In September 2019, Cuba’s newly appointed “constitutional president” appeared at the round table to explain to citizens that the country was facing a special – day-long – situation regarding fuel supplies.
In the words of Miguel Díaz-Canel, the “economic situation” was not due to the shortage of products, but only to the oil problem, which in turn was attributed to the “tightening of the blockade” and the sanctions imposed by the government of the United States against Cuba.
Four years later, on September 27, 2023, the Minister of Energy and Mines said on national television that the country was experiencing a new “difficult” situation on the fuel issue, especially diesel, and that recovery could take a while.”
How much? He didn’t make it clear, but said he hoped all race tracks in the country could experience power outages every three or four days in the following months. He also stressed that he hopes that at some point we can return to a situation where the housing sector does not have to be affected.
The first was an idea confirmed by the Minister of Economy, Alejandro Gil Fernández, in the same television room. The economic chief, who was also in office in September 2019 when Díaz-Canel declared the start of the “conjunction,” said that this was “not the case,” contrary to what some “hostile” media said [habría] a breakdown,” just a complication.
The situation, the special time, the crisis or any other euphemism was never a matter of days in Cuba. It has been the country’s norm for decades.
To analyze the approach, it is not necessary to go too far into the past, it is enough to remember what has happened in the country since the term of the current government, when Cuba – as many Cubans satirically refer to it – became “Coyuntu Country.”
2019
A month after the Díaz-Canel government announced the start of the current situation in October 2019, it announced new measures to address the situation. Among them, the sale of imported products in stores where payment had to be made in freely convertible currency (MLC) stood out; a measure that was theoretically limited to “high-end” products. According to the Cuban authorities at the time, only 70 stores in the country offered this service.
In addition, government officials assured that the goal was not to dollarize the economy, that the number of stores accepting MLC would not increase significantly, and that essential products would continue to be available in stores operating in the local currency. The reality was different: business in MLC expanded to such an extent that it almost wiped out local currency business.
What started as selling “high-end” products turned into offering basic needs and eventually shortages. This came after the Minister of Economy, who remains in office three years later, said that the income from the stores would be used to replenish them and invest in the national industry.
2020
In April 2020, seven months after the situation began – a temporary affair that Díaz-Canel announced “without fear” – power outages continued to be a part of Cuban life. So irresolvable that the hashtag #ReportoApagonenCuba was created trend in the social network X.
Given the situation and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Díaz-Canel government could not afford to lose its main source of foreign exchange, tourism. At that time, the President “gifted” to Cubans that press conference in which the General Director of Marketing of the Ministry of Tourism assured that Cuba was open to tourists who wanted to arrive, since the country had a strong health system with trained staff.
However, just a few months after these statements, in July 2020, Díaz-Canel announced that the Politburo had drawn up the “National Economic and Social Development Plan” based on the “Economic-Social Strategy to Boost the Economy and Address Global Challenges.” have crisis due to COVID-19.
The bombastically named strategy did not stop the blackouts from continuing, and months after it was announced, the number of people affected by the coronavirus and the crisis it caused began to grow alarming. In September 2020, there were power outages even in the capital of the country, which had tried to isolate itself from the effects of the scourge. According to the newspaper , the power outages at the time were the result of excessive consumption that the country could not afford.
In September 2020 – when the official press acknowledged the country’s worsening energy situation – the situation turned one year old.
2021
January 1, 2021 marked the beginning of day zero. The day the Cuban government decided to implement the order task. The measure eliminated the use of the CUC and began an inexorable path toward inflation.
Already in the first months of implementation it was clear that ten years of theoretical research and planning had not been able to prevent one of the biggest economic catastrophes in Cuba in recent years.
As a result of the Ordering Task, the country experienced a daily devaluation of the Cuban peso and social phenomena emerged, the extent of which is not yet fully understood due to the lack of official data.
In May 2021, power outages – officially classified as a one-off situation in September 2019 – continued to be one of the main reasons for unrest among the population. Some independent media reported increasing pressure on the Cuban regime.
The pressure found expression in protest. People couldn’t take it anymore. On July 11th and 12th, 2021 (11J) they took to the streets. The demonstration, which began in San Antonio de los Baños, sparked a social outburst in the rest of the country. The main reason was a prolonged power outage. The ongoing situation triggered the outbreak.
Four days after the largest protests the Communist Party has faced in more than 60 years, the government decided to implement another package of economic measures to “revitalize and revitalize” the country’s struggling economy. The appearance of long-sought-after economic actors, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), was suddenly permitted.
The MSMEs continued despite the Cuban government and the plan it gave them. Today, with the government incapacitated and insolvent, they are the main suppliers of vital products.
Likewise, its growth and the influence of politically connected actors have led to the formation of online markets that would eventually compete with and supply the stores in MLC in many ways (which would serve to guarantee the range in local currency and refinance the industry) . ).
But neither the repression that accompanied September 11th nor the new measures that followed ended the situation. In September 2021, power outages due to generation deficits were announced. In December of the same year, foreign media highlighted that at the end of September the Cuban government estimated that power outages would be reduced to less than three hours per day per user.
The situation thus celebrated two glorious years.
2022
There was no significant improvement in the situation in the first half of 2022. In June of the same year, Díaz-Canel appeared on television together with one of the historical figures, Ramiro Valdés, to once again explain how the situation could be resolved.
