Cargo attack Are Houthi rebels threatening global maritime trade

Cargo attack: Are Houthi rebels threatening global maritime trade?

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The takeover of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader on Sunday is seen by the Houthis as a sign of an escalation of their attacks on Israel. But this attack on one of the most important areas of maritime trade could also have consequences for the global economy, believe several experts interviewed by France 24.

This is a new front in the war between Israel and Hamas, which began on Sunday, November 19, with the Houthis’ hijacking of the ship Galaxy Leader. By violently hijacking the cargo ship, the group of pro-Iranian rebels operating in Yemen claimed to have the interests of the Jewish state in its sights and gave this conflict a maritime dimension that it had not had before.

But not just maritime for the region. Unsurprisingly, Israel called on the Houthis to release this ship and its crew as soon as possible. But the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan also joined in. All of these powers are concerned at different levels about the fate of this cargo ship that was transporting cars from Turkey to India.

Very strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Street

This incident, which occurred near the very strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait south of the Red Sea, can potentially have “global implications,” emphasizes Jan Stockbruegger, a maritime security specialist at the University of Copenhagen. “Nearly 57 supertankers leave the Gulf states every day and pass through this strait to reach Asia. It is therefore one of the biggest bottlenecks in maritime energy trade,” emphasizes Antonio Gonçalves Alexandre, Portuguese international relations specialist who has been working on maritime security in the Red Sea since 2018.

Cargo attack Are Houthi rebels threatening global maritime trade

Certainly the attack against the Galaxy Leader falls within the very specific framework of the war between Israel and Hamas. A priori no impact on world trade. But the choice of modus operandi, ship and embarkation point tells a different story.

The attack on a ship in these waters “is not in itself fundamentally new,” acknowledges Danilo delle Fave, specialist in international security issues at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona, who has studied the methods of asymmetrical warfare by groups supported by Iran. The Houthis “have already seized ships [jamais israéliens] “In the past, attacks have been carried out off the Yemeni coast and Iran has been accused of using drones to attack Israeli boats,” says Danilo delle Fave.

But the Houthis have decided to step it up a gear this time. The spectacular video of the Galaxy Leaders boarding from a helicopter, posted by Yemeni militants on social networks on Monday, November 20, “signals an intensification of attacks against Israeli interests,” assures Danilo delle Fave.

Read alsoIsrael-Hamas war: With the attacks by the Houthis in Yemen, the specter of an “escalation logic”

It is no longer just a matter of sending rockets towards Eilat (a city in southern Israel), which Israeli anti-aircraft defenses have so far intercepted without much difficulty. “This time the Houthis are showing that they are ready to go into physical combat,” adds the ITSS expert from Verona.

The nature of the operation – which mixes elements of maritime boarding with other elements specific to airborne attacks – was not chosen at random. “This is the first time that the Houthis have proven that they are capable of such complex actions,” emphasizes Jan Stockbruegger. “This is their way of saying that they are not simple pirates, but have skills similar to those of an army,” adds Danilo delle Fave.

Millefeuille of nationalities

If the message is intended primarily for Israel, there is no doubt that it was also accepted in five out of five cases by all the countries whose ships pass through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, its extension. “Most companies operating cargo ships in this region of the world planned to defend themselves against possible pirate attacks with small, fast boats, but did not think that they would also have to protect themselves against threats from the air,” notes Jan Stockbrügger.

Especially since the attack on the Galaxy Leader also shows that the Houthis have a fairly broad acceptance of what constitutes an Israeli ship. In fact, Tel Aviv claimed that there was nothing Israeli in this shipment… which is also not entirely accurate.

In reality, the Galaxy Leader sails under the Bahamas flag but is owned by Ray Car Carriers, a British company that owns a fleet of car carriers. This shipment to India was managed by the Japanese shipping giant Nippon Yusen (part of the Mitsubishi Group). It was he who hired the very international crew of the Galaxy Leader, consisting of Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Romanians and even Filipinos. But no Israelis in the group.

In fact, the only connection to the Jewish state is the parent company of Ray Car Carriers, namely Ray Shipping, which is owned by Abraham Ungar, an Israeli citizen. This multitude of nationalities coexisting within the same transport company “is typical of the complexity of sea freight,” emphasizes Jan Stockbruegger.

In his opinion, the Houthis’ attack on the Galaxy leader will “worry shipping companies around the world, who will go through all documents on their cargo ships to ensure there are no potential links to Israel.” Between the crew, the cargo, the insurer or even the true owner of the ship, there are numerous opportunities to attract the ire of the Houthi rebels, who are clearly quick to jump at the slightest connection to Israel.

World trade in danger?

Therefore, “the confiscation of the Galaxy Leader can have significant consequences for all global trade, as it de facto increases the risk for anyone who wants to pass a ship through the Suez Canal. A risk that can increase prices for everyone,” explains Basil Germond, a maritime security specialist at Lancaster University.

In fact, insurers will not stand idly by as the Houthis pose a new threat to maritime trade. “They can take this threat into account by determining the insurance premiums they set for freight companies that have to cross this strait,” explains Basil Germond. An increase in premiums, “which will then have an impact on consumer prices worldwide,” summarizes Jan Stockbruegger.

It remains to be seen how nervous the hijacking of a single ship can make insurers and others involved in maritime trade. For Jan Stockbruegger, the Houthi attack “creates an element of uncertainty about the risks faced by ships transiting this region. This is what insurers hate.”

Danilo delle Fave is more optimistic and believes that freight companies and insurers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the hope of learning more about the Houthis’ intentions. Certainly their statements are rather warmongering. They asserted that this was “the beginning of their naval war against Israel.”

But we must not forget that Iran, the main supporter of the Houthis, also has a say in history. “Tehran does not necessarily have an interest in causing too much disruption to maritime trade in the Suez Canal, as some of the oil and gas that flows through the canal is destined for China, which is Iran’s ally,” concludes Danilo delle Fave. Iran must continue to control this new theater of war and the Houthi attack does not lead to a dangerous chain reaction.