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Typhoon Koinu, a storm equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane, was approaching southern Taiwan after strengthening faster than expected on Wednesday.
The storm, with sustained winds of 130 miles per hour, is expected to bring torrential rain that could trigger flooding and landslides in addition to dangerous sea conditions on Thursday.
A remarkably intense one Wind gust of 213 mph was discovered on Wednesday evening on Orchid Island, a volcanic island east of southern Taiwan, on the summit of a 1,000 foot hill. If confirmed, this would be one of the strongest wind gusts ever recorded on Earth.
As the storm crosses southern Taiwan, its peak winds are expected to drop to 120 mph, but it will remain more than strong enough to topple trees and damage homes and businesses.
After passing Taiwan, Koinu could ultimately make its way toward southeast China and Hong Kong this weekend into early next week. Although it is expected to weaken significantly by then, its slow movement could allow it to dump flooding rains.
About 100 flights to and from Taiwan were canceled in advance of Wednesday’s storm, as were a similar number of local ferries, according to the Associated Press. Schools were also closed in coastal regions and offshore islands as conditions worsened throughout the day.
Portal reported that while gusty showers were expected in the capital Taipei, offices and schools there remained open.
Where Koinu is and where it is going
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Koinu is in its final hours over the Philippine Sea, poised to make landfall near the southern tip of Taiwan around 8 a.m. local time.
Much of the Hengchun Peninsula in southern Taiwan and Taitung and Haulien counties in the north along the island’s eastern side are under red alert for torrential rain and other typhoon impacts.
On Wednesday night, outside gangs began wreaking havoc on the region. The core of the heavy rain and damaging winds is expected to move through between the dawn and afternoon hours on Thursday.
Heavy rain is likely in Taiwan until at least late Friday, especially in the mountains of the southeast, where moist onshore winds and currents toward eastern mountain slopes will increase rainfall.
Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 centimeters are likely to be common in the south of the island and in the mountainous regions in the east. Significantly higher local amounts are also possible.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, waves were about 40 feet high near the center of the storm Wednesday. Forecast models predicted it could reach up to 30 feet off the southern tip of Taiwan as the storm passed, with high seas causing coastal erosion and zones of significant storm surge – the wind-driven rise of seawater over normally dry land.
As it enters the Taiwan Strait, Koinu continues to weaken as it moves westward toward Guangdong and Fujian provinces in southeastern China. Despite the weakening, abundant moisture associated with the slow-moving low pressure system could flood coastal parts of the region by next weekend. If the storm approaches the coast, double-digit rainfall amounts are possible.
Some computer models predict its remnants will drift south over the next week, back over warmer waters and attempt to reorganize slightly.
Taiwan’s typhoon problems
Southern Taiwan is in an active region for tropical cyclones, including many very powerful typhoons – no different from hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Areas within 100 miles of the tip of the island average about one typhoon per year, although the storms sometimes come in waves.
Typhoon Haikui hit Taiwan just a few weeks ago about 75 miles north of where Koinu is expected to cross the coast. It was the first typhoon to hit Taiwan in four years and caused significant flooding in Hong Kong and southeast China in the first week of September.
The most recent landfall of a storm comparable to Koinu in the far south of Taiwan was Typhoon Nepartak in 2016. It made landfall about 50 miles north of the southern tip of the island and moved east-west as a Category 3 wind with winds of 125 miles per hour. Typhoon Meranti passed about 30 miles south of Taiwan that same year as a Category 5 with winds of 180 miles per hour.
In 2021, Typhoon Chanthu approached the region as a Category 5 and weakened to Strength 4 and then to Strength 3 while hovering offshore about 40 miles east.