Dominating in the youth ranks doesn’t automatically mean filling the nets later in the NHL. Talk to Jack Hughes and Alexis Lafrenière recently, or even Joe Thornton and Vincent Lecavalier.
So what can you expect from Connor Bedard, who has enormous expectations? How many points can he realistically score in his first season in the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks? Let’s try to answer this question.
In order to achieve the most realistic projection possible, we first contacted our friends at the company Sportlogiq, which specializes in advanced sports analysis.
What do the numbers say?
Our question was quite simple: Going back to your first sports analyses, i.e. in 2016-2017, the best rookie performances were those of Mathew Barzal (85 points in 83 games in 2017-2018), Auston Matthews (69 points in 82 PD in 2016-2017), Elias Pettersson (66 points with 71 PD in 2018-2019), Clayton Keller (65 points with 82 PD in 2017-2018) and Patrik Laine (64 points with 73 PD in 2016 –2017).
What did they have in common in each of these seasons?
The answer: On every occasion, these rookies were among the NHL’s top 30 players in at least one of seven facets of the game analyzed.
In other words, each of them has been an NHL elite in some part of their game since their freshman season.
In the case of Barzal, whose 85 points tied with Evgeni Malkin for the third-best performance by a rookie in more than 30 years, he ranked first in the Bettman circuit in time of possession in the offensive zone.
Matthews finished the 2016–2017 season with the second-most shots in the league, resulting in a 40-goal season.
In its analysis, Sportlogiq also provided us with the statistics compiled by Bedard last season in the Western Junior League (WHL) for the same seven categories. In five of them he took first place.
“Unsurprisingly, he has completely dominated the WHL in every aspect, so it would not be surprising to see him immediately ranked in the top 30 in at least one key category, probably more than one,” Sportlogiq concluded.
Who will he play with?
Another element we can predict without a crystal ball is who will be near him.
It doesn’t take advanced stats to realize that, on paper, the Chicago Blackhawks aren’t going to be a powerhouse in the NHL. Really not.
The organization has signed several veterans, including Taylor Hall, who scored 36 points in 61 games in Boston last season, as well as Corey Perry and Nick Foligno. For the latter two, their commitment comes more from their presence in the locker room than their offensive contributions on the ice.
In addition to Hall, Tyler Johnson, Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh, Lukas Reichel and Andreas Athanasiou are the names that logically come to mind for a position in the top 6 and the first two waves of the power play.
In comparison, Barzal spent most of the 2017-2018 calendar as part of a trio completed by Anthony Beauvillier and Jordan Eberle, playing on the first unit of the New York Islanders’ massive offense with John Tavares.
The player who probably came closest to, if not surpassing, Barzal was Connor McDavid in 2015 and 2016. The Edmonton Oilers forward scored 48 points in his first 45 games before suffering an injury that ended his Season ended. At that rate he would have scored 88 points in 82 games.
And he did it, even though his three main partners were Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov.
So, how many points?
Connor Bedard won’t have much support in Chicago and some nights will be very complicated for coach Luke Richardson’s team.
There is no doubt that the young number 98 will be the cornerstone of the Hawks’ attack and therefore the focal point of all opposing teams. But is this really new?
Last season with the Regina Pats, Bedard was often alone on his island, but that didn’t stop him from posting a season-high 143 points in 57 games. For comparison: In his last season in the WHL before moving to the NHL, Barzal collected 79 points in 41 games. If we extrapolate that to 57 games like Bedard did, that would have given him 110 points.
And Barzal was 19, compared to 17 for the new sensation.
Therefore, it is not unrealistic to believe that Bedard can flirt with Barzal’s 85 points. Can he get closer to the last two rookies to record 100 points in 2005-06, Sidney Crosby (102) and Alex Ovechkin (106)? Maybe not, considering he’ll have very little support in Chicago.
Given his young age and the team that will surround him, he is projected to have a season with 78 points in 82 games.