Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections will take place no later than mid-June, but possibly earlier. Last but not least, economic difficulties with high inflation, which dropped to around 64% in December, and the devaluation of the Turkish currency, the lira, meant that the ruling alliance, the People’s Alliance, formed by the AKP and the ultra-nationalist MHP, to decline.
Aiming at voters, Erdogan responded with financial gifts: a 30% public sector wage increase, multiple increases in the minimum wage, and the abolition of the minimum retirement age. The middle class will find it easier to buy a home with low-interest loans. At the same time, Erdogan is putting pressure on the central bank not to raise interest rates to the point that is really necessary to fight massive inflation from an economic point of view.
APA/AFP/Adem Altan Turkey is struggling with high inflation of over 60 percent
“Retreat from human rights and the rule of law”
Erdogan is less tolerant of potential opponents and critics. The US-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) has criticized the expansion of censorship powers, false criminal prosecutions and prison sentences. Thousands of political opponents of the government are in prison. “Erdogan’s government has accelerated its retreat from human rights and the rule of law by introducing new online censorship and disinformation laws to silence the media and crack down on peaceful dissent,” said Hugh Williamson, HRW director for Europe and Central Asia.
It wasn’t until the fall that the government tightened the media law. False reporting can be punished with up to three years in prison, but what that includes is not spelled out in detail. The Turkish journalists’ union spoke of the destruction of “the last vestige of freedom of expression”. Restrictions are feared, especially on the Internet. Newspapers and television stations are already largely pro-government.
sword of Damocles political prohibition
The opposition is also feeling the strong headwind. It remains unclear which opposition candidates will step into the ring against Erdogan. Promising candidates are already being harassed. Istanbul’s current mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has repeatedly been called into the six-party alliance with the largest opposition party, the CHP. In the 2019 local elections, he had already beaten an AKP candidate – also with the help of Kurdish votes – and handed the ruling party a sensitive defeat.
IMAGO/ZUMA Wire Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu and potential Erdogan rivals could face a political ban
However, a constant sword of Damocles hangs over Imamoglu, to be deposed and political ban imposed. Late last year, a court handed down a two-year prison sentence and banned him from holding elected office over allegations of insulting officials in Istanbul’s 2019 local elections. it is pending. A few days ago, it was also announced that Imamoglu could face a trial for alleged fraud. Alternatively, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu could run as a candidate for this opposition alliance.
HDP prevented from funding the party
The pro-Kurdish HDP finds itself cornered as an entire party. The second largest opposition party is in its own electoral alliance with four other parties. The HDP could be the kingmaker for the next government. Already in 2019, in Istanbul, for example, she gave up her own candidate and advised Imamoglu to vote. For the next election, however, the party wants to nominate its own candidate, if it is still possible to run.
A few days ago, the public prosecutor asked the Turkish Constitutional Court to ban the party for “terrorism”. The left-wing party is accused of having close ties to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). HDP rejects this. At least two-thirds of the 15 members of the Constitutional Court would have to vote in favor of the ban. The HDP expects a decision in the coming months before the elections.
The constitutional court has already ruled that the HDP is excluded from state party funding for the time being. This court ruling shows that Erdogan’s government is abusing the courts to “discriminate, eliminate and punish” political opposition. Dozens of HDP politicians have been in prison for years.
politically influenced judiciary
The Turkish judiciary is considered partisan. The EU Commission has also criticized the fact that the judiciary is under government control in many areas. Erdogan denies this. There are numerous examples of a politically active judiciary – including outside the parties. For example, human rights activist Osman Kavala was sentenced to life in prison on charges of trying to overthrow the Turkish government during the 2013 Gezi protests and on allegations of espionage. The verdict was only confirmed recently. International protests against Kavala’s detention were ignored in Turkey.
APA/AFP/Centro Cultural Anadolu There were violent protests against the detention of human rights activist Kavala
Last week, the president of the Turkish Medical Association, Sebnem Korur, was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison. She had been in custody for several months after being accused of “terrorist propaganda”. She called for an investigation into the Turkish army’s alleged use of chemical weapons against Kurdish fighters. However, she was released after the verdict and placed under judicial supervision, as prison terms of less than four years are rarely carried out in Turkey. The maximum sentence in her case would be seven and a half years in prison. The verdict is therefore considered a setback for the Public Ministry.
Air strikes in retaliation
In terms of foreign policy, Erdogan wants to show strength. In the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, for example, he positioned Turkey as a mediator. He continues to block Sweden’s entry into NATO. The blockade is discussed with alleged Swedish support for the banned PKK.
The Turkish government also blamed Kurdish rebels for a bomb attack in Istanbul in November that killed six people. Erdogan justified the following airstrikes against Kurdish-populated areas in northern Iraq and Syria as a retaliatory strike. But there are doubts about the official account of who was really behind the attack. Any responsibility for this has been rejected by the Kurdish side. The air strikes drew international criticism. NGOs reported that civilian targets were also hit in the attacks, and attacks on oil and gas facilities led to fuel shortages.
APA/AFP/Gihad Darwish Turkey attacked oil and gas facilities in northeast Syria
Reaching out to Syria’s rulers
In Syria, Erdogan is likely to make an about-face. Until now, Turkey has sided with the Syrian opposition, which mainly controls northwest Syria. Diplomatic relations with the ruler of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, were severed. But now there is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. That would – also internationally – shuffle the decks in the Syrian conflict.
The background for this possible change of course could be of a domestic nature and the change could have occurred in view of the elections. Turkey has hosted around 3.7 million Syrians. The mood in the country towards refugees has noticeably worsened as they also pose additional challenges for the Turkish economy. Erdogan is looking for ways for Syrian refugees to leave Turkey.
In addition, he wants to expel the US-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG militia from the Syrian-Turkish border, Middle East expert Gudrun Harrer analyzed for “Standard”. Syrian refugees could be moved to a buffer zone behind the border, according to Ankara’s plan. According to the analysis, however, a consensus with Russia is also necessary for this. It is also unclear whether Assad is part of this movement.