financial times
Will the stalemate in the Ukraine war be broken in Bakhmut or Beijing? At the moment, all eyes are on the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive that is expected to begin soon. But there are also significant developments on the diplomatic front.
Last week, Xi Jinping called Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On a recent visit to Kyiv, I was surprised by the great anticipation both in the President’s office and in the Foreign Ministry for this meeting with the Chinese leader. Now the Xi Zelensky phone call finally took place, which the Ukrainian said was “long and significant”. Beijing later announced it would appoint an envoy to work towards a peace deal.
There are obvious reasons to be suspicious of China’s diplomatic efforts. Xi has repeatedly stressed his appreciation for his “dear friend” Vladimir Putin. China’s peace plan for Ukraine, released earlier this year, was vague and did not include a withdrawal of Russian troops. There are clear propaganda benefits for Beijing in claiming an interest in “peace” even though it doesn’t do much about it. Even if China is serious, bridging the gap between Kiev and Moscow will be extremely difficult.
However, it is wrong to dismiss the notion that China could play a major role in ending this brutal conflict. For different reasons, Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Europe and China itself have potential interests in Beijing’s involvement.
Ukrainians understand that Xi holds a unique hold over Putin should he choose to use it. In the face of Western sanctions, Russia is dependent on China to keep its economy afloat.
The Biden administration assesses that China is unlikely to put significant pressure on Russia, and some senior officials still fear that Beijing will go in the opposite direction and supply Russia with weapons. But the Ukrainians are more hopeful. They thought they saw real signs of tensions between Putin and Xi during the Chinese President’s recent visit to Moscow and even claimed to me that Xi cut short his visit.
Why would Xi lose his temper on Putin? There is no doubt that the Russian and Chinese leaders are united in their hostility to US power. A quick Russian victory in Ukraine could have been useful for China. But a protracted war is becoming a strategic burden for Beijing. Rather than weakening the Washingtonled alliance system, the war brought the democracies of the US, Europe and Asia closer together.
China has spent decades expanding its influence in Europe. But its selfproclaimed “unlimited” partnership with Russia has convinced many Europeans that Beijing now poses a threat, too. Americans and Europeans use the same language when it comes to “derisking” their relationship with China by reducing economic dependencies. This is important for Beijing because the European Union is China’s largest export market. Military relations between Japan, Europe and the USA are also strengthening.
The best way for Beijing to rebuild its reputation in Europe would be to play a visible and positive role in ending the war. Such a move would also have global implications, supporting Xi’s preferred narrative that American power is on the wane and China is a force for peace.
There are certainly signs that Beijing is starting to enjoy the pacification deal. China is enjoying the positive publicity it has received for its role in normalizing IranSaudi Arabia relations. Recently, the Chinese chaired a conference in Samarkand on peace in Afghanistan. Beijing even spoke of mediating in the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians. (When I mentioned this in Washington, the news was greeted with a smile and “Good luck with that.”)
Given the growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing, one might expect the US to take a negative view of China’s involvement in Ukraine. But after some internal debates, the Biden administration decided not to dismiss the Chinese peace initiative but to try to shape it.
Americans understand the dangers of appearing “antipeace.” But not only that. The US is also increasingly interested in finding a way to end the Ukraine war. Washington knows that the longer the conflict drags on, the harder it will be to maintain a Western consensus on pouring billions in military and economic aid to Ukraine.
The prevailing opinion in Washington and in many European capitals is that the Ukrainians need to get as much support as possible before launching their counteroffensive. The Ukrainian goal is to achieve such a decisive victory that the Putin era will end. But it’s a very difficult goal. A more likely outcome is that Ukraine strengthens its position on the battlefield ahead of peace talks.
There has been much debate as to whether the Western alliance would ever press Ukraine into negotiations. Less discussed but probably more important is who could force Russia to make significant concessions including withdrawing from occupied territories and abandoning efforts to destroy Ukraine.
The only plausible answer to this question is China. Only Xi can offer Putin a warm handshake in public and an arm twist in private. At some point, the Chinese leader may decide it’s in his country’s best interest to do just that.
Translated by Luiz Roberto M. Gonçalves