SINGAPORE — Chinese leaders are considering steps to reopen after nearly three years of tight pandemic restrictions, but are proceeding slowly and have not set a timetable, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Chinese officials are concerned about the cost of their zero-tolerance approach to quelling Covid outbreaks, which has led to the lockdown of cities and entire provinces, suffocating business activity and confining hundreds of millions of people to their homes for weeks and sometimes months. But they are weighing these against the potential cost of reopening to public health and support for the Communist Party.
As a result, they are treading cautiously despite the deepening impact of Covid policies, people said, pointing to a long road ahead for anything approaching pre-pandemic activity levels, with the timeframe stretching to sometime towards the end of next year.
Uncertainty over China’s Covid-19 strategy has led to a guessing game in financial markets, with some looking for signs that China would start easing its Covid policies. The Chinese Communist Party Congress last month, when Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for a third term, was once seen as a potential turning point in his fight against Covid, but little has changed in the country’s approach to containing Covid.
China’s leaders are concerned that a surge in Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths could undermine confidence in the ruling Communist Party’s legitimacy.
Photo: TINGSHU WANG/Portal
On Saturday, officials at China’s National Health Commission reiterated their commitment to a resolute “zero Covid” strategy, which they described as essential to “protect people’s lives.”
Some progress is being made in easing border controls for foreign arrivals. Beijing is likely to further reduce the number of hotel quarantine days required for inbound travelers to a total of seven days by early next year, people involved in discussions say, from a current guideline of seven days at a quarantine facility, followed by three days of home surveillance quarantine.
Domestically, officials have informed retailers that the frequency of PCR testing – a staple of China’s Covid regime – could be reduced as early as this month, partly due to the high cost of mass testing, according to people familiar with the matter. People said the government plans to scale back the thousands of PCR testing stations set up across the country as part of the campaign to institutionalize testing, citing the cost.
Still, the leadership has found it difficult to enact broader easing measures this year, the people said. Many measures remain in place. The country will continue to act aggressively to stamp out even small outbreaks through mass testing and lockdowns. People will still have to use health codes on their phones to gain access to public spaces, and travelers entering the country will face quarantines and rounds of Covid testing.
A combination of new virus variants, an under-resourced public health system and the approaching winter has left Beijing concerned that a potential surge in Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths could undermine confidence in the ruling Communist Party’s legitimacy.
Chinese health officials have been closely monitoring death rates and public reactions in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea, which share cultural roots with China and where governments until recently imposed similar measures, the people said.
“The reopening in China is being carried out in an orderly manner. It will start gradually depending on geographical areas and sectors and will differ from what we have seen in the West,” said one of those involved in the discussions. For example, the government might decide to impose less stringent measures in cities that are major economic hubs.
Workers at the world’s largest assembly site for Apple’s iPhones walked out as Foxconn struggled to contain a Covid-19 outbreak. The chaos underscores the tension between Beijing’s tight pandemic controls and the urge to keep production on track. Photo: Hangpai Xinyang/Associated Press
While some have questioned the accuracy of China’s official figures, health experts say the country’s Covid death rate has been much lower than much of the West because of its strict measures. Officially, China has recorded around 5,000 Covid-19 deaths, a fraction of the more than 1 million deaths in the US. China’s Communist Party has hailed its lower official death toll as proof of the superiority of its model of government.
In recent months, Chinese officials have kept close contact with the World Health Organization, focusing on the alert level the Geneva-based body has set for the Covid-19 pandemic, according to people familiar with the matter.
The WHO Emergency Committee meets every three months to assess whether the pandemic still constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern”.
Postponing the WHO statement would give China more leeway for policy changes. According to people familiar with the matter, Beijing could begin to push for more aggressive easing measures and adjust the domestic political narrative on Covid, effectively declaring victory in containing the virus.
The WHO first declared a public health emergency of international concern in January 2020 and decided at its last meeting in October that it was too early to lift the status. The next meeting is scheduled for January.
A WHO official said the agency does not comment on private discussions with member states.
One plan being considered in Beijing, the people said, would be to treat Covid-19 as a “class B” infectious disease following a change in WHO designation. China is treating it as a Class A disease, requiring stricter public health measures.
Even with such a move, it could take China much longer — maybe a year, people said — to return to pre-pandemic activity levels. The government wants to continue to monitor new variants closely to make sure they don’t become more dangerous, they said.
Any further relaxation of the measures would depend on an increase in the vaccination rate for older people. Beijing plans to launch a vaccination campaign for vulnerable groups later this year, aiming for 95% of people aged 60 and over to receive two doses, some of the people said. The latest government data from early November shows that 86% of the elderly population had received two doses of the vaccine, compared to 90% of the wider population.
Another condition for a full reopening of its economy is improving access to oral antivirals to treat Covid, the people said. Earlier this year, China’s drug agency granted approval for Azvudine, an HIV drug developed by Chinese drugmaker Henan Genuine Biotech Co., to treat Covid. Drug agencies have also approved Pfizer Inc.’s drug Paxlovid.
Any further relaxation of the measures would depend on an increase in the vaccination rate for older people.
Photo: CHINA DAILY/VIA Portal
The National Health Commission responded to a request for comment by citing remarks made during its press briefing on Saturday.
In recent months there have been some signs of a shift in China’s attitude towards Covid. In September, Mr. Xi visited Central Asia, making his first trip outside the country since Covid began spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in early 2020. The Chinese leader has also started receiving foreign leaders in Beijing and is expected to attend a summit of leaders of the Group of 20 nations next week in Indonesia.
Still, Beijing has been careful to rein in expectations of rapid change, including at Saturday’s press conference. In a series of pointed comments last month, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece People’s Daily called for confidence and patience with Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy. Health officials have urged local governments to build quarantine hospitals to prepare for reinfection. Shanghai, for example, is building a quarantine facility that can house more than 3,000 people and will cost just under $200 million, state media reported.
“All signs point to the start of preparations for an eventual reopening, particularly given the mounting cost to the economy of the ‘dynamic zero Covid’ policy,” economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note Monday. “Actual reopening is months away as vaccination rates among the elderly remain low and mortality rates among the unvaccinated appear high, according to official Hong Kong data.”
—Drew Hinshaw contributed to this article.
Write to Keith Zhai at [email protected]
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