracts for new nuclear reactors are ready to be signed. The Kozloduy nuclear power plant on the Danube already produces a good third of the electricity consumed in the country.
Some groups are struggling with other effects of the war in Ukraine. In recent days, Bulgarian grain producers have protested against duty-free Ukrainian exports, which are being subsidized by the EU. Farmers used tractors to block border crossings into Romania, which neighbors Ukraine.