I’m not sure which teams I fully trust at the top of college football right now. Even No. 1 Georgia, the two-time defending national champions, looks relatively dull. The quality at the top of the Pac-12 — undoubtedly the best conference top-to-bottom in the country — is great, but preseason favorite No. 9 USC still doesn’t seem to have a functioning defense. No. 4 Ohio State passed a big test at No. 10 Notre Dame, but perhaps needed some luck to do so. No. 2 Michigan is untested at best. No. 3 Texas played well, but I hesitate to say the Longhorns are “back” until we have a complete winning season. Hopefully the month of October can help us separate the wheat from the chaff.
Every week I use this space to tell you what I think are some of the best bets for the weekend. I’m also including a surprise of the week, which involves a team that’s at least a touchdown underdog that I’ll pick first overall. I’ll also give you tips on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. This early in the season, any major conference team that hasn’t lost twice is still technically a CFP contender. Therefore, I’m going with the current top 12 of the AP Top 25 rankings for now.
Last week wasn’t the best for my picks as some normally reliable teams weren’t that reliable. I will be returning to at least one of these wells this week. I’m 7-5 on the season and the Upset Special is still waiting for the first hit, so I’m due. Let’s get to this week’s tips.
SportsLine consensus odds
Week 6 Pick
No. 2 Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota
Michigan’s defense simply destroys every team it plays. You can’t compete against them. Last week, Nebraska ran for an average of 235 yards per game and gained 106 yards against the Wolverines. You can’t compete against them because the attempts are usually made out of desperation. Minnesota has shown us no reason to believe it will be the first team to get within three touchdowns of Michigan. Pick: Michigan (-19.5)
No. 11 Alabama (-2.5) at Texas A&M
Texas A&M lost starting quarterback Conner Weigman for the remainder of the season after he injured his leg against Auburn two weeks ago. Former LSU transfer Max Johnson played well last week and led the Aggies to a win against Arkansas, but Alabama is different. The Crimson Tide had arguably their best performance of the season last week at Mississippi State. While Bama still doesn’t look like BAMA, it’s hard to trust Texas A&M in games like this. Pick: Alabama (-2.5)
Purdue at Iowa (O/U 38.5)
Iowa QB Cade McNamara will likely miss this season after suffering a leg injury against Michigan State last week. That’s a huge blow to an offense that struggles to score under the best of circumstances. Purdue’s offense is showing signs of improvement, but Iowa’s defense is a tough nut to crack. This game will only end if the defense or special teams score. This can happen because each team’s defense and special teams have scored this season. Selection: Under (38.5)
Surprise of the week
North Texas at Navy (-6)
North Texas has the worst rushing defense in the country, allowing 242 yards per game. Against the Navy, this isn’t a big deal, except that the Midshipmen are one-dimensional; You just have to defend the run. The Mean Green also give up 262 yards per game through the air, but Navy can’t take advantage of that. I expect the Navy’s defense will have bigger problems than the defense of North Texas. Selection: North Texas (+6)
Other CFP candidates
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 6 and which underdogs will clearly win? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all using a proven computer model that has returned more than $2,000 in profit over the last seven-plus seasons – and find out.