The first edition of the college football playoff rankings was released Tuesday night, with undefeated Tennessee finishing first in the field of four teams. After a dominant start to the 2022 season with a win over Alabama already on their resume, the Volunteers sit in first place as they make their debut in the CFP rankings as the playoffs open their ninth season.
All but one team ranked No. 1 in a season’s first CFP rankings eventually made the four-team playoffs (Mississippi State, 2014).
Undefeated teams round out the rest of the top four, with Ohio State, reigning national champions Georgia and Clemson occupying the next three spots. The Bulldogs, who are aiming to become the first back-to-back champions in a decade, meet Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET in the SEC on the CBS Game of the in a No. 1-No. 3 matchup to the Vols week.
CFP Select Committee Chairman Boo Corrigan, NC State’s athletic director, cited “the explosive nature of their offense” as the reason Ohio State finished ahead of Georgia in No. 2.
Just behind those four as the top two from the playoff field are unbeaten Michigan and one-loss Alabama.
The biggest surprise for most at the top of the rankings is the Crimson Tide, whose signature eight-game win is a one-point win over current No. 24 Texas. They’re ahead of undefeated TCU, which has wins over No. 13 Kansas State and No. 18 Oklahoma State without a loss on their resume. That the Tigers are ahead of the Wolverines was similarly unexpected, although Michigan’s weak non-conference list is a likely reason for his position.
“We’re looking for a balanced team, offensively and defensively, and [TCU] has fallen behind in some games. They could come back and win those games. But if you look at Alabama — the wins over Mississippi State, in Arkansas, in Texas, and of course the three-point loss in Tennessee — we as a committee decided to be No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 TCU. explained Corrigan.
Unlike last season, when Cincinnati opened at No. 6 in the CFP rankings and eventually became the first team in the Group of Five to make the playoffs, Tulane, at No. 19, is the highest program in the Group of Five in that ranking. That won’t create a scenario in which the Green Wave can advance to the playoffs, but in an expanded 12-team field to be introduced soon, Tulane would be in pole position to bid as the highest-ranking potential champion of the Group of Five .
Let’s take a look at the top 25 of the overall CFP leaderboard. Check out Bowls expert Jerry Palm’s analysis, which will be added shortly below.
College Football Playoff Rankings, November 1st
Analysis by Bowls expert Jerry Palm
While it doesn’t line up with our prediction of the top seven teams in the CFP rankings, it’s difficult to question the order in which the committee placed these teams. I felt like these seven teams were divided into two tiers, the top three (Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia) and the next four (Clemson, Michigan, Alabama, TCU). Any arrangement within these respective groups was justified.
Tennessee was rewarded for having more wins against ranked teams than Ohio State or Georgia.
So I’m not surprised to see Alabama in front of an undefeated TCU, especially since Texas also ended up in the rankings. That gave the Crimson Tide a win over a ranked team, and their loss is the best loss one can have right now.
You have to move down the list before there’s a real surprise. LSU at No. 10 seems a stretch. The Tigers solidly beat Ole Miss at home, but they were drilled by Tennessee (also at home) and lost to unranked Florida State. Only in 14th place Utah are there other teams with defeats against opponents who are not in this ranking.
Regardless of where the teams are ranked this week, remember that changes are coming. These rankings are not like the AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll. It’s possible to win and be relegated, or lose and be promoted (although the latter is less likely).
Take Illinois, for example. The Illini start in 16th place but have a clearer path to the playoffs than the four teams with two losses ahead of them. To get there, Illinois must win, which would include a win at Michigan on Nov. 19 and another likely against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. I didn’t say there was an easier route, but how could the committee deny a 12-1 Big Ten champion with these wins? They couldn’t and probably wouldn’t.
Everything I just said about Illinois would be just as true if there weren’t a leaderboard now—and so there’s no point in getting too excited about early CFP leaderboards.