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The 2022 college football season concluded with the championship weekend providing all the clarity we needed to close the college football playoffs, the New Year’s Six Bowl games and the final CFP rankings of the year project. This does not mean, however, that the CFP selection committee has an easy task ahead of them; It’s just that a lot of them are cut and dried.
Before we get to the rankings themselves, here’s a refresher listing some of the key points that committee members consider when deciding on a team’s ranking beyond their field record:
- strength of the schedule
- Conference Championships (if decided)
- head to head
- Results against common opponents
- Results vs. opponents in the ranking
Thankfully, the committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is different than what you’re used to. The rankings they use are the previous week’s CFP rankings. They don’t take into account where the teams were ranked when the games were played, neither in the CFP nor in the AP Top 25 etc. Using game time rankings is the most useless way to determine “ranked opponents”. In fact, the committee specifically prohibits the use of polls that have a preseason starting point.
Note that game controls are not listed in the criteria. It was never considered, despite the term (or similar concepts) sometimes slipping out of the mouth of the committee chair over the past few full seasons. (The CFP has no way of measuring “game control” — I’ve seen the data the committee uses — but let’s face it, they’re talking about it.)
With that in mind, here’s what the final CFP rankings will look like. Remember, that’s not exactly how I would vote if I were on committee. I’m just predicting what they’re going to do on Sunday afternoon.
Check out Jerry Palm’s full bowl projections for 2022-23.