At that moment, Ramiro Díaz-Canel ordered him to be silenced in front of the Cuban television cameras. Díaz-Canel, together with the then Minister of Energy and Mines and the director of the Electricity Union, presented diagrams to explain how they would now get out of the mess.
“Turkish nonsense” came into play, which was supposed to solve the generation problem, and it was also mentioned – contrary to what was originally said – that the money coming from the shops in freely convertible currency was not for supplies, but for their repairs be used. Power plants older than 40 years (which produced electricity intermittently due to lack of scheduled maintenance).
During this appearance, Díaz-Canel also said that a foreign loan that Cuba received years ago for the construction of two thermoelectric power plants was in the study phase.
He was referring to Russian financing in 2016 aimed at building two new thermoelectric power plants in Cuba, which have not yet progressed beyond establishment.
In June 2022, Cuban leaders again asked for trust, but the situation and power outages continued. Of course people got tired. So much so that this summer it became common to see people protesting in the streets, demanding that they turn on the power and chanting “freedom.”
Popular discontent reached such levels that in the Pastelillo neighborhood of Nuevitas, Camagüey, people took to the streets for several days and were violently repressed by the special troops of the Ministry of the Interior (Minint).
The Cuban government appears unable to provide electricity, but is an expert at repression. A year after the protests in Pastelillo and in the midst of the same energy crisis, prosecutors are bringing charges against 14 of the hundreds of Nuevitas protesters and are seeking prison sentences of between 4 and 15 years.
The summer of 2022 was intense and hectic. In an attempt to reverse the situation, Díaz-Canel offered repression, which also caused heads to roll. In October 2022, the Minister of Energy and Mines and the Director of the Electrical Union were fired. For the successor, the government turned to two well-known personalities: Vicente de la O Levy and Alfredo López Valdés.
Some enthusiasts again stated that everything is now resolved. They even highlighted that the new energy minister was the director of the Electricity Union during the energy revolution promoted and designed by the late Commander-in-Chief, saying this was sufficient reason to trust him.
As part of efforts to address the situation, Díaz-Canel undertook a trip in November 2022 with the aim of re-establishing important connections. He traveled to Algeria, Türkiye, Russia and China.
Upon returning from his trip, Díaz-Canel explained that his trip had two main objectives from an energy perspective: ensuring a stable supply of fuel, promoting a series of projects that would improve the situation of power plants in Cuba, and renewable technologies for the Develop future.
2023
The Díaz-Canel government began 2023 after the tour and with the recycled idea that Cuba is not alone. In fact, Economy Minister Alejandro Gil Fernández declared that it would be a better year.
However, 2023 has proven to be anything but a better year for Cuba. Inflation has not stopped and power outages continue to occur. Faced with the wave of social protests in the summers of 2021 and 2022, the Cuban government is making every effort to maintain adequate levels of electricity production in the months of July and August 2023.
According to Energy Minister Vicente La O at the round table on September 27, 2023, a record electricity generation in the country was reached in July, with a daily average of 61 gigawatts per hour. This corresponds to an increase of almost 10 gigawatts/h compared to the 51 gigawatts/h that were generated on a daily average in the same month last year.
This, according to the energy chief, resulted in 98% fewer power outages in July 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. In addition, De la O assured that 46.9 gigawatts/hour per day were generated in August 2022, while in August 2023 They managed to increase generation to an average of 59 gigawatts/hour per day, making the impact even smaller than in July.
The information provided by the minister supports his claim that, unlike in 2022, the country has the capacity to generate the electricity it needs, but now does not have the fuel necessary to do so. According to De la O, the countries that had obligations to Cuba to supply fuel have not been able to fulfill them, which coincides – coincidentally – with the statements made by Díaz-Canel in June 2022.
But if it is as the Cuban government says, that the problem lies with the producers and not the lack of liquidity, then where were the results of Díaz-Canel’s international tour in November 2022?
The Havana government has not stopped looking for new and old suppliers. In fact, he has recently found a political and economic ally in the Mexican government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Through the alliance, Cuba managed to get Mexico to ship about two million barrels of oil through Pemex and on Cuban-managed ships between May and August 2023. These volumes have led to Mexico overtaking Russia as the second largest oil supplier to Cuba in the second quarter of 2023.
But just a day before the roundtable aired, Bloomberg reported that the Mexican Foreign Ministry, led by Alicia Bárcena, mentioned that the Mexican government was looking for ways to ease pressure on public finances due to so-called “humanitarian assistance.” Therefore, they would explore mechanisms to charge a fee for the oil they donated to Cuba.
According to the report, in June 2023, Mexico sent 350,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba for free through Pemex, and in July that number increased to 700,000 barrels with a total value of $77 million.
However, given recent statements by Cuba’s economy and energy ministers, it is obvious that the country is not and will not be able to provide stable payments for the fuel it needs in the near future, and its allies are unwilling to do so to donate to him
It was also clear that government authorities are ready to face people’s anger and dissatisfaction over their decision to deprioritize residential electricity supply in order to try to stimulate other sectors of the economy, such as agriculture.
In summary, neither the situation nor the power outages in Cuba have been or will be a matter of days.