Without air superiority, the Russian advance has stalled, gaining little new territory in recent days, and casualties are mounting. Between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops died on Wednesday, the Pentagon estimated, with observers saying the number of Russian tanks, missile launchers and trucks lost is in the hundreds.
Russian-Ukrainian war: what you need to know
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On the ground. Russian forces, battered by local resistance, have intensified their artillery shelling of Ukraine, hitting areas further from the front line. Satellite images of the convoy north of Kyiv suggest that Russia will relocate its forces there for a new offensive.
Iranian nuclear deal. A European Union official said talks to renew the 2015 deal had been suspended following the invasion. Russia, which signed the agreement, tried to use the final approval of the deal as leverage to ease the sanctions imposed because of the war.
At the start of the war, Ukraine had five to twenty Bayraktar TB2s in service. Russia claims to have shot down several of them, and it is not clear how many remain. However, Ukraine continues to release video images showing drones destroying Russian vehicles.
Air superiority is seen as a critical first step in modern warfare, and military forces spend a lot of time and money trying to ensure they can quickly dominate the skies when hostilities begin. Strategists studying Russia assumed it would launch immediate missile strikes to destroy the Ukrainian Air Force and SAM batteries before they could be deployed, then deploy dozens of fighter jets, radar jammers and missile trucks to take control of the airspace. Ukraine. space. By establishing air superiority, Russia was free to use its fighters, bombers and drones to destroy the Ukrainian army.
That did not happen.
In the early days of the invasion, the Russian military appeared to hold back much of its air power, perhaps in the belief that the Ukrainian military would not fight back. Instead, Russian forces met with fierce resistance; as they tried to deploy mobile rocket launchers and electronic warfare equipment to control airspace, the convoys were ambushed by Ukrainians before they could enter the battlefield.
“This is definitely not the way we would conduct an air campaign,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at the CNA Military Research Institute in Arlington, Virginia.
“But then again, this war didn’t start the way the Russian military organizes and trains to fight,” he said. “It was a failed regime change operation that turned into a war they didn’t really plan.”
But the absence of a quick Russian victory does not mean a victory for Ukraine, Mr. Kofman added, noting that Ukraine continues to lose aircraft due to Russian missiles, and it is not possible to find out the true state of the air war from official statements and statements. only news bulletins.