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China is considering sending lethal military aid in the form of artillery shells to Russia as President Vladimir Putin’s army is rapidly depleting its stockpiles of ammunition a year after his invasion of Ukraine, US officials said, a prospect that has alarmed those in the Biden administration who believe Beijing has the ability to change the course of the war.
There is no evidence arms transfers took place, these officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the US government’s assessment. However, should China move forward, it would be the first time Beijing has provided deadly aid in the conflict, despite repeated warnings from the United States not to provide such assistance. It would also violate the spirit of a peace plan proposed by the Chinese leadership on Friday.
The aid under consideration consists of 122mm and 152mm ammunition, which Russia is only running out of as it follows a war fought largely with artillery, officials said.
The revelation, first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday, follows a public warning from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said last weekend that Beijing was seriously considering providing lethal aid. It also comes as Western nations are increasingly concerned that Chinese involvement in the conflict could be a major setback for Ukraine and its supporters.
“China has the ability to change the game,” said a senior US government official.
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In response to Blinken’s warning, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said this week that China “will never accept the US pointing fingers at Sino-Russian relations or even pressuring us.” Urging the United States to “seriously think about its own actions,” Wang said, “It is the United States, not China, that is endlessly supplying weapons to the battlefield.”
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Right now, both Russia and Ukraine are scouring the earth for more ammunition. Moscow is appealing to North Korea and Iran to stock up on 122mm and 152mm, both of which are also used by China. Western allies are trying to procure more 152mm ammunition for Ukraine’s Soviet-era howitzers and are attempting to produce more of the standard 155mm NATO artillery they have supplied to Ukraine since the war began.
The desperate hunt is fueled by massive shelling from Ukrainian and Russian forces – a point stressed this month by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“The war in Ukraine is devouring enormous amounts of ammunition and depleting Allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said at a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels. “The current rate of ammunition expenditure of Ukraine is several times higher than our current production rate.”
Russia is running out of ammunition, US officials said, but China, with its vaunted production capacity of long-range artillery, rocket launchers, surface-to-surface missiles and drones, could make up for the shortage.
That was a focus during last week’s meeting between Blinken and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Blinken warned Wang that there would be “impact if China provided material support or assistance to Russia in circumventing systemic sanctions,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.
Beijing has so far not provided direct military support to Russia, but US officials have accused Chinese state-owned companies of providing non-lethal aid in recent weeks.
“We have indications that China may be considering providing lethal capabilities to Russia,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday, without specifying the specific nature. “We didn’t see them make that decision. We haven’t seen them move in that direction. We have made clear, both privately and publicly, our concerns about this possible outcome. China should not want to specifically interfere in this way.”
Asked about a report in German magazine Der Spiegel that China was negotiating to send unmanned attack drones to Russia, Kirby said: “I have nothing for you on that.”
On Friday, Beijing called for a comprehensive ceasefire in conjunction with a 12-point peace plan it had presented. Blinken and Stoltenberg both reacted skeptically to the proposal – saying no solution should allow Russia to “rest” and “arm up”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted more positively, saying he saw it as a productive gesture rather than a concrete plan.
“It is an important signal that they are preparing to take part in this issue,” he said during a press conference in Kiev.
However, he emphasized that Ukraine’s main concern is that Beijing does not arm Moscow.
“I very much want to believe that China will not supply arms to Russia, and for me this is very important,” he said. “That’s point number one.”
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To date, the Biden administration has pledged more than $30 billion in military aid to Ukraine and announced its latest package on Friday. US officials did not quantify the amount of aid China is believed to be considering, other than saying it was “significant,” one official said.
According to experts, one of the main obstacles for Russia is the limited supply of artillery ammunition. The Russian army is “culturally an artillery army,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at Virginia-based research group CNA. “Over the past year, the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine used their advantage in artillery to make up for the shortage of manpower. But they used more than half a million shells a month.”
As a result, he said, the Russian army is likely to ration its stockpile of artillery shells now or soon. “And it’s clear that they’ve already run out of several different caliber types, like 122mm, over the last year.” The lack of ammunition, Kofman observed, “is one of the essential factors in the war and was from the beginning.”
Even as China was warned, the government pressed new charges against Iran for providing lethal unmanned drones to Russia to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure.
“Today we have additional information that Iranian support for Russia’s war is increasing,” Kirby told reporters on Friday. In November he said: “Iran has shipped artillery and tank shells to Russia for use in Ukraine.”
In exchange, he said, Russia was offering “unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics and air defenses. We believe Russia could supply Iran with warplanes.” Iran, he said, is demanding “billions of dollars” worth of military equipment from Russia, including purchases of attack helicopters and radars.
In response to questions, he declined to give details, particularly on possible deliveries of Russian fighter jets. “I can’t go any further… that’s really as far as I’m allowed to go here. We will be monitoring this very closely to see what, if anything, actually happens.”
Iran has denied sending drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani told Russian media outlet Sputnik on Friday that Moscow and Iran have a long history of military cooperation that predated the Ukraine conflict “and are not against a third country.”
The new US allegations came amid a further deterioration in doomed efforts to revive Iran’s nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. Bloomberg reported last week that Iran has been enriching uranium to purity levels of up to 84 percent, close to the level needed to make bombs. Iran, which has denied any interest in making bombs, refuted the report, saying any enrichment to that level is a tiny and temporary side effect of its ongoing enrichment to 60 percent purity.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for Iran’s civilian nuclear program, told Iran PressTV, “If we really want to enrich 20 percent more, we will announce it very simply.” The International Atomic Energy Agency, which oversees Iran’s nuclear activities, said it was aware “aware” of the reports and would discuss them with Tehran “if necessary”.
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