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If the Chiefs beat the Raiders this afternoon, they’ll be No. 1 in the AFC playoffs regardless of what happens tomorrow. But the No. 1 seed doesn’t necessarily mean home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
Because of the rule change the NFL voted on yesterday, the Chiefs could still play an AFC championship game on a neutral field.
What the Chiefs win if they win today is the No. 1 seed, a playoff bye and a home game in the divisional round of the playoffs against the lowest remaining seed in the AFC.
But it would still be possible for the Chiefs to face the Bills on a neutral field in the AFC championship game: If the Chiefs win today and the Bills beat the Patriots tomorrow, then the Bills have the No. 2 seed in the AFC and would have home games in both the wild card round and the divisional round. If the Bills won those two playoff games and the Chiefs won their division round games, it would be Chiefs-Bills on a neutral field in the AFC championship game.
If the Chiefs win today, the Bills are the only AFC team that could play Kansas City on a neutral field. Any other team would have to go to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game.
If the Chiefs lose today, it opens up the possibility of the Bills gaining the No. 1 seed and home field advantage in the AFC: If the Chiefs lose, the Bills need only beat the Patriots tomorrow to make the first-round playoff Bye and home field advantage during the AFC playoffs, including the AFC championship game, if the Bills win in the divisional round.
The Bengals are mathematically eliminated from the No. 1 and a bye but should still be hoping for a Chiefs loss today. If the Chiefs lose today, the Bengals beat the Ravens on Sunday, and the Bengals end up playing the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, that game would be played on a neutral field. Otherwise the game would be in Kansas City.