When the three months since the start of the special operation in Ukraine come to an end, has the capture of the Azovstal steel plant, and with it all of Mariupol, revived the Russian offensive? Not at all, not even a little, on the contrary. The word “swamp” stands out in the international press, that is, swamp, both figuratively and literally, with the hot and humid Ukrainian spring loosening the soil that Russian tanks shelled in February. Tank? Tank? Yes, but the fact is that for the time being, Putin’s crawlers seem to be standing still and lagging behind, and not only because the NATO grenade launchers delivered to the Kiev army detonated a very high number, which the Russian generals do not even suspect now they entrust the pounding of the Ukrainian lines essentially to the field artillery. In this way we also save the lives of the soldiers, because that of the dead is one of the most devastating posts in the Russian budget.
Putin “like Hitler 45”: from briefings to hate for the web, the paranoid days of the tsar
Moscow, Zhukovsky Aerospace Plant on fire: fire covering an area of 30 square kilometers https://t.co/jsyS8QSwwr
– The Messenger (@ilmessaggeroit) May 21, 2022
In short, all the prerequisites for the end of the war are still a long way off, so much so that Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said – as the Wall Street Journal reported – that there were “all the signs of a long phase of the conflict.” ” with the Russians, who refrain from conquering new territories and fortify the conquered.
Here are the 5 scenarios the WSJ experts suggest
Collapse of the Russian Army and Nomenklatura
After the blitzkrieg that predicted the fall of Kiev in a matter of days, the weeks that followed revealed the backwardness of the Russian war machine, which lost at least twenty thousand soldiers, even if there are twice as many estimates, and an impressive battery. by generals and means of all kinds, including ships and planes that seemed unassailable the night before. There are also growing mutinies, especially among conscripts: that is, there were Russian soldiers who refused to obey orders, especially when it came to attacking civilian targets. In fact, according to Eliot Cohen of the International Studies Center in Washington, Putin has already lost. First of all, face it.
collapse of Ukraine
It is true that – proving the effectiveness of the Ukrainian counter-proposal – official figures on Kiev’s military losses are absent, with the Azovstal defeat remaining the only “certified” one on the war map. But in Mariupol it was a militarily foregone conclusion, and it is not even certain that the number of soldiers who surrendered to the Russians is just under a thousand, as Moscow claims. Maybe it’s a lot less. According to Phillipis O’Brien of the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, there are no concrete signs of failure of the Ukrainian army, which is increasingly armed with Western weapons.
The swamp
Without the fall of Kyiv and Zelenskyy, it will be very expensive for Russia to keep “only” the conquered territories in Donbass, where there is no shortage of Russian-speaking population (not always synonymous with Russophiles). Moscow would be forced – if it hasn’t already – to mobilize far more soldiers and resources than the – massive – are currently deployed. A war that could therefore last until the end of the year and continue in 2023 the most dynamic Ukrainians who can strike even across the border with Russia. Raids of little strategic importance, but capable of undermining Moscow’s authority in the long term.
Ukrainian offensive
Aside from the pain of the expected loss of Azovstal, Ukrainian morale remains high, thanks in part to NATO deliveries of modern weapons, among which stand out the British 155mm M777 howitzer (cost 3 million each) and Kyiv received 90) with a range of 24 kilometers. And then drones and anti-tank grenade launchers. An arsenal that allows the Ukrainian Soladti to launch counterattacks and even strike on Russian territory. It’s difficult to reverse the situation in Donbass, let alone Crimea (taken by Putin in 2014), but perhaps at some point Zelensky will be tempted not to stop when the Russian army begins to retreat. If so, should it aim to win back Donbass and Crimea? What is the cost in terms of human lives?
escalation of the conflict
Is a string of Ukrainian victories that cornered Putin in the West? Could the potentially stranded Russian leader go all out by ordering his generals to use tactical or chemical nuclear weapons? Although an escalation based on an apocalyptic intercontinental missile trade is considered unlikely, it is not easy for Russia either to bear the consequences of the use of limited-range nuclear weapons. So far, the nuclear taboo was only broken by the United States in 1945, and even on the domestic front there could be resistance from the Russian hierarchy, especially if Putin’s leadership has not yet been consolidated.
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