young people in china
The job market and universities can suffer significantly from a lack of young talent.
(Photo: dpa)
Beijing China’s population has shrunk for the first time in six decades. At the end of December, the world’s most populous country had 1.412 billion inhabitants, around 850,000 less than the previous year, according to the Beijing statistics office. According to statisticians, a population decline was last recorded between 1960 and 1961.
Chinese authorities and the United Nations (UN) originally expected this point to be reached within ten years. The UN assumes that India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world this year.
The official figure of 9.56 million births in 2022 means that China’s economy will grow more slowly in the future, warns Yi Fuxian, an expert on population development in China and a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. China is in danger of falling, which is dangerous both for the country itself and for the world.
Experts have long warned that China will age before it gets rich. But the demographic and economic outlook is “much bleaker than expected,” Yi emphasizes. The low birth rate of 1.2 children per woman and the one-child policy that has existed for decades mean that fewer and fewer workers have to care for more and more elderly people. According to the statistics office, people of working age between 16 and 59 accounted for 62% of the registered population last year.
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The last baby boomers born in the late 1970s, before the one-child policy took effect, are still part of the workforce. But once they leave, there is a risk of a severe labor shortage that could slow the world’s second-largest economy. The growth engine of the global economy in recent years may start to fail.
Relaxing the one-child policy does not lead to higher birth rates
For years, authorities have tried to encourage families to have more children. In 2016, the one-child policy that had been in place for nearly two and a half decades was relaxed and two children per family were allowed. But this did not lead to the desired increase in the number of births. As of mid-2021, three children per couple are allowed. But even in combination with cash bonuses, the desired effect is not achieved.
Expert Yi predicts that the sharp decline in the birth rate will mean that many universities will have to close due to a lack of young people, thus weakening China’s innovative power. The manufacturing sector will suffer from labor shortages and will inevitably shrink. This, in turn, can lead to higher prices and, in the long run, also increase inflation in the US and the EU.
Yi has been warning since 2018 that China’s population is shrinking, putting the actual population at less than 1.28 billion. In 2013 he wrote the book Big Country. Empty Nest,” in which he criticizes China’s birth control.
The fact that the current drop is apparently so dramatic that the official forecast also had to be corrected shows the extent of the demographic crisis which is “beyond all imagination”, according to the expert. It also means that past economic, social, foreign and defense policies are based on “incorrect demographics” that need to be adjusted. Growing prosperity is the most important legitimization for the Communist Party, which has been in power since 1949.
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