How many of the weapons sent from the West actually reached the front? The outcome of the war depends on the answer: therefore
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ZAPORIZHZHIA (UKRAINE) Shut the skies, say dozens of Ukrainian children in a patriotic commercial aired continuously on TV. If you would only close the sky, a giant soldier sighs at the Zaporizhya railway station. from above who are massacring us. Wounded at the front, he returns home on leave. bomb splinters. air of course. Close the sky, President Zelenskyy repeated for days.
The skies Ukrainians speak of are fighter bombers and attack helicopters carrying missiles and bombs capable of digging 5 meter craters, knocking down buildings and panicking those below.
Sky also means missiles coming from the Crimean base or from ships on the Black Sea, you can see them flying towards Kyiv or Lviv from Zaporizhya or Dnipro. If you don’t see them, worry. Even on your stomach half a kilometer from the point of impact, the shock wave would kill you from internal bleeding.
In recent days, Zelenskyi seems to have given up on NATO toppling the Russians Mig and Sukhoi. A jet battle would mean World War III. So no sealing of the skies, but guerrilla weapons at will.
The West has provided the money, has started dispatching, a new batch of Javelins and Stingers are on the way, but it’s unclear how many Western weapons actually made it to the front lines. And here lies the key for the next few days.
Either Russia soon manages to capture key positions or the guns are coming and there could be trouble for the already disintegrated Russian columns. heaven or no heaven.
Significant Russian victories include capturing cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv, or even encircling Ukrainian troops defending Donbass (about half of the regular army). At this point, Putin would have much to do at the negotiating table. But when manageable antitank and shouldermounted antiaircraft drones arrive, Ukraine’s military may no longer be at a disadvantage.
The Russians are 200,000 with heavy weapons, the Ukrainians would be 40 million with smart weapons.
To stop a two million T72 tank, it takes a $250,000 Javelin antitank missile, which is also reusable. To shoot down a 25 million Sukhoi 35, a 40,000 backpack antiaircraft Stinger is enough.
All very effective and sustainable over time. After losing the blitz, the blitz which met with little resistance from the Ukrainian side, Russia proceeded to the war of attrition. The fact that they haven’t advanced in the last few days doesn’t mean that the Russians are losing, but that they have adapted to unexpected resistance.
The Kremlin did not order carpet bombing of the whole country, only Kharkiv, Mariupol and parts of Kiev.
It hits civilians from above with no risk, little accuracy, and little effort. Some dumb bombs had been in storage for 20 or 30 years. What matters is depriving you of sleep, racking your nerves, demoting hospitals, roads and services even in front of enemy soldiers. Such atrocities serve two purposes: they lower the morale of those who fight and they drain resources. The fleeing civilians are becoming a weapon against the logistics and support system for the military effort, clogging it with hundreds of thousands, millions of refugees.
This missilegenerated human bomb affects both the Ukrainian resistance and the European alliance network. But even that may not be enough for Putin.
Just five months ago, a few thousand migrants from the Middle East in Belarus threw European solidarity into a tailspin. Today the EU took in three million refugees without complaint. The tsar had probably not even expected this kind of resistance.
March 20, 2022 (Modification March 20, 2022 | 07:46)
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