As free agents resume, one important question remains unchanged from the market’s initial opening four months ago.
Aside from a couple of noteworthy developments – we know the Texas Rangers are no longer involved – Correa can use many of the options that existed for him last fall.
Perhaps most intriguingly, the Chicago Cubs are poised to play a major role in wooing Correa as the baseball industry comes back to life.
The Cubs were among the teams that had the heaviest dialogue with Camp Correa hours before the lockout began in early December, and there is every reason to believe that those conversations will resume.
While the Cubs weren’t a popular choice to get a superstar shortstop last fall, there is a logical fit between the parties.
The Cubs have payroll flexibility to add a sizable multi-year contract. Jason Hayward’s contract expires after the 2023 season, and newly signed starter Markus Stroman is the team’s only player to have a contract after his 23rd year. The Cubs’ ability to add a superstar is further enhanced by the fact that Chris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo were traded last summer rather than renewed.
Stroman, Kyle Hendrix and Wade Miley rely on strong infield defense to a greater extent than many current starting pitchers. Correa, the current American League Platinum Glove winner, could have as much of an impact in preventing a Cubs run as he does in their roster. Nico Horner, a top inside candidate for the Cubs’ top shortstop in 2022, started just 12 games in that position last season and is arguably best suited for a multi-position role.
Even after finishing in fourth place, the Cubs don’t seem to be starting a rebuild like the one they started under Theo Epstein ten years ago. If anything, they expect to fight for a playoff spot for most of the next 10 seasons – a time horizon equal to the length of Correa’s hypothetical contract.
In terms of personal appeal, Correa is taking a close look at the game’s history and will take the opportunity to play at Wrigley Field, the site where he had his best one-on-one practice before the 2012 MLB draft.
“I thought, wow, I would love to play here every single day in the big leagues,” Correa told Gordon Wittenmayer of NBC Sports Chicago last year, reflecting on that 12th-year practice.
Of course, the Cubs are not alone in their pursuit of Correa. The Astros, whom Correa brought to the World Series last year, cannot be discounted and will likely remain part of the negotiations until the very end.
Correa is seeking a bigger guarantee than Corey Seeger’s $325 million 10-year deal with the Texas Rangers. Both shortstops are 27 years old and Correa is having a healthier and statistically better season.
Another key reference is an offer Correa turned down from the Tigers late last year. As first reported by ESPN’s Buster Olney, Detroit offered Correa a 10-year, $275 million contract. Had Correa agreed to the deal, it would have been one of the five largest free agent contracts in MLB history.
One source said the Tigers included at least three opt-out clauses in their 10-year offer; half of the contract was covered by a clause that gave Correa a $10 million bonus each time he finished in the top five in MVP voting.
Correa turned down the Tigers’ offer, in part because he and his WME representatives were confident he would get a bigger contract than Seager. Correa opted to sign after Seeger agreed to his contract days after Correa turned down the Tigers’ offer.
Correa, who played in Houston for Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, was Detroit’s first choice among free agents. After Correa turned down their offer, the Tigers turned around and reached an agreement with Baez on a six-year, $140 million contract.
While many in the industry believe that Correa will have the biggest guarantee of any remaining free agent, his market could be impacted by the appointment of first baseman Freddie Freeman. The Yankees are the main contenders for Freeman – in the event that he does not return to Atlanta. The Yankees also showed interest in Correa; it is unlikely that they will both sign.
The Braves have priced in the markets for numerous top free agents but are unlikely to sign Correa and replace Dansby Swanson after winning the World Series. The Braves are known to have had detailed conversations with Justin Verlander as a free agent before he decided to re-sign with the Astros.