Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a meeting in Caracas on March 23. MIRAFLORES PALACE (via Portal)
In the coming weeks, the government of Colombian President Gustavo Petro will host an international conference on Venezuela. It’s a risky proposition, but with the right approach, it could be an excellent opportunity to rethink the international response to the deep Venezuelan crisis.
Across America, the crisis in Venezuela has disappeared from the headlines. In the six years since the Lima Group was formed, the coalition of Latin American governments formed to promote a democratic solution in Venezuela seems to have died a slow and gradual death. With government changes across the hemisphere in recent years, not even Lima is now part of the Lima Group, and the future of the group is unclear.
In this context, President Gustavo Petro’s proposal to organize an international conference in Colombia to define a “roadmap” in Venezuela is a very welcome initiative. As a neighboring country and recipient of more than two million migrants and refugees fleeing authoritarianism, human rights abuses and a humanitarian emergency, Colombia is well-positioned to convene an international diplomatic initiative aimed at ensuring the crisis in Venezuela is not forgotten.
There are still questions about the strategy of the Petro government in Venezuela. But there are also opportunities in the current situation. While the Colombian government is trying to re-establish diplomatic and commercial ties with Venezuela, it has also been trying to explore how Venezuela could rejoin the Inter-American human rights system.
This two-pronged approach by Petro – an interest in speaking out about human rights in Venezuela but recognizing the need to communicate with the de facto government in Caracas – could be the basis for an innovative strategy that would international community can follow steps towards a gradual democratic opening of Venezuela. In fact, this is more or less the de facto position of the United States, which has sent diplomatic officials to Caracas to meet with Maduro, despite acknowledging that he has no democratic mandate. This appears to be the future of the international response to Venezuela. But in order for there to be a clear roadmap, it is important that the Petro administration considers some aspects of the situation within Venezuela as well as the international community.
Political reality in Venezuela has changed since 2019. The Venezuelan opposition, aware that Juan Guaidó’s “interim government” no longer has the support of the majority of the population, has abandoned this experiment and is now actively working on a return to electoral participation strategy. Today, the opposition’s greatest hope rests in a negotiation process with the Maduro government, which has led to a series of deals announced in Mexico. They know it won’t be easy, but they believe that the possibility of easing certain sanctions could prompt the government to press ahead with reforms to allow for more credible elections in 2024.
That is why it is so important that Petro’s plans for a conference on Venezuela find a way to strengthen the ongoing negotiation process and the parties’ existing agreements and commitments. In 2021, the Maduro government and opposition in Mexico signed an ambitious plan to discuss seven points, namely:
- Political rights for all.
- Election guarantees for everyone. Election plan for observable elections.
- lifting of sanctions. restoration of property rights.
- Respect for the constitutional rule of law.
- Political and social coexistence. Refrain from violence. Reparations for victims of violence.
- Protection of the national economy and social protection measures for the Venezuelan people.
- Guarantees for the implementation, monitoring and verification of the agreement.
This began a process that, at least on paper, ranges from the restoration of the constitutional state to the compensation of the victims. As part of that process, the parties announced in November 2022 a comprehensive humanitarian agreement in Mexico to address the humanitarian emergency in Venezuela, with support from the United Nations, using billions of dollars in funds currently frozen by sanctions.
Although the parties haven’t returned to Mexico to announce new deals since November, that doesn’t mean the process is dead. It seems that Mexico has become a notary for agreements already made, not for a multitude of technical talks. The implementation of the humanitarian agreement, as well as the other items on the negotiating agenda, are currently being discussed by the parties who publicly acknowledge who speak in Caracas.
Given the advanced nature of this process, there is no need to announce a new parallel dialogue mechanism. The Petro administration seems to understand this, given the recent statements by Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, who clarified that the aim of the conference is “to convene a meeting with countries from Latin America and Europe to promote dialogue, which will be continued in Mexico should”.
Even if it is not necessary to announce a new dialogue process, this does not mean that there is no clear role for the international community. In fact, the agreed agenda of the ongoing process mentions a “Friends of the Process Group” which has not yet been created. The fact is that such an international statement of support, consistent with the existing negotiating framework, can be useful not only in Venezuela but also in the United States. This may be one of the reasons why the first country to embrace the idea of the Petro, even before the conference date was published, was the United States. The conference could help create incentives in Washington, too, where Venezuela is not always a priority, to continue supporting the ongoing negotiations. All the more reason to ensure that this conference ends with a clear focus on strengthening the ongoing negotiations rather than starting from scratch.
Geoff Ramsey is a Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. His research focuses on United States foreign policy towards Colombia and Venezuela.
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