College football bowl projections: Oklahoma State jumps into New Year’s Six as top teams tested in Week 5

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It’s not easy being king. Georgia takes the best of all and Missouri’s was almost good enough on Saturday. The Bulldogs rallied with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat the Tigers and stay No. 1 in this week’s College Football Playoff Prediction.

Earlier in the day, predicted No. 3 Alabama saw reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young injured in the first half in Arkansas. Backup quarterback Jalen Milroe came off the bench to lead the Crimson Tide to a big win. Clemson stuck to his projected No. 4 even after a 30-20 win over NC State. The wolf pack is still projected onto the ACC spot in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State was the only team in our CFP projection to have an easy time. Rutgers was no match for the expected No. 2 seed Buckeyes in a 49-10 loss.

College Football Playoff

Where the wheels seemed to fall off on Saturday was for the Sooner Schooner. Oklahoma gave up 41 first-half points in a 55-24 loss at TCU. The Sooners have completely fallen out of New Year’s Six Bowl projections, being replaced by expected Big 12 champion Oklahoma State. The Cowboys pulled off a major win at Baylor and now appear to be the favorites in the conference race.

The Pac-12 race for the Rose Bowl, or possibly the CFP, is going to heat up for the next few weeks. Favorite Utah is at undefeated UCLA next Saturday; it turns over and hosts USC the following week. The Trojans face a strong Washington State team at home ahead of this clash with the Utes. The Bruins will have a week off after the Utah game to prepare for a trip to Oregon. The only non-regular season matchup between these four teams is USC vs. Oregon.

If any of those four go undefeated and secure a spot in the CFP, it’s possible that two of the others could take part in the New Year’s six-a-side games.

New Year’s Six Bowl Games

There are still four teams with under-.500 records in this week’s bowl projections, but only three of them are 5-7. Army West Point is still expected with a 5-6 finish and a bowl placement despite a loss to Georgia State. The Black Knights are expected to finish 6-6 overall, but with two wins against FCS opponents, ultimately only one of them will count for bowl eligibility.

This week, some questions came up about whether James could become Madison Bowl-eligible if there weren’t enough teams to fill slots. While there is a relatively new stipulation for a team transitioning to FBS to go to a bowl – when it would have otherwise been eligible and when there is an opening – this only applies to teams in the final year of their transition to FBS. For James Madison, that will be next season.

Don’t see your team? Check out the rest of Jerry Palm’s shell projections after week 5.