The most important thing anyone betting on college football should know is that they don't know what's going to happen. All you can do is arm yourself with as much knowledge as possible to make an educated guess about what is likely to happen. After that, hope for the best.
Then there's bowl season, when even that isn't enough. There's really no way to know how a bowl game will turn out because there are too many factors to consider that don't come into play during the regular season. There are departures, transfers and interim coaching staffs that make it almost impossible to accurately predict how a game will play out. In addition, you also have to find out which team is motivated to be there.
Bowl game betting is far more art than science, but we're not straddling the lines here. It's more like a painting where you dip your brush in paint and rub it onto the canvas, causing the paint to splatter everywhere. Jackson Pollack would have liked to bet on bowl games.
This is what I'm trying to say: have fun betting on bowls. Don't overwhelm yourself thinking you have an advantage. Risk as much as you need to get some cheer from watching the game, and take all the advice in my tips with caution. Now let's move on to some featured tips for a loaded bowl list this week.
SportsLine consensus odds
Bowls of the week
Cotton Bowl – No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri (Friday): As with any postseason game involving top 10 teams that is not a College Football Playoff game, many key players will be missing. Ohio State lost its starting quarterback to Syracuse and one of its top receivers to Penn State. Mizzou will be without several key players on defense. Then there are the players who could choose to sit out on Ohio State's side but haven't made an announcement yet.
My gut tells me that while players like Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson and JT Tuimoloau might choose to play, their agents probably think otherwise. So I assume they'll sit it out. Even if they play, how good will Ohio State's offense be? Kyle McCord may not have been a world-beater for the Buckeyes, but he still won the starting job. Based on what we know, there is more reason to trust the Missouri offense. Selection: Missouri +1 (-110)
Sun Bowl – No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State (Friday): If you haven't been keeping track, Oregon State lost coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State. Then his starting QB and backup QB entered the transfer portal, as did several other players. The Fighting Irish have plenty of players in the portal themselves, including most of their top receivers, as QB Sam Hartman prepares for the NFL. The same goes for all-world left tackle Joe Alt and leading rusher Audric Estime.
It's pretty hard to imagine any of these crimes having a field day with that knowledge, isn't it? Yes, the total for this game is low and we are one or two mistakes away from inexperienced QBs scoring some defensive touchdowns, but common sense should prevail in most cases. Selection: Under 41.5 (-108)
Castle of the week
Alamo Bowl – No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona (Thursday): I call on the Alamo Bowl to live up to its glorious past. No bowl game is more reliable for entertainment and shenanigans than the Alamo Bowl. Since 2010, the Alamo Bowl has averaged 71.3 points per game in 13 games. The winning team scored at least 40 points in six of these games and at least 30 points in eleven of them. The losing team averaged 27.9 points.
There are Arizona and Oklahoma, two teams that can rack up points quickly. The Sooners won't have Dillon Gabriel, but the folks in Norman are excited about Jackson Arnold for good reason. Then there's Arizona and Noah Fifita, who have been one of the most entertaining teams all season. Selection: Over 62 (-110)
Outsider of the week
Quick Lane Bowl – Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (Tuesday): A rumor spread online that Minnesota had to pay QB Cole Kramer money to come back and play in this game. Starter Athan Kaliakmanis and third-stringer Drew Viotto left the team through the portal as Kramer was ready to begin his life after college. Whether you believe the rumor or not (I'm skeptical about the numbers), the point is that Minnesota is not in a good position for this game. Nevertheless, it is popular.
On paper, Minnesota is the better team despite its opt-outs, but how excited is a 5-7 Gophers team playing a bowl game in Detroit the day after Christmas? I'm assuming they're not very excited. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is essentially at full strength and has a chance to knock off a Big Ten opponent. Selection: Bowling Green +3.5 (-110)
Mood check of the week
Military Bowl – Virginia Tech vs. Tulane (Wednesday): If these teams played in October, Tulane would be heavily favored and I would advise you to embrace the Green Wave. But it's not October – it's bowl season, Tulane has lost coach Willie Fritz and starting QB Michael Pratt is preparing for the NFL. This team played in the Cotton Bowl last year. If ever there was a candidate for a team that didn't want to be here, this Tulane team is it.
Then there's Virginia Tech, entering its second season under Brent Pry. The Hokies rebounded from a 1-3 start to the season to now sit at 6-6 and are looking to build momentum again in the offseason. I told you that bowling is more art than science, but if there's a science to it, it's this: If the 6-6 team is favored by double digits over the 11-2 team, there's a reason for it. Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5 (-110)
Pastry game of the week
Pop-Tarts Bowl – No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State (Thursday): If both teams show motivation to play, it could be one of the best bowls we see this year. I'm optimistic they will do that. Kansas State won't have Will Howard at QB since he's in the transfer portal, but the main reason he's in the portal is because he's not guaranteed the starting job in Manhattan, Kansas next season. Avery Johnson is the future for Kansas State, and he'll get the start here. I don't know if we can expect much of a drop-off from Kansas State's offense.
Of course, NC State has been a team that has exceeded expectations for most of the season. Brennan Armstrong was benched for MJ Morris, but Morris opted out of the remainder of the season after four games to retain his redshirt. It was the kind of situation that could derail a season. Instead, the Wolfpack ended the year with five straight wins. Still, the wildcats are slightly better, so I'm on the cats' side in the latest battle between cats and dogs. Pick: Kansas State -2.5 (-110)
Regular season | 54-33-1 | +17.75 |
Bowl season | 0-0 | 0.00 |
In total | 54-33-1 | +17.75 |
What college football picks can you make with confidence during bowl season? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all using a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit over the last seven-plus seasons – and find out.