On Saturday, the putschists accused France of helping Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, whom they say they sacked on Friday. Distrust of France in favor of Russia is also significant in Mali, Niger and the Central African Republic.
The attempted coup in Burkina Faso further confirms the diminution of French influence in West Africa, particularly in favor of a conquering Russia surfing on public opinion turned anti-Paris. While the situation in the country remains confused after the deposed head of state finally agreed to step down on Sunday, the negative dynamic for France is neither new nor anecdotal, and is gaining ground as jihadist contagion spreads. Armed groups are intensifying their strikes in the Sahel and moving towards the Gulf of Guinea.
Barely 24 hours after the start of the coup against Colonel Damiba, who himself came to power in a January coup, the coup leaders accused France of helping him regain power, which Paris immediately swept aside. They also affirmed their “firm will to go to other partners who are willing to help in the fight against terrorism”.
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An implicit reference to Russia, whose flags have been sighted in Burkina for the last two days. “The putschists register their actions very explicitly in a split between Russia and France,” noted Yvan Guichaoua, an expert on the region at the University of Kent, in Brussels on Saturday. “Very surprising to see the putschists so quick to declare their love for their privileged ‘strategic partner’. “We could have envisioned them taking power first and then raising the stakes,” he added on Twitter.
And the expert put forward two hypotheses: “Either cooperation with the Russians was the project from the start and we are dealing with a carefully thought-out destabilization plan, or we opportunistically invoke the France/Russia split to gain support, because the project is faltering.” . The French embassy in Ouagadougou was even attacked on Saturday. The slap is all the harder for Paris because it’s part of a strong trend.
Mali, the spark that ignited the powder
In neighboring Mali, France used the Barkhane anti-jihadist force against groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for nine years before witnessing a 2020 double coup that placed soldiers in charge of its presence were openly hostile. Until President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of French soldiers who are deployed elsewhere in the region. At the same time, soldiers from the private Russian mercenary company Wagner settled in the country, although Bamako spoke only of “Russian instructors”. Since then, Moscow’s influence there has grown, particularly through Russian social networks and media.
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A recent report by the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem), under the French Defense Ministry, described the “spreading of online disinformation content in Mali, mostly aimed at denigrating the French presence and justifying that of Russia.” . He also noted the contagion in neighboring Burkina. “The ‘land of honest men’ is one of the African countries targeted today,” write Wagner’s authors. For a year now, they have recorded very strong viewership growth on the French pages of the Russian media RT and Sputnik.
In Niger, the French military presence is again criticized
A contagion that also seems to be reaching neighboring Niger. On September 18, 2022, hundreds of people demonstrated on the streets of the capital Niamey and in Dosso (in the south-west of the country), notably to protest against the French force Barkhane, which is fighting jihadists in the Sahel. It was the first mobilization of its kind in the country.
Behind this mobilization are several civil organizations grouped under the M62 collective, which are demanding Barkhane’s departure, accusing him of destabilizing the Sahel, and unequivocally aligning themselves with the position of the junta in power in Mali.
“Following the multiple murders of our civilian population by the Barkhane force, expelled from Mali and illegally residing on our territory, which they consider seized to carry out their catastrophic plan to destabilize the Sahel, we reiterate our opposition to the French military presence in our country. and demand his immediate departure,” the M62 then bluntly declared.
A discourse shared by other civil society organizations such as the Pan-African Network for Peace, Democracy and Development (Reppad), a structure linked to key civic organizations in Burkina Faso and Mali.
These rallies were then punctuated with anti-French and pro-Russian slogans: “Barkhane out”, “Down with (France)”, “France out”, “Long live Putin and Russia”. As in Niger and Burkina, Russian flags were waved alongside Nigerian and Malian flags.
In the Central African Republic
But distrust of the French military presence on the continent is not the prerogative of the Sahel. This also applies to the Central African Republic, where diplomatic relations with France have been deteriorating for several years, especially since France withdrew from the country after almost three years of presence by ending Operation Sangaris in October 2016. The Minusca (UN force) to manage the security of the country alone. A decision badly perceived at the time by Central Africans, who saw it as “giving up” amid a crisis, Ouest France reports.
A retreat that Russia, in turn, was able to exploit by sending military trainers, weapons or initiating peace processes to reconcile militias. And by installing the controversial paramilitary group Wagner there.
At the same time, Russia has approached various influential civil society organizations such as the National Galaxy. Last May, she was the starting point of a strong mobilization in Bangui to demand the departure of Minusca and the French media RFI, described at the time as a “propaganda tool for France through its grotesque media noise full of lies staged with the visible target.” , damaging the image of the Central African Republic and its allies (…)”.
Faced with the spread of disinformation campaigns fueled by Russia, Emmanuel Macron decided on June 7 to suspend France’s budgetary and military aid to the Central African Republic. In an exchange with his Central African counterpart on June 1, the president even regretted being “held hostage by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.” In doing so, they shake up diplomatic relations, which have not really warmed up since then.
“The Russian Offer”
Beyond the Sahel — and the Central African Republic — France’s decline in influence in West Africa, in the heart of what was once its “backyard,” is evident. “We are at the end of a cycle. If we continue along the same path, there is a strong risk of France being strategically expelled from key spaces and key interests,” Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), told AFP last May).
“Democratic conditionality puts us at odds with regimes that are completely in retreat on this point and do not hesitate to assert competition with competitors that do not base their support on internal criteria,” he added, citing there the “Russian offer”.
Soon Senegal and Ivory Coast?
Paris left Mali, promising not to give up the fight against the jihadists who openly threaten the countries of the Gulf of Guinea. Talks are to be held between Paris and the African law firms, but France has insisted on discretion.
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“We are changing the paradigm (…). Today, the operation with an armada is no longer up to date,” Colonel Hubert Beaudoin, deputy operations manager of Barkhane in Niamey (Niger), summed up this summer to AFP. An obviously unfavorable time for Paris .
“Who’s next?” A West African security source ironically asked AFP, citing the coup in Burkina. “It’s calm in Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, but the wind ”France Releases” is also blowing”. France may have to leave Burkina. Around 400 soldiers are present there with the Saber Force, special forces training Burkinabe soldiers near Ouagadougou. A departure deemed “safe” by a military source interviewed by AFP and deployed several times in the Sahel.