In the first game of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, the AFC No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs meet the No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Having pulled off a hilarious comeback win over the Kansas City AFC West brothers, the Jags certainly have some excitement on their minds as they travel to the Midwest. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are hoping for a trip to their fifth straight AFC championship game. They’ve made it at least this far in every year of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era, and they’re unlikely to want that streak to end now.
Which of these teams will advance to the next round? We’re glad you asked. Before we break down the matchup, here’s how to watch the match.
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Date: Saturday 21 January | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ABC | Electricity: fuboTV (try for free)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
opportunities: Chiefs -8.5, O/U 53 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Jaguars have the ball
Mimicking the opening of A Tale of Two Cities when introducing a point is extremely weird, but damn it if last week wasn’t the worst half followed by the best half for Trevor Lawrence. Before halftime against the Los Angeles Chargers, Lawrence was just 10 of 24 for 77 yards, one touchdown and an incredible FOUR interceptions. After the break, he went 18 of 23 for 211 yards and three touchdowns with zero picks.
Obviously, there’s no way the earlier kind of halftime can happen against Kansas City if the Jaguars want to stay in the game. The Chiefs aren’t the Chargers, and they won’t let an opponent survive that kind of performance. And the Jags could really need Lawrence playing at the level he achieved in the second half throughout the game just to keep up with Kansas City’s explosive offense. That means he must also surpass the performance he put on when these teams met in Week 10, when he completed 29 of 40 passes, but only for 259 yards (6.5 per attempt) and two touchdowns. It was a solid game, but not nearly enough to keep up with what Patrick Mahomes was doing on the other side of the ball.
If Lawrence is to get the kind of results the Jaguars need from him, it’ll likely come from midfield throws. Kansas City ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on those throws, while Lawrence had 35 of 48 for 392 yards, five touchdowns and a pick on passes between the hashes, according to Tru Media. He ranked sixth in the league in expected points added (EPA) per dropback in those games.
Throwing over the middle likely means working the matchups with slotman Christian Kirk (76% of the snaps in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus) vs. L’Jarius Sneed and Evan Engram against the Kansas City linebackers and safeties. On the fringes, Zay Jones and Marvin Jones are covered by rookies Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and they’re a little easier to pull on than Sneed, but Lawrence was at his best when he ripped it down the middle — especially when he was able to do it push the ball down.
It takes time to throw to get the ball down, and Jacksonville’s offensive line will have their hands full with Kansas City’s front — especially Chris Jones. Lawrence’s superpower is his ability to avoid sacks, but that’s more difficult when the pressure is centered and right in your crotch. That’s where Jones comes in, and if the Jags can’t stop him from destroying the bag, it could be a long day for their offense. Lawrence may also have to work on his checkdowns more often than he’d like (Travis Etienne has rarely been attacked in recent weeks) if Jones is dominating the game.
The Jaguars might be tempted to play conservative in a matchup where they’re underdogs, but they really need to do the opposite. Kansas City will score; Putting the game on Lawrence’s right shoulder instead of relying on Etienne and the offensive line to control the ball all game is Jacksonville’s best shot at creating an upset.
When the Chiefs have the ball
When those two teams were playing a few weeks ago, Patrick Mahomes torched the Jaguars secondary to the tune of 26-of-35 for 331 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. He added seven rushing attempts for 39 yards while taking zero sacks. He did so despite losing JuJu Smith-Schuster to concussion and Andrew Wylie to an elbow injury in the first half.
It makes sense that he was able to fire up the Jaguars given the areas of relative weakness for Jacksonville’s defense.
For example, the Jags ranked 32nd in the Football Outsiders DVOA this season against throws at tight ends, and Mahomes completed 6 of 7 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce and 3 of 3 passes for 26 yards and a goal for Noah Gray and Jody Fortson. No team in the league saw their opponents throw a greater proportion of their passing attempts at running backs, according to Tru Media, and Mahomes connected with Jerick McKinnon on 6 of 8 passes for 56 yards. Only two teams allowed players lined up in the slot more receiving yards than the Jaguars, and Mahomes went 10-of-13 for 153 yards and two points for Slot Men during the game, despite Smith-Schuster leaving early.
Well, here we are a few months later, and Kelce is still Kelce, McKinnon is even more solid as the Kansas City offense leader, Smith-Schuster is back in the herd, and the Jaguars still have the same relative weaknesses as a defense pass. In other words, this is a nice matchup for Mahomes. The places he likes to go with the ball are the same places the Jaguars usually leave open, and we’ve already seen him tear them apart with those very throws.
Betting against a replay means betting that Jacksonville’s defense will suddenly perform atypically against the best quarterback in the league, or that the named quarterback will perform atypically against a defense that isn’t well equipped to deal with it with him or his primary weapons.
Add to that the fact that the Jaguars also ranked 29th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA this season and that the Chiefs likely have an advantage in the trenches and the likelihood of the Chiefs’ offense failing this game , seems to be quite small. That’s especially true when we’ve seen McKinnon as a runner in both last postseason (34 carries for 150 yards) and the games where he actually received significant carries this year (he went 8-53, 8-51 and 10 -52 in the only three games he had 8 carries or more).
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Prognosis: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20