China’s top zero-Covid enforcer says the fight against the virus has entered a “new phase” as state media have downplayed its risks and bolstered expectations that Beijing would revoke its anti-pandemic approach just days after a wave eased by riots.
Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said on Wednesday that the Omicron variant is becoming “less pathogenic” and pointed to higher vaccination rates despite China recording tens of thousands of new cases since its largest outbreak.
Sun didn’t mention the term “dynamic zero Covid,” a policy that has been attempting to eliminate all infections through mass testing, quarantines and lockdowns for nearly three years.
While the government has made no explicit change in policy, the Sun’s comments – which were followed by softer language about the virus in state media on Thursday – build on a decision to ease lockdown restrictions in parts of the southern city of Guangzhou despite high case numbers .
The détente in Guangzhou contrasts sharply with the example of Shanghai this spring, when Sun visited the city while the city was under a strict two-month lockdown that underscored the government’s commitment to eradicating the virus.
Analysts cited their comments and Guangzhou’s decision as evidence of a reopening, which has been the subject of market speculation for months in the absence of a clear government plan.
Ting Lu, chief economist for China at Nomura, who has been closely following the citywide lockdowns, said they could “point to the beginning of the end of zero-Covid”. Analysts at Australia’s bank ANZ suggested China is switching to “living with Covid” instead, citing the introduction of rules allowing people to quarantine at home.
State media changed tone this week to emphasize that Omicron is less deadly than previous tribes. On Thursday, the state-run Global Times cited domestic research showing that mortality associated with the Omicron variant had declined.
“We shouldn’t be too scared of Omicron,” reads an editorial in the paper. “For the general population, with the vaccine protection, Covid-19 has become much less harmful to the human body.”
Hu Xijin, the newspaper’s former editor, wrote on Twitter that China is “accelerating to lift large-scale lockdowns,” citing the examples of Guangzhou and Beijing.
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In Beijing, which saw record infections on Thursday, anecdotal reports surfaced of officials allowing home isolation instead of central quarantine for close contacts of people with Covid-19. There have also been reports of home quarantine for people with the virus in Guangzhou.
The zero Covid policy requires not only positive cases, but also their close contacts central isolation. The latter surged to more than 1m last month amid the record breakout, stretching the capacity to implement the rules.
Popular resistance to restrictions has gathered momentum in recent days after a wave of public vigils and demonstrations following the death of 10 people in a fire in the western city of Ürümqi, which was attributed to a lockdown. The authorities have denied the allegation.
Despite more confident predictions of a reopening, China’s approach is still marred by confusion and disagreements across regions and cities.
Nomura’s Lu suggested that “the road to ‘living with Covid’ could still be slow, costly and bumpy,” noting the arrival of winter.
In Shanghai, authorities last week tightened measures by requiring residents to provide PCR test results to enter some public places every two days instead of three. Visitors to the city will also be banned from public areas for five days.