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We just have to sleep again until we have a new poll to debate. Sam Khan Jr. joins me today to preview this season’s first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night.
Here’s what’s happening in college football between now and Saturday…
Big week in Kansas
Top 5 stays, Oklahoma falls
Another AP poll was released yesterday and the top five remain the same. Here are those five (with first place votes in parentheses):
1. Georgia (48)
2. Michigan (9)
3. Ohio State (3)
4. State of Florida (3)
5. Washington
Last week we predicted that Oklahoma could be one of the first remaining undefeated teams to lose. That proved true when the Sooners were upset on the road by Kansas and OU dropped four spots to No. 10. Oregon State (No. 16) and Utah (No. 18) each dropped five spots after losses in Week 9, while Kansas State had its best week of the season.
Kansas (6-2) is back at No. 22 in the poll after defeating Oklahoma Kansas State (6-2) appeared at No. 25 after defeating Houston 41-0.
- The Wildcats may have one of the strangest resumes in college football. A loss to Oklahoma State (who lost to G5 South Alabama) seemed to derail the reigning Big 12 champion Wildcats, but that loss doesn’t look bad now that the Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak.
- Meanwhile, K-State’s beat Texas Tech and held TCU and Houston to just three points combined over the past three weeks. The Wildcats’ defense is allowing a Big 12-low 15.9 points per game but faces its biggest test yet this week at No. 7 Texas.
Of course, the AP rankings won’t be the focus on Tuesday night when the CFP Committee publishes its first ranking list. I predicted my top four yesterday (Georgia, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan), and this group is the same as the one at the top of the AP poll, just in a different order.
- As for the rest of the 25, the same wildcats could be the biggest winner in the playoff standings, with several impressive wins and two respectable losses (one against ranked Missouri and another against upstart Oklahoma State).
- Oregon Statecould fall from its AP ranking of 16th with losses to unranked Arizona and Washington State.
No. 25 Kansas State plays No. 7 Texas on Saturday. (Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
CFP predictions
Big 12 hopes, top four to watch
Now let’s get to the CFP rankings and find out what Sam thinks about what to expect on Tuesday night with a quick question and answer session:
What needs to happen for the Big 12 to get a team into the playoffs?
Either Texas or Oklahoma must win the remaining games, including the Big 12 Championship. The only time a Big 12 champion was eliminated from the playoffs with a single loss was the first year, 2014, when TCU and Baylor both finished 11-1. If either Texas or Oklahoma are 12-1, it won’t be left out.
When the Big 12 champion has two losses? That will derail the conference’s CFP hopes. No team with two losses made it to the playoffs.
Both the Longhorns (7-1) and Sooners (7-1) will be tested this weekend. Texas, which is without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, hosts Kansas State. Oklahoma visits rival Oklahoma State in the final edition of Bedlam – at least for the foreseeable future. Emotions and tensions will run high in Stillwater.
Which team will see the biggest jump in the playoff rankings compared to the AP poll?
It could be Louisville. The Cardinals (7-1) are ranked 15th in the latest AP poll, behind a two-loss Notre Dame team (No. 12) that they beat. Louisville’s loss to Pitt was obviously tough, but the committee values quality wins more than bad losses.
And the Cardinals bounced back by shutting out No. 20 Duke, so the winning performance still lingers in the minds of committee members.
Louisville has a 4-0 record against Power 5 teams with winning records. No team in the AP Top 10 can say the same. That and the win over Notre Dame could put the Cardinals over the Irish in the committee’s eyes.
What is your prediction for the top 4?
What will the panel give more weight to: the eye test or the CV? In the first case, Georgia will be No. 1. If the latter is the case, Ohio State has the strongest case for the top spot. The Buckeyes have two wins over ranked teams and are 4-0 against FBS teams over .500, while Georgia has no ranked wins and just two wins over winning FBS teams.
Still, I expect the committee will agree with the reigning champion and the CFP top four will reflect the AP poll:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. State of Florida
Matt Brown has more polls and CFP rankings analysis in his weekly Behind The Ballot.
The Wild West of the Big Ten
Welcome back, Nebraska
The Big Ten West is just as chaotic as we expected. And by messy I mean brutally ugly. Iowa (6-2 overall), Minnesota (5-3), Nebraska (5-3) and Wisconsin (5-3) are 3-2 in conference play and are tied for first place in the division.
Northwestern (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten) just beat an experienced Maryland squad, while Purdue (2-6, 1-4) and Illinois (3-5, 1-4) are tied for last place. A few things to keep in mind as the season continues:
It’s funny that we thought the West would be largely decided if Iowa beat Wisconsin this month. Then the Hawkeyes lost to Minnesota and fell into madness again. Wisconsin’s defense appeared solid in a loss to Ohio State, and the Badgers should be able to beat Indiana and Northwestern over the next two weeks.
I would circle Nebraska in Wisconsin At November 18 And Iowa, Nebraska At November 24th as the games with perhaps the biggest impact on this division title race. And whoever wins… good luck in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Quick snapshots
Chris Vannini’s rankings of all 133 FBS teams are crowded at the top, led by Ohio State.
For trainers like Deion Sanders and others, some things are better left unsaid, writes our David Ubben.
Florida QB signs DJ Lagway had a huge game with his arm (383 yards, four touchdowns) and his legs (13 carries for 220 yards). Grace Raynor has more prospect updates in her weekly prep report.
UNC’s Tez Walker was released from the hospital yesterday after suffering a serious blow against Georgia Tech on Saturday. The school said in a statement that “Tez is doing better.”
Former Kentucky QB Will Levis threw four touchdowns in his NFL debut with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
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(Top photo of Lance Leipold, right, and Mello Dotson: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)