When Saul “Canelo” Alvarez last fought in his native Mexico, he was a rising 21-year-old star making the third defense in his first tenure as world champion. Alvarez returns to Mexico on Saturday as the undisputed super middleweight champion to defend his titles against mandatory contender John Ryder.
It has been 11 years since Alvarez last fought in Mexico, beating Kermit Cintron in five rounds to retain his WBC junior middleweight title. In the years since that fight, Alvarez has grown into one of boxing’s elite pound-for-pound champions and biggest draws. He has won junior middleweight, middleweight, super middleweight and light heavyweight titles while pursuing new challenges and crafting a resume that will ensure him a future place in the Hall of Fame.
Two fights ago, Alvarez lost for the second time in his career and returned to light heavyweight for the second time to face undefeated WBA champion Dmitry Bivol. Bivol was the better man that night in May 2022, surpassing Alvarez with a combination of technique and size. Alvarez bounced back by defeating his biggest rival, Gennady Golovkin, in their rubber match in September.
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Ryder isn’t the most exciting opponent for Alvarez, but it’s part of a champion’s job to have responsibilities, and an undisputed champion comes with many of those responsibilities.
In November, Ryder defeated Zach Parker in five rounds to win the WBO interim title to cement himself as the next man for Alvarez.
The fight with Alvarez will be Ryder’s second shot at a world title. In November 2019, Ryder fought Callum Smith for the WBA super middleweight title. Smith made the decision after 12 rounds, although much of the media felt Ryder had done enough to deserve raising his hand.
Ryder has now racked up four straight wins to win the biggest fight of his career. He’ll step into the ring as a massive underdog, but boxing isn’t short of historical surprises and Alvarez has looked vulnerable in his recent bouts against Bivol and Golovkin.
The trilogy fight with Golovkin was a clear win for Alvarez, although the judges scored it narrowly, but Alvarez was very different from his usual self and approached the fight cautiously, although many felt Golovkin was strong entering the fight faded.
CBS Sports will also have live coverage of the fight with round scoring and blow-by-blow updates to keep you connected throughout the night.
Before we move on to a prediction and expert picks for the main event, let’s take a closer look at the rest of the fight map with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Alvarez vs. Ryder fight card, odds
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (c)-2000 | John Ryder+1000 | Undisputed super middleweight title |
Julio Cesar Martinez (c) -1400 | Ronald Batista +800 | WBC flyweight title |
Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela -150 | Steve Funke +125 | Super light |
Oleksandr Gvozdyk | Ricard’s Bolotniks | Light heavyweight |
forecast
It’s fun to think about the possibility of big upsets in boxing, but Ryder’s win is particularly unlikely, even against a potentially faded version of Alvarez. This is a homecoming for Alvarez and Ryder doesn’t pose the same threat as Golovkin, even a 40-year-old Golovkin. That means Alvarez doesn’t have to hold back and play it safe like he did in his last fight.
Ryder did a good job against Smith, pushing the then-champion around a bit even as a smaller man. Alvarez will be the slightly smaller man against Ryder, but he’s very strong and can use his strength as well as almost anyone else in the game.
Ryder won’t be able to force Alvarez around, nor will he be the more dangerous puncher, nor will he be the better technical boxer. If there’s a path to Ryder’s victory that isn’t by landing a perfect shot or by completely breaking down Alvarez, I just can’t see it. Expect Alvarez to roll in front of an enthusiastic Mexican crowd. Pick: Alvarez via KO5
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