(CNN) – The images of the wrecked Antonov AN-225 are now an indelible memory for aviation enthusiasts worldwide.
Built in the 1980s to carry the Soviet space shuttle, the aircraft was given a post-Cold War second life as the world’s largest cargo transporter, setting records of all kinds before being demolished at its home base, nearby Hostomel Airfield, in late February , was destroyed Kyiv “The dream will never die” tweeted by the Antonov company, in reference to the nickname of the plane “Mriya”, which means “dream” in Ukrainian. Solidarity poured in from all corners of the world.
But can the AN-225 ever fly again?
Answering this question first requires an assessment of the damage suffered by the aircraft.
CNN’s Vasco Cotovio saw the wreckage up close when he visited Hostomel airfield with fellow CNN journalists and the Ukrainian National Police in early April.
“Hostomel was the scene of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces very early in the war,” he says.
The world’s largest airliner, the AN-225, was famous around the world.
Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images
“Moscow’s forces attempted to seize the airfield in order to use it as a forward operating position to which they could fly additional land units. To do this, they carried out an air raid with attack helicopters.
“They seemed to have had an initial success, but the Ukrainian response was very quick, hitting the airfield quickly and hard – to prevent any kind of landing,” he says.
The condition of the aircraft did not leave any doubts about the possibility of repair.
“The nose of the plane was completely destroyed, apparently the victim of a direct artillery hit,” says Cotovio. “There was also extensive damage to the wings and some engines. The tail section was spared from major impacts and has a few holes caused by either shrapnel or bullets.
“Without the direct hit to the nose, the AN-225 might have been repairable,” he says, adding that the area around the plane was littered with spent ammunition, obliterated Russian tanks and trucks, and wrecked armored vehicles.
A second coming
The AN-225 was developed as part of the Soviet space program to carry the Soviet Burane space shuttle on its back.
Gilles Leimdorfer/AFP/Getty Images
Andrii Sovenko, a Kyiv-based engineer and aviation expert who has worked for the Antonov Company since 1987 and has flown as part of their technical crew on the AN-225, has compiled a detailed list of the damage using a large number of videos and images of the wreck (Antonov employees are not yet allowed to return to Hostomel for security reasons).
He confirms that the center fuselage and nose of the plane – including the cockpit and crew rest areas – are destroyed, but it is the plane’s onboard systems and equipment that suffered the most critical damage.
“Restoring them will be the hardest part,” he says. “That’s because most of the various electrical systems, pumps and filters used on the AN-225 are all from the 1980s.
“They’re just not made anymore, so it’s unlikely they can be restored exactly as they were,” he says.
It’s not all bad news: parts of the wings, including aerodynamic surfaces like flaps and ailerons, appear to have suffered minor damage and they could be salvaged.
Most of the six engines also appear to be intact, and the entire tail of the plane is affected only by shrapnel, leaving it in acceptable condition.
The AN-225 was badly damaged during the battle for Hostomel airfield near Kyiv.
Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
Sovenko, who wrote a book on the history of Antonov Airlines detailing his experience flying the Mriya, agrees that the plane cannot be repaired at Hostomel.
“It’s impossible to talk about repairing or restoring this aircraft – we can only talk about building another Mriya, using individual components that can be salvaged from the wreckage and combining them with those found in the.” 1980s were intended for the construction of a second aircraft.”
It refers to the second AN-225 airframe that Antonov keeps to this day in a large workshop in Kyiv. It was part of an original plan to build two AN-225s that never materialized.
“This is a completely finished fuselage with a new center section already mounted on it, as well as the supporting structure of the wings and tail unit. In other words, almost a complete airframe. As far as I know, it was virtually undamaged during Russian artillery shelling of the facility,” says Sovenko.
A new design
There’s one major problem with the idea of building the idle airframe with recyclable parts from Hostomel: it still won’t make 100% of the necessary components.
“It will be impossible to build exactly the same aircraft with exactly the same design and equipment,” says Sovenko. If this is the case, Antonov faces two hurdles: getting new and old components to work together, and possibly having to undergo recertification of the aircraft to confirm its airworthiness and compliance with applicable regulations.
The company has experience with the first edition, having updated many of the AN-225’s systems over the years, replacing old Soviet technology with modern Ukrainian equivalents, but full certification would take time and increase costs.
Experts say the original plane is unlikely to ever be restored to its former glory.
Genya Savilov/AFPGetty Images
Unfortunately, that seems almost inevitable: “There’s no point in building an airplane today with a 40-year-old design,” adds Sovenko. “It is also quite possible that based on the operating experience of the original it will be deemed appropriate to make additional changes to the aircraft design.”
The AN-225 was never designed to carry commercial cargo and was adapted for this task through extensive work by Antonov in the late 1990s. Despite its enormous capacity, the aircraft remained uncomfortable to operate from the crew’s point of view. It must be lowered onto its nose – a maneuver known as “elephant knees” – to load cargo, which is wheeled on board using special chains and pulleys.
Due to its unique design, only the nose of the aircraft opens and it doesn’t have a rear ramp like its more practical little brother, the AN-124. The cargo floor could also use some reinforcement, and the level of compliance of the aircraft with existing airport infrastructure could be increased, adding to the list of desirable improvements in a hypothetical modern version of the aircraft.
millions or billions?
The AN-225 broke numerous flight records during its lifetime.
Ronny Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images
Building a second Myria won’t be cheap, but it’s hard to determine exactly how much it would cost. Ukrinform, Ukraine’s national news agency, raised eyebrows when it explained that the cost of the operation would be $3 billion. In 2018, Antonov estimated that the second airframe would cost up to $350 million to complete, although that number may now need to be revised.
“Nothing specific is known at the moment,” says Sovenko, “The cost will depend on how badly the preserved parts of the aircraft are damaged and how many modifications and new equipment are required.” A large part of the cost will depend on the amount of as depend on the certification tests deemed necessary. But in any case, we can expect the final figure to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars, not billions.”
Richard Aboulafia, Aerodynamic Advisory Aeronautics Analyst, agrees: “It depends on whether the aircraft is just a prototype or whether it is going to enter commercial service with full certification. Certainly $500 million is even more appropriate with certification exceeding $3 billion.”
The real question, says Aboulafia, is who would pay for it? “There really isn’t a major commercial application for this aircraft, and otherwise where would the money come from?”
It is easy to think that most of the costs would be borne by Antonov, but the company suffered heavy losses from the destruction of several other aircraft and facilities; Although it is still operating at a reduced level, its future is uncertain.
“I’m an optimist. I sincerely and deeply wish that Antonov planes will continue to fly in the sky in the future,” says Sovenko, “but I’m also a realist. And I fully understand that the cost of building the second aircraft Mriya must be correlated with the financial capabilities of Antonov after the war, as well as with the expected income from the operation of this aircraft.”