The day is approaching when the people of Mexico City must decide who their new ruler will be. The latest photo of the political race for the capital's head of government shows a double-digit lead for Clara Brugada, standard bearer of the ruling coalition made up of Morena, the Greens and the Labor Party. The three-time mayor of Iztapalapa has 56% of the actual electoral preferences, 16 points more than her closest competitor, the opposition alliance Santiago Taboada from the alliance of PAN, PRI and PRD, which has a total of 40% of the preferences, according to the latest Enkoll poll for EL PAÍS, the third controversial candidate, Salomón Chertorivski of Movimiento Ciudadano, is in a distant third place with 4%. Effective preference counts citizens who have declared a voting preference and excludes those who are undecided and those who reported not having a favorite candidate.
The election campaign officially begins next Friday and the candidates for the government of the capital have about three months to try to influence the vote in their favor. However, little has changed in the development of preferences in the city. Brugada had an early lead over Taboada, the two-time mayor of Benito Juárez, a wealthy district, and was able to maintain that advantage up to this point in the campaign. Enkoll published a measurement in January in which the former mayor of Iztapalapa accounted for 55% of the effective preferences and Taboada 42%, showing that within a month the gap between first and second places increased in Brugada's favor.
Taboada, 38, doesn't have it easy and faces a historic mission: trying to wrest the capital's government from the leftists, who have been in control of Mexico City for almost three decades. The President of the Republic, the popular Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was head of government, as was the ruling party's presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, who was also front-runner in the polls, and Marcelo Ebrard, another icon of the left-wing movement. 60% of respondents believe that the best thing for the city is for Morena to continue to govern. 38% think a change of government would be better. In addition, 66% of the capital's residents approve of the work of President López Obrador and 68% of Sheinbaum's leadership during his term between 2018 and 2023.
The left's roots in the capital are not Taboada's only problem. The former mayor also has to bear the bad reputation of the PRI, Mexico's longest-running and most despised party, which is now allied with the PAN, in which the candidate is active. The survey shows that 43% of the capital's residents would never vote for the PRI in an election for head of government; 24% reject Morena and 17% reject the PAN. On the contrary: 53% said they would vote for Morena and 23% for the PAN. When asked which candidate they would never vote for, 34% personally mentioned Taboada, while 25% mentioned Brugada.
Another factor that plays against Taboada is that his faction, the PAN of Benito Juárez, was investigated by the capital's prosecutor's office for corruption in the real estate cartel, a business plan between officials and businessmen with construction projects approved by the mayor's office, Taboada himself accused of diverting 10 million pesos during his term in office as part of the same corrupt conspiracy. The candidate has pointed out in his defense that it is a political persecution of the ruling party that governs the city. As a result, public perception of Taboada is polarized. Between January and February, the number of people who have a good and very good opinion of the candidate increased by three percentage points (today it is 30%), but also the proportion of people who have a bad and very bad opinion, has increased by two points. from him (it stayed at 18). 51% of respondents have a positive opinion of Brugada (it increased by two points from January to February), and 16% have a negative opinion (there was no change).
The capital's residents were asked about the city's problems, a question that inevitably subjects left-wing governments to assessment. An overwhelming 56% said the main problem was uncertainty. Water scarcity was second with 13% of mentions, at a time when low water levels in the Cutzamala system, the water network that supplies the capital and the metropolitan region, have raised alarm among authorities and the public. The number of people worried about water has increased by nine percentage points since January, as water shortages worsen. 6% of respondents cited economic problems, including unemployment, low wages and rising product prices.
Insecurity and violence were one of the main culprits of the Morena governments at the federal and local levels. It is true that during Sheinbaum's term as president, the number of serious crimes has decreased, largely because the capital's police force is the largest and best prepared in the country, thanks in part to the work of Omar García. Harfuch, former Minister for Security and Coordination between Local Authorities and Federal Forces. Taking advantage of the need for protection among the capital's residents, Taboada campaigned with this flag in the popular neighborhoods ruled by Morena. Recognizing that this is a huge open problem, Brugada has declared that mayors must have “security powers” (currently this function is centralized in the city government).
88% of the capital's residents said it was somewhat likely and very likely that they would vote on June 2, a sign that the elections are exciting the electorate and a light of hope against abstentions. As the powerful figure López Obrador circles the electoral process even without appearing on the ballot, Morena will have his public policies scrutinized at the federal and local levels. Citizens will decide whether to opt for the continuity of this project or whether to renew their trust in the PRI and the PAN and allow them to return to power. In the case of MC, poll predictions point to the orange party disappearing from the Mexican electoral map. The campaigns and debates between the candidates are just around the corner.
Survey methodological sheet
806 effective interviews were conducted with men and women aged 18 and over with a valid voter ID card from their place of residence, distributed by type of survey as follows: 433 in person at home and 373 by telephone.
The survey period was from February 16 to 19, 2024.
47% of respondents were men and 53% were women.
Sample selection. The sample is representative of Mexico City.
Precision and trust. The results have a margin of error of approximately +/- 3.5% at a 95% confidence level for the main indicators. The study rejection rate is 44.3% and the attempt rate is 61.3%.
Source: Enkoll
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