Not since the days of Queen Elizabeth I, Sir Francis Drake and the Spanish Armada in the 16th century has there been so much at stake between England and Spain. The UEFA Champions League (watch all the action on CBS and Paramount+) has shrunk to four clubs, two from the Premier League and two from La Liga. Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Villarreal will battle for control of the seas and see who can successfully circumnavigate the Champions League.
Have I squeezed the last drop out of this historical reference? Probably not, but I’d best get on with the rest of this column. The Champions League semi-finals begin this week and while Manchester City and Liverpool are the big favorites to progress and give us an all-English final, Real Madrid have been written off a number of times in this tournament and it’s still here. Then Villarreal plays the role of Cinderella.
What will happen in the first legs? I can’t guarantee anything, but I have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Of course, that might not be a good thing considering how I’ve fared with my Champions League picks this season. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Date: Tuesday April 26 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | See: CBS/Paramount+
Featured Game | Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Like last round against Chelsea I want to take the helm but I fear what Carlo Ancelloti did against PSG in the round of 16. He sent Real Madrid there and made them play like Sean Dyche’s Burnley team. Madrid played in an almost impenetrable low block while Karim Benzema was stranded alone in midfield. It was a plan that probably brought tears of joy to Atlético Madrid’s Diego Simeone. It didn’t work out for Real Madrid that day but although they didn’t win the fight, they won the war and thanks to Karim Benzema they also won it against Chelsea.
I suspect we’ll see that low block again on Tuesday. It makes sense against a team like Manchester City looking to dominate possession, but while Madrid only held PSG to a late goal last time out, PSG posted an expected goals total (xG) of 2.6 that night. Man City are a more efficient attacking machine than a PSG side who rely more on individual brilliance than a hive mind. In other words, a pragmatic approach against City might not work nearly as well as Ancelloti is hoping, so my bet is City hitting the back of the net at least twice. Tip: Manchester City over 1.5 goals (-185)
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Liverpool vs Villarreal
Date: Wednesday April 27 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | See: CBS/Paramount+
Featured Game | Liverpool vs Villarreal
Villarreal is a great story and a great example of what a club can achieve when the whole organization is united and has a vision. The fact that they’ve come this far is incredible. Villarreal’s problem is that Liverpool is a similar club but with more money and much better players. So there’s a good chance that this Cinderella run will come to an end within the next week, and probably in a devastating way.
If we look at Villarreal’s defensive performances lately, there isn’t much reason to hope that they can stop Liverpool. Their 2-0 win over Valencia last week was the first time in seven games they kept an opponent under 1.0 xG, and they’ve only managed to do that once in ten Champions League games (the 1-1 draw against Juventus in the Round of 16). ). Maybe Villarreal can pull off the same kind of voodoo as they did against Bayern Munich, but I doubt it. The good news is that Villarreal are strong enough in attack that I think they can score at least one goal more often. After all, Liverpool have conceded four goals in two games against Benfica and have conceded at least one goal in seven of their ten Champions League games this season. Pick: Both teams to score (+105)
Europa League game
Date: Thursday April 28 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | See: Paramount+
I don’t often bet on the Europa League because it can be a random number generator for outcomes. You can never be sure which teams in the competition are really interested in being there and trying to win it. However, once you get to the semifinals, you can be pretty sure that the four remaining teams want to win. Unfortunately, I don’t see much value in this week’s games alone. I see the value of a combination of probable winners.
It’s pretty easy. It’s an honor for Rangers to come this far in the competition but they’re not in the same league as Leipzig and I can’t see them going to Germany and walking away with a result. Then there’s West Ham, who can’t reach the Champions League places in England, so their only route to the Champions League is by winning the Europa League (and look how well that route worked for Villarreal!) . They meet Frankfurt, who are ninth in Germany with a goal difference of -2. Although they have played well in the Europa League, they are unlikely to pose much of a threat to the Hammers in London. Tip: West Ham and RB Leipzig win (+156)
recording | units | |
play league | 54-49 | +8.14 |
Champions League | 9-15 | -6.93 |
| In total | 63-64 | +1.21 |