Javier Milei, during a rally. Natacha Pisarenko (AP/LaPresse
Democracy in Argentina is at a crossroads. At the moment when it celebrates 40 years of democracy, the longest period of democracy this country has ever experienced, it faces the particular danger of electing Javier Milei as president, a candidate with explicitly anti-democratic behavior and proposals and, in some cases openly authoritarian.
At Southern Affairs, we recently conducted a study measuring the level of authoritarianism of presidential candidates in Argentina. The report uses the theoretical framework developed by Steven Levistky and Daniel Ziblatt in their book How Democracies Die (Editorial Ariel, 2018) and seeks to understand the paradox of how democracies are currently being undermined primarily by democratically elected leadership.
The work of Levitsky and Ziblatt develops four Warning signs of authoritarian behavior. These dimensions and their respective indicators were used as a reference in the Southern Affairs study to assess the level of authoritarianism of presidential candidates based on their public statements. When assessing the interventions of Milei and his close team, virtually all alarms about threats to democracy are raised. I’ll come back to some of them here.
A first dimension that Levitsly and Ziblatt propose is rejection (or low commitment) to the rules of the democratic game. In a television interview, in which Milei answered the question “Do you believe in democracy?”: “I think it contains many errors,” and in cross-examination he evades the answer by responding to Arrow’s sentence. According to this theorem, there is no way to reach a satisfactory decision by democratic means if one has to choose between different alternatives. Likewise, he has stated on several occasions that he will take measures that blatantly violate the national constitution. For example, after the primaries, he claimed: “We are facing the end of the caste model, which is based on the atrocity that where there is a need there is a right, but they forget that someone has to pay for it.” Its biggest aberration social justice”, which contradicts Article 14bis. He and representatives of his circle are also proposing the promotion of an unconstitutional law to “ban public demonstrations”. On other occasions they questioned the legitimacy of the elections, as Guillermo Francos, likely interior minister if elected president, said: “Let the electoral chamber say what it wants, we have proven that there was fraud”, without file a formal complaint for respect.
A second dimension relates to the denial of the legitimacy of his political rivals. Milei repeatedly described his opponent Patricia Bullrich as “a bunch of bomb throwers,” the Kirchnerists as “political jets,” and left-wing leaders as “collectivist sons of bitches.” He became even more violent towards Rodríguez Larreta, telling him: “Like the shitty leftist.” [sic] What are you, you can’t even shine a liberal’s shoes, damn it [sic]. I can even crush you in a wheelchair, let’s see if you understand that.
A third dimension that the authors suggest is tolerance or promotion of violence. Faced with the attempted assassination of former President Fernández de Kirchner, Milei considered it a mere crime, claiming: “… when it concerns a member of the caste, hypocrites appear.” At the same time, the representative of his room, Ramiro Marra, stated that “we “the leaders of the Piqueteros will be put in prison” and repeatedly describes them as “criminals”. Milei has also praised repressive practices or human rights violations. In the presidential debate, he justified state repression during the civil-military dictatorship of 1976-83 with the argument: “In the 1970s there was a war in which the state forces committed excesses,” repeating arguments used by the genocider Videla himself had. Likewise, he and his vice president have repeatedly disputed the 30,000 missing figure, a key figure for human rights defenders in Argentina.
A fourth dimension is the willingness to restrict the civil liberties of opponents, including the press. Milei has repeatedly threatened to take legal or punitive action against political leaders, civil society and the media. “It is not my fault that there are corrupt journalists who are dedicated to lying,” and he specifically told one journalist, “If I become president, you will no longer work.”
Argentina is already in a delicate situation of economic crisis, growing poverty and social exclusion, insecurity and very low legitimacy of the political class. These factors have caused enormous frustration among citizens and are a breeding ground for the emergence of disruptive messages against the establishment and the status quo. Milei, now the favorite in most polls, is the main candidate for change. However, the change he proposes raises concerns about transforming the democratic life that cost so much to build in Argentina.
Even if he does not win in the November 19 elections, his positions and ideas will certainly remain on the country’s political agenda. Therefore, it will be an enormous challenge for democratic forces in the coming years to reconstruct a social contract that promotes the recovery and expansion of democracy.
Matias Bianchi He is director of Global South Affairs, a think tank dedicated to democratic innovation in the Global South. He holds a doctorate in political science from the Paris Institute for Political Studies. @matiasfbianchi
Complete report: Traffic Light of Authoritarianism in Argentina – 2023 Presidential Elections. Southern Affairs.