- The China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement is a major diplomatic breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, alleged attacks and espionage between the two countries.
- It represents Beijing’s first foray into mediation in the Middle East, an area largely occupied by Washington in recent decades.
- The deal is “a much-needed pressure valve amid heightened regional tensions” — but significant changes are far from guaranteed, analysts told CNBC.
A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper whose front page reports on the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, March 11, 2023.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — When arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they would resume diplomatic relations, much of the world was stunned — not only at the breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, alleged attacks and espionage between the two countries, but also because of who brokered the deal: China.
Taking on a specific role that the US could not have filled was Beijing’s first foray into mediation in the Middle East, an area largely occupied by Washington in recent decades.
As tensions simmer between the world’s two largest economies and US politicians sound the alarm over competition and security concerns with China, what does Beijing’s rise in the region mean for the Middle East – and for US interests?
“Many breathe a sigh of relief [with] today’s official deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” wrote Bader al-Saif, assistant professor of history at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University, on Twitter after the news was announced. “All three parties to the deal can claim victory, but the Saudis are arguably the biggest winners,” he claimed.
From the Saudi perspective, normalization with Iran — a country long viewed by the Saudi monarchy as one of its top security threats — removes obstacles in its path to reform and economic transformation, according to Joseph Westphal, a former US ambassador to the kingdom.
“I think the leadership there believes this is a very important moment for Saudi Arabia as it becomes a real world leader on many issues,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday. “A constant battle with Iran is delaying this and hampering the progress they have made.”
“Obviously, the United States could not have facilitated this deal because we have no relationship with Iran,” the ambassador added. “I think China was a good partner for that. I think they are the right people,” he said, noting that China invests heavily in Saudi Arabia and is its main trading partner.
“So I think that’s a very good thing all round.”
Hopes of a de-escalation in areas like Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has been waging a brutal war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015, are now more realistic than before, analysts say. Risks to shipping and oil supplies in the region could be reduced, and trade and investment between countries could contribute to growth.
At the very least, improved communications will reduce the risk of a confrontation, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, who described the deal as “a much-needed pressure valve amid heightened regional tensions.”
Still, it is a mistake to assume that everything is resolved.
“Due to the ongoing shadow war between Iran and Israel — and sporadic Iran-backed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the region — the risk of an escalation from miscalculations is still uncomfortably high,” he said.
In recent years, the region has seen numerous attacks, particularly on Saudi and Emirati ships and energy infrastructure, for which Riyadh and Washington blamed Iran. Tehran denies the allegations.
“Riyadh and Tehran will remain opponents with competing visions for the region,” emphasized Soltvedt. “But improved communication channels have the potential to reduce the risk of a direct military confrontation between the two states.”
Iran is also now enriching uranium to its highest level ever and is believed to be just months away from being able to build nuclear bombs. A rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran can mean little if the latter’s nuclear program is not addressed.
The White House’s apparent reluctance to praise China was hard to miss.
“We support all efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think it’s in our best interests to do so,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the news on Friday, adding that the Biden administration has made similar efforts in this direction.
But when asked about Beijing’s role, Kirby replied, “This isn’t about China, and I’m not going to characterize whatever China’s role is here.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (R) at Yamamah Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 8, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The news signaled China’s growing influence in the Arab region. And not only economically, as it already exports an immense amount of goods to the Middle East and is the largest importer of Saudi oil – but also politically. Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders have made a concerted effort to diversify their foreign relations and move away from over-reliance on the US as several American administrations treat the Middle East as a lower priority.
“I think it shows that US influence and credibility in this region has declined and that a new type of international regional alignment is taking place that has given and strengthened both Russia and China a new influence and status,” Aaron David said Miller, a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former State Department Middle East policy adviser, told NBC News.
He called the fact that China brokered the deal “staggering”.
US Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. (C, rear), commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Lt. Gen. Fahd bin Turki bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (front), commander of the Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen According to reports, during his visit to a military base in al-Kharj in central Saudi Arabia on July 18, 2019, Iranian weapons seized by Saudi forces from Yemeni Houthi rebels were shown.
Fayez Nureldine | AFP | Getty Images
Nevertheless, there seems to be a consensus that US influence in terms of military power and security alliances in the region is not in jeopardy.
“No Chinese mediation – or any diplomatic involvement – will challenge US primacy in the region. All states, including Iran, know this,” said Al-Saif of Khalifa University. The US-Saudi Arabia security partnership spans nearly three-quarters of a century, and Saudi Arabia’s military arsenal is predominantly supplied and maintained by US and American military personnel.
Neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.
Bader Al-Saif
Assistant Professor of History, Khalifa University
In any case, China’s gain need not mean a loss for the US, many argue.
“This should not be a zero-sum game for the US. It can serve US interests: the nuclear deal with Iran, Yemen and Lebanon for starters can benefit from the deal,” Al-Saif said.
“A quick change of these files should follow [because] The agreement may not last long,” he added.
It remains to be seen whether the deal between the two Middle East powers – and the mutual goodwill it has expressed – will endure.
Many regional observers are skeptical.
“Iran’s decision to engage here should not be misconstrued as a de-escalation,” Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC. “Tehran benefits from deeper Chinese involvement in Persian Gulf trade, as well as increased Saudi backing of the pro-American order in the region.”
“For the Islamic Republic, this deal has not come at any political cost, while the mere looks and politics of it, not to mention the substance, are in Iran’s favor,” he said, emphasizing his doubts that Iran will stop engaging in regional conflicts and other interfering countries via proxies and militant activities.
Ben Taleblu also argued that Iran’s enmity with Israel played a role in his calculations, as “Tehran is trying to show that it has beaten Jerusalem after Riyadh and is trying to push back and break out of the diplomatic isolation it has as a result of the Abraham.” -Agreement felt”. when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel.
For al-Saif there is “certain hope that the agreement will live on” and lead to the prosperity that the people of both countries deserve. “But,” he said, “neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.”