Comment on this storyComment
As the mercenary commander, whose fortune hunters had fought alongside regular Russian troops in Ukraine, led his menacing march toward Moscow, President Vladimir Putin accused the mutineers of “treason.”
But after the Kremlin offered a desperate deal to stop an advance that got within 200 kilometers of the Russian capital, former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin was not condemned as a traitor but hailed as a hero by a crowd of Russians.
“We’re keeping our fingers crossed for you!” exclaimed a woman in Rostov-on-Don, home of Russia’s Southern Command, which was taken unopposed by Prigozhin’s fighters on Saturday. The 62-year-old warlord, who runs Russia’s dark Wagner group, rolled down the window of his black SUV to greet well-wishers and take selfies.
“Sound Health!” said one man, verified videos show. “We support you!” said another.
In contrast, the top Russian officials whom Prigozhin wanted to publicly oust – including Putin’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov – were nowhere to be seen on Sunday.
Even the whereabouts of Putin, whose treason charges typically mean jail time or worse for his unfortunate victims, became the subject of speculation on Sunday. Some Russians (and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy) wondered loudly if he had fled the capital – prompting the Kremlin to take the unusual step of insisting he had not fled.
What just happened in Russia? The Wagner Crisis Explained.
In Russia, meanwhile, dogged military bloggers ridiculed the rushed “defense” of Moscow. And in western capitals, intelligence analysts wondered if Putin had refused to arrest Prigozhin because he feared his officials would disobey his orders.
The dizzying events confronted Russians on Sunday with a new reality in which the powerful authorities running the authoritarian state — and waging its war in Ukraine — are displaying not the omnipotence they have painstakingly cultivated, but vulnerability . Not inevitability, but uncertainty.
Not strength, but weakness.
“There is currently a very heated discussion about what that was and what the consequences should be,” said Sergei Markov, a political adviser with ties to the Kremlin. “What is certain is that everyone agrees that this should never have happened and that something has to change. …
“Everyone more or less agrees that we shouldn’t have private armies that are almost out of control anymore.”
After Saturday’s drama, a certain calm returned to Russia on Sunday – but an air of uncertainty remained. The Kremlin’s ceasefire with Prigozhin appeared to be holding, but an emergency decree on Moscow’s “anti-terrorist” decree remained in effect.
Prigozhin’s fighters, who appeared to have entered key installations unopposed before launching their lightning attack on Moscow, withdrew from Rostov-on-Don as stipulated in the Kremlin accords. But enthusiastic spectators cheered them on. Their withdrawal from another city, Voronezh, about 300 miles south of Moscow, was confirmed by regional officials via Telegram.
Residents cheered as Wagner Group mercenaries left the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don on June 24. (Video: Portal)
The deal was negotiated through an unlikely intermediary: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, whose country has become almost a vassal state of Russia. Putin said this month he has sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which lies between Russia and Ukraine.
The fact that Moscow was relying on Lukashenko, seen by some as Putin’s pale puppet, to defuse the crisis raised eyebrows and questions about long-standing assumptions about the extent of Putin’s authority.
There was no sign of blatant disloyalty to Putin among senior Russian officials. But during the 24-hour uprising, observers noted, reactions from some of them ranged from general calls for Russian unity to silence as they seemingly waited to see which side would win.
“He had to get help from Lukashenko!” exclaimed Liana Fix, European Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “I mean, how embarrassing is that? And the statements of support for Putin [by his own officials] were not passionate. Many have remained silent or offered pro forma support.
“It’s time to ask: How could Putin allow this to happen?”
After a brief armed uprising, a mercenary convoy returns from Moscow
“What was missing was a sense of universal acceptance of Putin,” said Maria Snegovaya, a Russia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Now they say he was great and strong. But I don’t think we’ve seen immediate support for Putin in that time.”
US spy services received information in mid-June that Prigozhin, who claims to have 25,000 fighters under his command, had planned an insurgency. He had engaged in a brutal tussle with Russian defense officials over what he believed to be mishandling of the Ukraine war, failure to support his mercenaries and corruption. But his setback still seemed to surprise the Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Putin was “very scared” and was probably in hiding after the Wagner mercenary group uprising. (Video: Portal)
Prigozhin, who was close to Putin for a long time, became rich through government concessions. It was his relationship with the President and the care he took not to criticize him directly that enabled him to attack other senior officials.
Inside Russia, the event raised questions about a hallmark of Putin’s presidency: his practice of devolving spheres of influence to close allies and then allowing them to do as they please.
