China has already decided to provide Russia with economic and financial support during its war with Ukraine and is considering sending military supplies such as armed drones, US officials fear.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the US case against a Russian invasion in an “intense” seven-hour meeting in Rome with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, noting that Moscow was feigning an interest in diplomacy in preparation for the invasion. and also that the Russian army was clearly showing signs of weakness.
The US delegation in Rome did not expect Chinese diplomats to negotiate, seeing them as a message to Beijing.
“It was a tense seven-hour session, reflecting the gravity of the moment, as well as our commitment to maintaining open lines of communication,” a senior administration official said. “This meeting was not about discussing specific issues or results, but about a frank and direct exchange of views.”
Asked if it was successful, the official replied: “I guess it depends on how you define success, but we think it’s important to keep lines of communication open between the United States and China, especially in areas where we don’t have disagreements.”
However, the Americans left the meeting in Rome pessimistic that the Chinese government would change its mind about supporting Moscow.
“The key here is to first get China to recalculate and reassess its position. We see no signs of such a reassessment,” said another U.S. official familiar with the discussions. “They have already decided that they will provide economic and financial support, and today they emphasized this. The question is whether they will go further.”
At the top of the list of Russian military purchases from China are combat drones and various types of ammunition, but any military supplies will not be simple.
“Both sides understand that they do not have common systems, and this creates problems,” the official said. CNN reported that the Russian military is also asking for rations, highlighting serious logistical challenges amid a longer and more violent conflict than anticipated.
Russia is in dire need of economic and financial assistance in the face of devastating sanctions imposed by the US and its allies following the February 24 invasion. The country is in danger of defaulting on its debt payments, with two interest payments due on Wednesday, although it will have a 30-day grace period.
Moscow can’t access almost all of its $640 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but it still holds some of those reserves in yuan, so Beijing can step in and provide immediate assistance.
Washington is pessimistic about keeping China from tying its fate to Russia, largely because it believes the partnership is top-down.
“This is really a project of Xi Jinping. He fully and fundamentally supports this closer partnership with Russia,” the US official said. The bottom ranks are more skeptical, but Xi and Putin share a common view of the US as oppressive and oppressive and are determined to end the period of US global dominance.
If China supports Russia in its standoff with the West, the Biden administration will shift its focus to persuading allies, especially in Europe, to reconsider their relationship with Beijing. Sullivan is due to arrive in Paris on Tuesday for talks with the French government.
“The United States believes that the key here is a thorough process of dialogue and discussion with Europe about what China is revealing about its global policies and priorities,” a US official said. “Our goal is basically to be discreet with China, letting the Europeans know [what we are doing] all the time, but if it becomes clear that [China] moving in the other direction, so be it.”