Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, Russia, March 18, 2022.
Sergei Guneyev | Sputnik | Reuters
As if his reputation wasn’t bad enough prior to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is now widely seen as unstable, unreliable and untrustworthy – and those are the more lavish descriptions of a leader who ordered and oversaw violent and destructive aggression has over Russia’s smaller neighbor.
The invasion has prompted analysts and keen observers of Russia to question not only whether Putin has a moral compass, but also his realism, geopolitical strategy, and claims to power.
In particular, many pundits question whether the invasion of Ukraine — which had unintended consequences for Russia, leaving it on the brink of economic ruin while uniting most of the international community against it — spectacularly backfired on Putin, leaving him vulnerable to an insurgency at home when living standards plummet, or a coup led from within by members of its political and business elite.
“The solution starts with naming the problem — the problem is a mad dictator who has essentially detached himself from reality in over 20 years in power, and he is absolutely delusional and willing to do whatever he can to destabilize the global order,” said Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician and former deputy energy minister now based in Lithuania, told CNBC on Wednesday. CNBC has requested a response to the Kremlin’s comments and is awaiting a response.
US President Joe Biden was in hot water over the weekend for implying that Putin “cannot stay in power” in Russia, with the White House later backtracking on those comments and saying it does not advocate regime change.
Milov defended Biden, saying he only said what everyone is thinking. “Western leaders have finally acknowledged the problem for what it is, that of Putin’s continued hold on power, the central challenge to world peace, prosperity and stability.”
regime change?
It is widely believed that Putin derived his power from protecting and enriching a business elite and from persecuting Russia’s political opposition, the most prominent of whom is Alexei Navalny, who has been jailed on widely trumped-up charges.
Putin is also said to be surrounded by “siloviki” or “strong men” who were former colleagues of his at the KGB (the predecessor of the Russian security service FSB) or come from military and security services such as the GRU (the foreign military intelligence service) or the FSO – the Federal Protection Service, an agency of the federal government believed to have around 50,000 employees responsible for protecting senior state officials, the most senior being the President.
The FSO includes the Russian Presidential Security Service, the Presidential Personal Security Service. The FSO is reported to be responsible for the safe transport of the nuclear case – a specially fitted briefcase used to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
When it comes to an internal coup, Milov said, it’s important “not to have rosy hopes about it,” as it would be extremely difficult to break down the barriers Putin has erected to keep himself from falling.
“It’s different from Soviet times, when we had a more or less legitimate governing body like the Politburo, which could have removed the Secretary General. We don’t have that anymore, now it’s just the President against a complete vacuum.”
He noted that anyone brave enough to unseat Putin must somehow “prove that everyone has to obey their orders.” Second, Milov said that “everyone is under 24-hour security surveillance” and that any group of officers “even with a gathering of two or three people” would be suspected and reported immediately.
Milov noted that while relations between various military, paramilitary and security structures are very strained, “Putin has his own 50,000-strong security service, which is governed by none other than him and which also includes communications to get him can’t cut it,” he said.
Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told CNBC on Wednesday that it’s extremely difficult to gauge sentiment in Putin’s inner circle and in the higher echelons of the military.
“This is a closed political system, Vladimir Putin is very paranoid, very controlled, and we don’t know what people are thinking – things have happened that surprised us all – there are fuel shortages, there is low morale, the Russians “We’re not prepared and they’re not playing their A-game, but the idea that there will be a palace coup and the Russian military will overthrow Putin, I don’t think so, it’s very, very unlikely,” she said.
Coup unlikely unless..
Putin’s ouster by members of the security services and/or the military is still highly unlikely, but analysts have noted that it cannot be ruled out if the economic impact of international sanctions becomes too great for many Russians.
If it were to happen, Henry Rome, director of global macro research at Eurasia Group, and his team wrote in a note Tuesday: “We believe this will be caused by resentment at Putin’s continuation of a losing war and political and economic isolation.” would due to sanctions.”
A possible fall of Putin is foreseeable in two scenarios, they stated:
First, in a situation where the conflict is reaching an unstable stalemate, with continued, hard fighting but limited territorial changes. In this scenario, Russia would exercise “weak control” over most of south-eastern Ukraine and parts of central and north-eastern Ukraine, and while negotiations with Ukraine for a peace deal would make some progress, they would produce no diplomatic solution and no sanctions would settle intensify.
In the second scenario, Putin’s position could become increasingly vulnerable if he orders an escalation in the conflict, with Russian forces attacking Kyiv and trying to establish broader and tighter control in eastern Ukraine. In this scenario, “sanctions and Western support for the Ukrainian military escalate [and there are] broader macroeconomic fallout, particularly in Europe.” This scenario could also lead to a direct air battle between NATO and Russia over Ukraine’s borders, the analysts noted.
In either scenario, Putin’s downfall could follow if Russia’s elites are convinced that “Putin is risking catastrophe for Russia and for them personally.”
Putin’s reputation is ‘in tatters’
It is widely believed that Russia expected an easy victory when it invaded Ukraine. But the conflict, now entering its fifth week, has been anything but, with Russian forces facing a quagmire in many parts of the country.
Although Russian forces will capture the southern port city of Mariupol, which has been under siege for weeks and staunchly defended by Ukrainian militants, Russia has only taken the city of Kherson so far, and even their power seems shaky. There, as elsewhere, Ukrainian forces have begun counterattacking to repel Russian troops in a major battle that has drained Russia’s manpower and military capabilities.
It is now expected that Russia could try to forge a deal with Ukraine to save face and be able to win some kind of victory at home as a broader occupation of Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv like impossible targets appear.
A view shows an armored convoy of pro-Russian troops in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on a road leading to the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, March 28, 2022.
Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters
“Putin’s image as a tactical/strategic genius is in tatters,” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, in emailed comments on Tuesday.
“In the run-up to the war, the main argument used by the Kremlin to explain why they wouldn’t go to war in Ukraine was that they weren’t stupid enough to do exactly what the Americans wanted them to do and drag themselves into a war left Ukraine, similar to US wages in Iraq and Afghanistan. Imagine if Putin really was that stupid. Even more stupid, because even though he knew the risk, he did it anyway.”
Ash said that the way Russia has waged this war, launching an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation and conducting indiscriminate bombing raids on cities and civilian targets, has made Russia and Putin “international pariahs, and likely will be for long.” Time”.
“The reputational damage was immense,” he noted.