(CNN) Deadly heatwaves fueled by climate change threaten India’s development and risk undoing its progress on poverty reduction, health and economic growth, a new study has found.
Heatwaves have already hit the country critically, leading to power outages, increased dust and air pollution and accelerated glacial melt in northern India, University of Cambridge researchers said in the study published in the journal PLOS climate on Wednesday.
Since 1992, more than 24,000 people have died due to heat waves in India, the study said.
And the impact is expected to worsen as heat waves become more frequent, intense and deadly due to the climate crisis.
“India is currently facing a collision of multiple cumulative climate hazards,” the researchers said.
“Long-term projections suggest that by 2050, Indian heatwaves could exceed the survival limit for a healthy person resting in the shade.”
The study shows that millions more people in India are affected by climate change than initially thought. More than 90% of the country could be severely affected by heatwaves and fall into an extreme heat “danger zone,” the government said Heat index, the study found.
The heat index indicates how hot it feels and takes into account both air temperature and humidity to assess the impact of heat on the population.
Last year, India experienced a searing heatwave, with parts of the country reaching temperatures in excess of 49°C (120°F).
In 2022, India experienced its hottest April in 122 years and hottest March on record, the study found. And there was extreme weather on 242 out of 273 days between January and October 2022, the researchers found.
Such repeated heat stress will turn millions of lives and livelihoods upside down.
“Estimates show a 15% decline in outdoor work capacity…in daylight due to extreme heat by 2050,” the study says. “The increased heat is projected to cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and lower living standards by 2050 and 2100, respectively.”
According to the study, 70 Indian cities will have more than 1 million inhabitants by the middle of the century.
Extreme heat will pose a threat to these people’s energy security and health, and reverse gains in inequality and poverty reduction, the researchers noted.
“My family in Kolkata is suffering from the current heatwaves, which are causing frequent load shedding,” said study author Dr. Ramit Debnath, in a note on forced power outages that reduce stress on the grid. “The climate-energy nexus is becoming more and more relevant,” he added.
Typically, it is the poorest and most vulnerable who will suffer the most.
Heat waves will have “unprecedented consequences for the low-income population,” the study says. As an example, the authors cite the rapidly urbanizing capital New Delhi, which “exhibits a high level of construction activity, involving mainly low-income workers who are also highly vulnerable to the effects of the heatwave”.
While India has a “Climate Vulnerability Index” that it uses to assess its vulnerability to the climate crisis, the authors believe this underestimates the impact of heat waves on the country’s development.
India has committed to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, a list of 17 goals that include reducing poverty, hunger, inequality and disease, and promoting health, education and sanitation.
By failing to understand the true threat posed by heatwaves to its people, India risks missing these goals.
Study co-author Professor Ronita Bardhan said the recommendations could be used to build heat resilience in low-income housing, as “these communities are the most vulnerable to heat stress”.
“Heat health packages for low-income and slum dwellers are particularly important as we show that heat waves have devastating effects on urban sustainability,” she said.
Another practical application is urban greening strategies in high-density areas, which “can provide relief from urban heat island effects,” Bardhan said.
The authors stress the “urgency” of recommending India to update its extreme weather assessment to include the heat index and its implications for India’s sustainable development.
“India has shown tremendous leadership in expanding heat action plans over the past five years, declaring heat waves a natural disaster and mobilizing adequate relief resources,” the authors said.
But “as heat waves in India and the Indian subcontinent become recurring and protracted, it is high time climate experts and policymakers reevaluated the metrics used to assess the country’s climate vulnerability.”