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Last week, despite a terrible bad beat at LSU-Missouri, I finally got back on the right side of .500. And I improved to 5-1 by mastering my Upset Specials.
And what a great selection of games we have this week.
Last week: 6-5 against the spread. Season: 30-35-1.
(All points spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kick-off times Easter and Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
Tulane (-4.5) at Memphis, Friday, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Tulane, last year’s Cotton Bowl champion, fell out of the rankings and off the radar after losing to Ole Miss in Week 2, but the Green Wave played that game without injured QB Michael Pratt. He’s back and Tulane has won its last three games comfortably. Memphis has the same 4-1 record, but has mostly been winning.
Tulane 30, Memphis 24
The selection: Tulane -4.5
No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington (-3), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
I’ve started to believe that Oregon is the most complete Pac-12 team. Both star QBs are productive, but the Ducks also lead the country with 7.0 yards per rush attempt; Washington averages 4.7 yards per rush. Oregon’s defense also made a statement with its complete dominance over Colorado, although the Huskies will have much better pass protection.
Oregon 34, Washington 30
The selection: Oregon +3
Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee (-3.5), 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
Through six games, it’s evident that A&M’s defense is dominant on the run (2.6 yards per carry) and porous on the pass (7.5 yards per attempt). That’s not ideal for the Vols, who have thrived in the running game this season (6.2 yards per carry, No. 2 nationally). But quarterback Joe Milton can make enough plays through the air to win what might be a low-scoring affair.
Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 20
The selection: Tennessee -3.5
Iowa at Wisconsin (-10), 4 p.m. (Fox)
Welcome to the Big Ten West Championship Game. It shows how pathetic Iowa’s 127th-ranked offense is, being a 10-point underdog against a Wisconsin team that hasn’t exactly moved the ball at will (ranked 65th nationally in yards per play). As always, the Hawkeyes’ best hope is to get a pick six here and a blocked punt there.
Wisconsin 10, Iowa 3
The selection: Iowa +10
Auburn at No. 22 LSU (-11.5), 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Auburn catches LSU at a good time – it’s coming off an idle week while LSU is coming off back-to-back shootouts against Ole Miss and Missouri. But even against LSU’s terrible defense, it’s hard to see how Auburn, which averages just 15.0 points in league play, can keep up with Jayden Daniels, Logan Diggs and Malik Nabers.
LSU 41, Auburn 27
The selection: LSU -11.5
Wyoming at Air Force (-10.5), 7 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
So far it’s a showdown between the two best teams in the Mountain West, and while Wyoming at 5-1 has beaten both Texas Tech and Fresno State, Air Force at 5-0 is a much better team statistically. The Falcons’ defense allows just 4.27 yards per play, No. 6 nationally and even fewer than Georgia, Michigan and Alabama.
Air Force 21, Wyoming 10
The selection: Air Force -10.5
Missouri at No. 24 Kentucky (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Kentucky never intended to beat Georgia, but its defense completely imploded, allowing Carson Beck to rush for a season-high 389 yards and four touchdowns. That’s not a good sign when going up against Brady Cook, Luther Burden and the rest of the Tigers’ explosive offense. Unless running back Ray Davis plans to rush for 280 yards again.
Missouri 35, Kentucky 28
The selection: Missouri +2.5
No. 10 USC at No. 21 Notre Dame (-3), 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
On the one hand, I am sure that the defensively challenged USC will fail at some point. But I’m also worried that Notre Dame might be exhausted after three tough primetime games in a row (Ohio State, Duke and Louisville). Overall, I don’t think Sam Hartman and the Irish receivers can keep up with Caleb Williams and Co.
USC 38, Notre Dame 34
The selection: USC +3
No. 25 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Thanks to the infamous no-knee system, no one cares that Miami is actually a much better team in its second year under Mario Cristobal. (But it should have beaten Georgia Tech.) Tyler Van Dyke remains the sixth-best passer in the country, even after throwing three picks last week. But UNC has Drake Maye, Omarion Hampton and a better-than-expected defense.
North Carolina 34, Miami 24
The selection: North Carolina -3.5
UCLA, No. 15 Oregon State (-3.5), 8 p.m. (Fox)
UCLA’s defense is No. 1 in yards allowed per game (3.7) and No. 3 in stop rate (84.6 percent). This makes me a little nervous about Beavers quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who as we know can be quite the all-around player. But he is far more experienced than Bruins rookie QB Dante Moore, who struggled mightily in his first Pac-12 road start at Utah.
Oregon State 20, UCLA 15
The selection: Oregon State -3.5
This week’s Upset special
BYU at TCU (-6), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The horned frogs are hurting. QB Chandler Morris suffered an MCL sprain in last week’s 27-14 loss to Iowa State. His replacement, redshirt freshman Josh Hoover, has attempted 23 passes in his career. BYU, which will be sidelined for 15 days, is by no means a strong defensive player, but quarterback Kedon Slovis can help the Cougars put up points.
BYU 30, TCU 24
The selection: BYU +6
(Top photo: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)