Since last Monday, part of Shanghai, the financial capital of China, has been in a new lockdown due to a significant increase in positive coronavirus cases. The new closure will allow health officials to carry out sweep tests until April 1, when the lockdown is lifted and applied to another part of the city, to test again on all residents by April 5.
The decision to impose shortterm closures while tests are being conducted is one of the first signs of an overhaul of the socalled “zeroCOVID” strategy that China has been employing since the pandemic began and with mixed success.
Shanghai has been grappling with a new wave of COVID19 for about a month: over 4,400 new positive cases were detected on Tuesday, the highest number ever recorded in the metropolitan area. The number of infections may seem reduced by the standards of many Western countries, which have recorded tens of thousands of cases every day in recent months, but not for the Chinese government, which has tried to practically avoid the spread of the virus during these two years Coronavirus at all costs, the immediate isolation of those infected and the imposition of strict quarantines and extended lockdowns of entire cities.
This “zeroCOVID strategy had brought good results, at least according to official information, in the initial phase of the pandemic.
In two years, fewer than 100 cases per million inhabitants were detected across the country, compared with almost 240,000 per million in Italy. The number of deaths from COVID19 in China was about 3 per million, compared to 2,630 per million in Italy.
However, isolating and locking down entire neighborhoods, if not entire cities, has come at a heavy cost to China. In alternating phases, entire industrial and financial districts were unable to work for months, causing severe economic damage to the country and the rest of the world, which had to face reduced availability of goods produced by one of the world’s largest exporters. The Chinese government wants to avoid having to resort to long closures again, especially under different conditions than in 2020 and in the first half of 2021.
The experience of many Western countries with the Omicron variant has shown how difficult it is to contain a much more contagious version of the coronavirus compared to the previous ones. Almost all European countries and the United States are struggling with this, both due to the speed of the spread of the variant and the need not to reapply bans and other severe restrictions. Vaccine protection and omicron’s less severe symptoms of COVID19 (particularly among the vaccinated) have led to waves with very high numbers of cases, but proportionately far less severe cases than the previous ones.
With varying nuances, western countries have experienced a form of coexistence with the virus as defined by many experts, while maintaining the necessary precautions to avoid worsening it again. The Chinese government considers coexistence with the corona virus to be unfeasible in the current situation and is therefore looking for a way to modify the “zero COVID” strategy without abandoning it completely.
Shanghai during lockdown March 29, 2022 (AP Photo / Chen Si)
The changes seen in the areas with the greatest spread of the coronavirus in China in recent weeks have mainly affected the treatment of positive cases. Those who are infected and have mild symptoms are no longer allowed to be hospitalized but must continue to isolate themselves in special centers. Duration of isolation has been revised and shortened in many cases, and new testing strategies are being tried, such as the twophase one in Shanghai, to avoid city closures.
After a long time when the government only mandated the use of molecular swabs, it’s now easier to buy doityourself kits to do an antigen test at home. If the test is positive, however, a molecular test must be carried out.
Other “zeroCOVID”related rules remain in effect, showing the caution with which Chinese authorities are reviewing pandemic containment policies.
Travel to and from China remains severely restricted and those arriving in the country must undergo a twoweek quarantine in hotels and other facilities designated by health authorities. Random or carpet tests are still carried out in some neighborhoods, depending on the case, and if they are positive, it is mandatory to reach one of the isolation structures. Shop and school closures and travel restrictions remain in place.
Child is tested for coronavirus in Shanghai, China (AP Photo / Andy Wong)
Chinese President Xi Jinping confirmed on March 18 that he would not abandon the ‘zeroCOVID’ strategy, but added that China will ‘strive to achieve maximum prevention and control at the lowest cost and reduce the impact of the ‘ Epidemic on social and social impact ‘to minimize economic development’. Since the pandemic began in 2020, Xi had never mentioned the economic cost of strategies to contain the spread of the coronavirus, another signal of the decision to review some of the policy at a sensitive moment for the Chinese and the world economy, analysts said.
Xi is confident that he can only achieve this by making tests even faster when needed, conducting them in smaller areas and holding the governors of individual Chinese provinces more accountable. There may also be instances of partial lockdowns, which will allow some factories and businesses to continue operating provided more frequent testing is done to identify and isolate positive cases.
The number of new infections is still relatively high compared to the two previous years. On March 19, China reported two new deaths, the first in almost a year.
In the coming weeks, Chinese health authorities will be able to assess the impact of the “zeroCOVID” changes and make further changes, based in particular on how the situation develops in the event of further proliferation of the Omicron variant.