At dawn on a cool October morning in 2023, rocket fire falls on military positions in northern Burma. The start of a rebel offensive that continues to shake the ruling junta like never before, three years after its coup.
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This October 27, the scene is repeated over a hundred kilometers in Shan State, heralding an unprecedented offensive against the junta, called “Operation 1027,” carried out by an alliance of armed ethnic groups.
Since the coup on February 1, 2021, the Tatmadaw, the regular army, has exhausted itself fighting the dozens of armed militias made up of young pro-democracy activists who have gone underground in various regions of the country.
But the Brotherhood Alliance, which unites three powerful ethnic armed groups, remains largely in the background.
Things changed in late October when the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) decided to take advantage of the weakening of the regular armed forces to revive decades-old war to control entire territories and the important resources they contain.
Equipped with rudimentary bombs dropped by modified civilian drones, its experienced fighters quickly won one victory after another, capturing numerous military bases and seizing strategic road axes, particularly for trade with neighboring China.
Low morale
The success of Operation 1027 sparked dissension within the normally tight-knit junta, triggered mass exodus of soldiers fleeing by the thousands to India and China, and sparked unprecedented public criticism from some prominent regime supporters.
“The junta has never been so weak,” Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia told AFP, adding that “it now appears possible that the army (…) will suffer a series of significant defeats.”
A ceasefire brokered in early January by Beijing, a junta ally, generally ended fighting in Shan State and allowed the MNDAA and TNLA to consolidate their power there.
Starting with the border town of Laukkai (population 25,000), the capital of gambling, prostitution and drug trafficking, just a stone's throw from China. The six generals held responsible for the loss of the city now face the death penalty.
But clashes continue elsewhere, particularly in Rakhine state in the west, where the AA claimed on January 25 to have captured the port of Pauktaw and to control several positions near the Indian border.
According to military sources who wished to remain anonymous, morale is at its lowest within the army, including among officers.
Earlier this month, a monk addressed a crowd in Pyin Oo Lwin, a town with an elite military academy, and called on junta leader Min Aung Hlaing to resign – a message that was shared widely on social media.
“Extreme violence”
But analysts say it is still too early to predict a fall of the junta or a change in leadership.
The Alliance of Brotherhood's roadmap is unclear, particularly its intention – or not – to go beyond regional ambitions and engage in the fight for democracy.
The TNLA is therefore silent on possible military targets outside the territory it claims in Shan State. A source close to the MNDAA said the group was working to set up a new administration in Laukkai, without giving details.
However, significant losses on the battlefield could lead generals to gamble on everything.
“Terror and extreme violence, rape and torture, looting and burning of villages have long been operational military doctrines,” David Mathieson, an independent expert on Burma, told AFP.
“The SAC (State Administrative Council, as the junta calls itself) believes that consistent atrocities and heavy firepower will ensure the regime's survival,” he believes.