Last week I had a strong week picking games and last week went 8-3 against the spread to get two under .500 against the number for the season. The Good: Picking Kentucky to beat Mississippi State. The Bad: Picking USC to deal with Utah. The Ugly: Pick Penn State to keep it close to Michigan.
(All point spreads are from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kick-off times Eastern.)
No. 21 Cincinnati (-3.5) at SMU, noon, ESPN
The Mustangs’ defense was very suspect, giving up over 200 rushing yards per game. I think Cincinnati coming out after a idle week after a blind performance against USF can benefit.
Cincinnati 35, SMU 28
Choose: Cincinnati-3.5
No. 14 Syracuse at No. 5 Clemson (-13.5), noon, ABC
Dino Babers will have his team well prepared and the Oranges have enough playmakers to keep this game interesting well into the fourth quarter. But I just can’t pick Clemson at home to lose straight away.
Clemson 27, Syracuse 23
Choose: Syracuse +13.5
Iowa State #2 Ohio (-29.5), Noon, Fox
Only Michigan has surpassed 14 points with the Hawkeyes (27), but the Buckeyes have a lot more firepower than these other teams. Ohio State will stretch Iowa more across the field than the Wolverines.
State of Ohio 35, Iowa 9
Choose: Iowa +29.5
#7 Ole Miss at LSU (-2), 3:30 p.m., CBS
This is the biggest test the Rebels have had yet, especially since LSU is a tough street environment. But like when the Volunteers came to LSU, it wasn’t a night game, and that’s a big difference from Baton Rouge. Expect Lane Kiffin’s team to pass that test.
Ole Miss 27, LSU 21
Choose: Ole Miss +2
No. 20 Texas (-6.5) in No. 11 Oklahoma State, 3:30, ABC
The Oklahoma state defense allows more than 300 passing yards per game. The guess here is that Quinn Ewers will lighten the Cowboys’ defense and lead Texas to a nice road win.
Texas 40, Oklahoma 32
Choose: Texas -6.5
No. 9 UCLA in No. 10 Oregon (-6), 3:30 p.m., Fox
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been exceptional and the Ducks’ pass defenses have not been great so far. However, I think Oregon’s defense is responding well to the challenge and keeping Bo Nix’s wheels alive enough drives to give Oregon a narrow win.
Oregon 31, UCLA 28
Choose: UCLA +6
No. 24 Mississippi State at No. 6 Alabama (-21), 7 p.m. ESPN
The Tide has not lost a consecutive regular season game since 2007. Their last two regular-season losses came before games against Mississippi State, and they won those two by 71 points combined.
Alabama 38, Mississippi 10
Choose: Alabama-21
Minnesota at Penn State No. 16 (-4), 7:30 p.m., ABC
Even though Penn State was injured in Michigan last week and the Golden Gophers have a lucky star in Mo Ibrahim, the suspicion here is that the Nittany Lions will do whatever it takes to try to take it away.
Penn State 27, Minnesota 20
Choose: Penn State-4
#17 Kansas State at #8 TCU (-3.5), 8 p.m. FS1
Can anyone slow down in the Big 12 TCU? Kansas State has very good defense and keeps opponents at 16.7 PPG, but I think Sonny Dykes’ crew is too strong to put the brakes on right now.
TCU 34, State of Kansas 24
Choose: TCU-3.5
Toledo (-7.5) at Buffalo, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Buffalo’s defense has only allowed 14 points over the past two weeks, but the speedy DeQuan Finn has a lot of different problems. I think he’ll be too much for the cops.
Toledo 35, Buffalo 23
Choose: Toledo -7.5
Angry Special: BYU (-7) at Liberty, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Cougars are coming off a 17-point loss to a physical Arkansas roster and I think there could be some lasting impact, especially with a trip across the country.
Freedom 30, BYU 27
Choose: Freedom +7
(Photo: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)