“The fact that he gave Prigozhin a private army is also part of that strategy,” said political adviser Markov. “Perhaps this strategy should be rejected.”
As the insurgency in Russia subsides, the US and its allies prepare for what comes next
Another weakness, Markov said, is the failure of Putin’s security services to adequately inform the president of Prigozhin’s intentions.
“They failed either because they did poor work,” he said, “or perhaps because they were not allowed to include their agents in the Wagner group.”
One possible outcome, Markov said, is a “restructuring” in Russia’s defense ministry and security services. Putin could still fire Shoigu – not because Prigozhin demanded it, he said, but because during the mutiny more troops supported the mercenary leader than the defense minister.
After the deal was announced, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that nothing had changed that could shake Putin’s confidence in Shoigu.
Inside Russia, Prigozhin’s mutiny shook the most ardent supporters of the Ukraine war, while seemingly cheering those whose dissent was brutally repressed. Many Russian military bloggers took the official line and condemned Prigozhin when he announced his march. They expressed dismay at the support the rebels were receiving.
But many also called for Shoigus to be dismissed. Some were frustrated that the defusing agreement allowed the mutineers to escape punishment.
One influential blogger, Mikhail Swinchuk, wrote that there are “undoubtedly” questions about Russia’s military leadership because the war has “gone in the wrong direction.” But he also criticized the deal. “The question is in the air: who will pay for the deaths of Russian soldiers during the ‘March for Justice’ and how?”
US spies learned in mid-June that Prigozhin was planning armed action in Russia
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, a pro-Moscow fighter group in eastern Ukraine, wrote that he would “never understand those who shouted glory to Wagner supporters and rejoiced that someone had challenged the authorities.” Our country will never be the same again. The column of Wagnerians didn’t move across the asphalt – they moved through people’s hearts, dividing society in two.”
Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander in Ukraine convicted in The Hague of murder over the downing of Malaysia Airlines airliner MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, condemned both sides. For a long time he was a sharp critic of Shoigu and was also at odds with Prigozhin.
“Of course I understand – that I am a toxic product of bygone eras,” he wrote on Telegram on Sunday. He expressed his longing for a time when there was “no farce so hideous.”
Back then, he said, “scum, bandits, and traitors weren’t amnested, they were hanged, and indeed there were wild times.”
A military blogger with 385,000 Telegram followers poked fun at Russia’s “defense” of Moscow. Below a photo of security forces stacking some sandbags at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Moscow, he wrote: “Sandbags? Seriously? Folks, when preparing for battle, don’t be lazy and dig trenches. Any heavy machine gun can handle those sacks in seconds, let alone something heavier.”
In the West, leaders and analysts watched the crisis with a mixture of glee and astonishment. Some called for a realignment of Western thought based on Putin’s authority.
“The big unanswered question is: could Putin have ordered a deadly airstrike against Prigozhin,” said Bob Seely, a member of the UK Parliament and a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee that has been investigating the Wagner group for the past two years. “Could Putin actually have killed Prigozhin along the way, or was it so bad for Putin that he couldn’t?”
Wagner has benefited from security treaties and blackmailing oil, diamond and gold mining industries in countries like Syria, Libya and the Central African Republic.
The notoriously brutal gang of mercenaries also acted as proxies in furthering the Kremlin’s political goals. His role expanded with Russia’s efforts to keep Ukraine under its control, when Wagner mercenaries trained and supported Russian separatists in Donbass after the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014.
The fierce – and mutual – animosity between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership had been building for months before becoming public. In February, Prigozhin posted a highly personal diatribe against Shoigu and Gerasimov on social media.
Prigozhin, who had sent waves of convicts to Ukrainian lines in an attempt to win a victory in the war’s longest battle at Bakhmut, blamed the appalling slaughter, the lack of ammunition, and the undermining of the military by their corruption and greed on the military leadership.
The breaking point appears to have been reached on June 10, US intelligence officials said, when the Russian military leadership effectively ditched Prigozhin’s mercenary force. Although Wagner was not credited by name, the Department of Defense issued an executive order stating that all volunteer departments were required to sign contracts with the government. Prigozhin publicly condemned the decree.
US and Ukrainian intelligence and military officials saw these developments as a possibility that Prigozhin would move against the Russian military and possibly even spark a civil war.
Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the brief rebellion showed “cracks in the facade” of Putin’s authoritarian leadership.
“It’s too early to say exactly where this will lead,” he said on CNN’s State of the Union. “I’m guessing this is a moving film and we haven’t seen the last act yet.”
Greg Miller contributed to this report.
Give this item as a gift
Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Check out 3 more stories