The climb is less steep, but the descent is not yet in sight. According to the latest projections of the Global Carbon Budget, a report released on Tuesday, December 5, by the Global Carbon Project collective, which brings together one hundred and twenty-one scientists and ninety-five organizations, global CO2 emissions linked to production and consumption of fossil fuels will be 36, 8 billion tons of carbon dioxide (or 36.8 gigatons – GtCO2). in 2023.
This represents an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022, and this total is still 1.4% above 2019 levels, just before the temporary decline related to the global Covid-19 epidemic. And if we take into account the deficit associated with land use changes (e.g. deforestation), the result is 40.9 Gt CO2.
The greenhouse effect is increasing year after year. “Atmospheric CO2 levels are expected to reach an average of 419.3 ppm [parties par million] in 2023, or 51% more than pre-industrial levels,” says the study, which warns that the most ambitious threshold of the 2015 Paris Agreement could soon be exceeded: “If current levels of CO2 emissions continue, this will remain remaining carbon budget to limit warming.” The temperature increase to 1.5 °C could be exceeded in seven years with a probability of 50%. »
“We just accelerate more slowly”
While reducing or phasing out fossil fuels is expected to be discussed at the 28th World Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the world’s dependence on these fuels is still immense.
Specifically, emissions related to coal (41% of the total) are expected to increase by 1.1%, those related to oil (32%) by 1.5% and those related to natural gas (21%) by 0.5%. The only clarification in this table is that CO2 release is increasing less than in the past: + 0.5% in the last decade (2013-2022), which is below the 2.6% annual growth observed in the last decade lies. in the previous decade (2003). -2012).
“We are in a world where emissions continue to increase, but less quickly, there is concern that they should be reduced,” summarizes Philippe Ciais, researcher at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences and member of this collective. It’s like when a wall comes up and you’re traveling at 120 km/h, you brake but only accelerate more slowly. » The United Nations Environment Program report published on November 20 recommended a 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to limit warming to +1.5°C.
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