Vladimir Putin has decided to hand over the keys to the battlefield in Ukraine to his chief of staff, Valeri Guerassimov. The new head of operations will have to straighten out the military situation against the background of a power struggle with the Wagner group. Impossible Mission ?
Waltz of the leaders against the background of the power struggle in Moscow. Just three months after being charged with waging war in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin was forced to resign from his post on Wednesday 11 January. And not just anyone. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to entrust the fate of his “military special operation” in Ukraine to his chief of staff, Valeri Guerassimov.
He is “the third most important man in the Russian military hierarchy – after Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – who has to rectify the situation in Ukraine,” summarizes Jeff Hawn, a specialist on Russian military issues and adviser to the State Department, together with the New Lines Institute American Geopolitical Research Center.
More moderate than “General Armageddon”
Valéri Guerassimov is not only higher in rank than Sergei Surovikin. The two men are also said to have very different personalities. The “outgoing” was described as “brutal and cruel” or “executor without hesitation”.
Meanwhile, the new supreme commander of the Ukrainian front has “a solid CV in Chechnya and Crimea, and he is seen as a moderating influence on the course of the war. He’s also someone Americans can work with,” says Jeff Hawn.
“He’s definitely not some kind of ‘General Armageddon’ like Sergei Surovikin, but I don’t know what impact he can have on the course of the war,” notes Stephen Hall, a Russian policy expert at Bath University. “Even if he wanted to, Valeri Guerassimov doesn’t have the equipment, the means, or the men to fundamentally change the way the Russian army works,” Jeff Hawn believes.
>> Also read: “Evgeny Prigoyine to win the offensive of Putin’s ‘cook’ in Russia”
From a military point of view, the appointment of this general “essentially confirms that we can expect major offensives in the spring and that even Putin recognizes that better coordination between troops is needed,” estimated on Twitter Mark Galeotti, a specialist on Russian security issues. Valeri Guerassimov, in his two roles of Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and Commander of Operations in Ukraine, is said to have all the tools to improve this coordination.
Guerassimov sacrificed or Wagner weakened?
But this redistribution of roles is primarily of political significance. It comes at a crucial moment in the struggle for influence between Evguéni Prigojine and his mercenaries from the Wagner group on the one hand and the traditional army on the other.
The latter is currently not popular in Moscow. The war in Ukraine is not going as planned, and it “just suffered humiliation from the Ukrainian bombardment at Makiivka,” notes Jeff Hawn.
On the other hand, Evguéni Prigojine has been playing proudly since what the Wagner group presented as “his victory” at Soledar in Donbass. An attitude not appreciated by the Russian army: the staff hastened to point out that its paratroopers had made a large contribution to the fighting. Battles that, with all due respect to the Wagner group, still seem to be raging.
>> Also read: “Why Moscow wants to conquer Soledar at all costs”
But whatever the reality on the ground, the news being received in ultra-conservative circles in Moscow – who are very critical of the army – is that the Wagner group spearheaded one of the few Russian successes in Ukraine. Evguéni Prigojine seems to have made a point against his main rival in the Kremlin: Sergei Choigou, the defense minister. “They hate each other with all their hearts, and any action should be seen as an attempt to weaken the other in Vladimir Putin’s court,” says Jeff Hawn.
In this context, the appointment of Valéri Guerassimov can be explained in two ways. The most obvious thing would be to see “a call for order from Vladimir Putin to Evguéni Prigojine, so that he doesn’t believe that everything is allowed,” Stephen Hall estimates. In fact, the new head of operations is one of Sergei Shoigu’s closest associates and “it is certain that he will give the Wagner group much less freedom than his predecessor Sergei Surovikin, who is considered ideologically closer to Prigoyine,” adds the secretive Russian Politics.
This appointment also takes some of the weight off Sergei Shoigu’s shoulders. “He won’t have to constantly deal with Sergei Surovikin, who spent his time sticking knives in his back,” notes Stephen Hall.
Textbook case “Poutinerie”
It would be a textbook case of “Poutinerie”. The Kremlin lord does not appreciate that one of the factions of his court is taking the rise too much and “is starting to get too comfortable in the public eye,” adds Stephen Hall. This would have given Valéri Guerassimov the authority to bring the Wagner group back into line a little.
But it is a poisoned gift that Vladimir Putin gave his chief of staff. “From now on he is on the front lines and can no longer blame others if the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for the Russian army,” Jeff Hawn said.
It is not excluded that the new role of Valeri Guerassimov will also be his last in front of the exit door. “He is put in a position to fail, which gives Vladimir Putin the pretext to get rid of him and thereby please ultra-conservative circles,” Jeff Hawn analyzes.
Valeri Guerassimov’s situation is all the more precarious as he remains in Moscow. Indeed, the new role allocation means he has two seconds in Ukraine responsible for executing orders, one of which is none other than… Sergei Surovikin. The latter “might well try to carry on as before on the ground while lathering Valeri Guerassimov’s board of directors,” estimates Stephen Hall.
This appointment is therefore puzzling. It would be both good news and bad news for the Wagner group, strengthening the defense minister’s clan and significantly weakening one of Sergei Shoigu’s best allies.
Welcome to the mysteries of the intrigues on the corridors of the Kremlin in the era of Vladimir Putin. Because in the end, this decision is a textbook case of what the Russian president “does best: playing his collaborators off against each other so they’re too busy torturing each other, and letting the Russian president play the role of arbiter,” Stephen notes Hall fixed. Vladimir Putin suspected that the military setbacks in Ukraine were in danger of turning against him. He therefore decided to put his big cats in the same arena, Ukraine.
