Most of Canada likely won't have a white Christmas this year, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada's chief climatologist.
“If there is no snow now, there will be no snow,” said David Phillips. He said there will be no snow in many areas that traditionally celebrate a white Christmas.
The technical definition of a white Christmas is leaving two inches of snow on the ground, Phillips said. This is the Canadian standard. Millions of Canadians will not have one.
In Montreal, the sliding slopes at the foot of Mount Royal and the ice rinks are closed due to heavy rain and mild temperatures.
Calgary's few patches of snow await their fate as forecasts call for temperatures well above freezing and warm Chinook winds.
In Ottawa, where heavy snowfalls are common, the lawns are covered in icy powder that doesn't allow for sledding or snowballing, but at least shines nicely in the sun.
After two consecutive white Christmases, Vancouver will almost certainly end its streak this year.
The Cypress Mountain ski area north of Vancouver shared platform day.
It's the same everywhere
From Prince Rupert, British Columbia, to Corner Brook, Newfoundland and Labrador, and from Inuvik, Northwest Territories, to Iqaluit, Nuavut, snow accumulations were 10 to 15 centimeters lower than average in late November. Some places, such as southeastern British Columbia, will have 50 centimeters less snow than average.
This means that there is almost no snow cover to speak of in southern Canada.
Environment Canada's snow map uses brown dots to indicate snow-free ski areas and is brown from coast to coast. Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, Halifax…all brown dots.
Skiers keep their skis in the closet
Online ski information shows that 41 ski resorts across the country have an average of only a third of their slopes open.
If you want snow, you have three options: the coast of Newfoundland along St. John's, the Saguenay region of Quebec, and a small pocket of the Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta. All are 15 to 20 centimeters taller than average. It's not huge, but enough to build a snowman or roll down a hill.
The snow didn't have a chance to accumulate, Phillips said. It's just too hot and too dry. We set all sorts of records for warm temperatures, and that was the case throughout the summer and certainly into October and November.
Mr Phillips is already concerned about the impact of the dry weather on next year's crops and forests.
Humidity is a big problem on the prairies, he said.
Last year's wildfires started due to winter conditions. This doesn't look good at a time when we should be replenishing soil moisture.
According to Environment Canada's Drought Monitoring Tool, almost the entire country is considered abnormally dry. Some locations in southern Alberta are already at the exemption level, i.e. at the top of the classification system.
Parts of British Columbia continue to experience extreme drought conditions, with the Peace River and Fort Nelson areas classified as Level 5, the highest level of drought activity with almost certain negative impacts, according to the province.
El Niño – a periodic weather system that brings warm weather to much of North America – is partly responsible for this unusual weather. This year, the system started early and strong, Phillips said. In addition, the Arctic air descending toward southern latitudes was not as cold as usual.
All of this is happening in a changing climate that has made the summer of 2023 the hottest in the planet's history.
El Niño is different now, Phillips said. This is happening against the backdrop of a warming world.