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A Friday the 13th in the middle of October? This weekend of college football should be completely normal… right? Additionally, Bruce Feldman breaks through UCLA’s dominant D-line. And I hope you stayed awake to see the wild destination between Houston and West Virginia.
Here’s what’s happening in college football between now and Saturday…
The most important games of week 7
Two showdowns on Saturday
Impact on the College Football Playoff
Noon: Syracuse (4-2, 0-2 ACC) at No. 4 Florida State (5-0, 3-0), ABC: The Orange started 4-0 but have suffered two straight losses due to poor offensive performances against ACC opponents. The Seminoles are clear favorites and should be safe as long as they don’t look too far ahead at Duke (yes, I said they look ahead at Duke).
Afternoon (3:30 p.m.): No. 8 Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) at No. 7 Washington, ABC (5-0, 2-0): This is the game of the weekend and one of the games of the season. Quarterbacks Bo Nix (Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) should lead an offensive duel in which the winner jumps to the top of the Heisman Trophy voting list and secures a huge playoff resume builder.
Prime Time (7:30 p.m.): No. 10 USC (6-0) at No. 21 Notre Dame (5-2), NBC: Notre Dame’s CFP hopes were likely dashed by last week’s loss to Louisville. Meanwhile, USC battled Arizona in three overtimes and doesn’t have much room for error.
Group of 5 spotlights
Noon: Georgia Southern (4-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) at James Madison (5-0, 2-0), ESPN2: It’s already been an exciting week in the Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State on a walk-off field goal on Tuesday. The weekend begins with a battle between the two best teams in the East. Last season, Georgia Southern and JMU combined for 24 points in the final seven minutes of an Eagles win.
Afternoon (3:30 p.m.): FAU (2-3, 1-0 AAC) at USF (3-3, 2-1), ESPN2: Bulls QB Byrum Brown leads the AAC in total offense (No. 8 nationally), and last week Bruce wrote about how USF coach Alex Golesh is putting together the program’s best season in some time. FAU is battle-tested and just beat Tulsa after facing back-to-back Power 5 opponents (Clemson and Illinois).
Prime Time (7 p.m.): Wyoming (5-1, 2-0 MWC) at Air Force (5-0, 3-0), CBS Sports Network: In an open race to apply for the G5 NY6, Air Force and Wyoming are two of the strongest competitors. The Cowboys beat Fresno State last week but could be without RB Harrison Waylee. Air Force’s defense has allowed an MWC-best 12.2 points per game.
Sneaky good games
Noon: Iowa State (3-3, 2-1 Big 12) at Cincinnati (2-3, 0-2), FS1: Yes, the nation’s top four teams play during the noon window (No. 1 Georgia at Vanderbilt; No. 2 Michigan vs. Indiana; No. 3 Ohio State at Purdue; and No. 4 Florida State vs. Syracuse), but Iowa State-Cincinnati could be the most competitive.
Afternoon (3:30 p.m.): Texas A&M (4-2, 2-1 SEC) at No. 19 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1), ABC: There is concern in Aggieland following Texas A&M’s loss to Alabama (which included some timing issues). The Vols, meanwhile, are coming off a bye week.
Prime Time (8 p.m.): No. 18 UCLA (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) at No. 15 Oregon State (5-1, 2-1), Fox: The Bruins beat Washington State last week behind their strong defense (more on that later). Now they face Oregon State, which lost to Wazzu earlier this season. Missouri at Kentucky (7:30 p.m., SEC Network) is another game to keep an eye on, but it has garnered some attention since both teams lost last week.
Best bets from Austin Mock
Noon: Georgia Southern at JMU (-110) over 58.5: “Georgia Southern loves to throw the ball, but she has a really hard time defending the pass. James Madison should be successful through the air, which will help extend the game and allow it to go over the floor. The Dukes’ defense is good, but Georgia Southern’s passing attack is good enough to win this bet.”
Afternoon: Oregon at Washington -3 (-110): “This attack in Washington is, in my model, the best in the country. Sure, Oregon may be the more balanced team, but Washington’s defense isn’t light years behind the Ducks. In a game full of offensive firepower, give me the better offense at home.”
Prime Time: USC +2.5 (-105) at Notre Dame: “Yes, USC’s defense is bad, but I’m not exactly confident in Notre Dame’s offense. I know USC’s offense, led by Caleb Williams, is fantastic. Ultimately, Notre Dame’s offense will not be able to keep up and the Trojans will emerge victorious in South Bend.”
Caleb Williams (13) and the USC Trojans travel to Notre Dame on Saturday. (Kirby Lee/USA Today)
Feldman’s files
UCLA’s “SEC Type D Line”
This might be the best season the Pac-12 has ever had. Considering it had by far the best out-of-league record of any Power 5 conference to start the year, I can confidently say this is the conference’s best season – at least since it was named the Pac-12 becomes. A big reason is the Pac-12 QBs are shaking up college football. Penix, Nix and Williams are among the top five in the country in QB rating. Then there’s Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (19 TDs, 2 INTs), Wazzu’s Cameron Ward (14 TDs, 2 INTs) and Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei (13 TDs, 4 INTs).
But an intriguing subplot to all of this was the emergence of the conference’s toughest defense.
UCLA, a program best known for Chip Kelly’s creative offensive schemes, has a poor defense. The Bruins lead the nation in holding opponents to 3.74 yards per play, a vast improvement from 72nd last year. In the four seasons prior, UCLA was ranked No. 43, No. 123, No. 95 and No. 108. Last week against an explosive Wazzu attack that held up a good Oregon State defense for more than 8 yards per play in a 38 -35 win, the Bruins dominated, holding Wazzu and Ward to 216 total yards and just 2 of 13 on third downs. UCLA forced the Cougars into nine three-and-outs.
The hiring of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the 33-year-old son of former Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn, has proven to be one of the smartest moves of the offseason. The former Penn State DB, who rose through the NFL coaching ranks over the past decade, impressed his colleagues at Westwood with his ability to teach and connect with players. It helps that he arrived at a time when UCLA has assembled its most athletic collection of defenders since Kelly took over the program. The Bruins have a lot of long, fast players, especially in the secondary, and they have some twitchy, relentless D-linemen.
“We couldn’t block those guys,” said one of the offensive coaches who faced the Bruins this season. “They are much better up front. They have some creatures. you have one SEC type D line. He gives these linebackers a lot of freedom and they play fast. I don’t think what they do is overly complex, but it’s just difficult to block them.”
UCLA’s headliner is Laiatu Latua fierce, 6-foot-2, 265-pound former rugby star making the most of his second chance to play college football after an injury nearly ended his career.
As disruptive as Latu is (8.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks), the Bruins attack people in waves. linebacker Darius Muasau (six TFLs, 4 sacks); and the Murphy twins Gabriel and Grayson (11 TFLs combined, 3.5 sacks) cause plenty of havoc. The Bruins (4-1) are No. 2 nationally in run defense, allowing just 1.89 yards per carry, and No. 3 in red zone defense, and they are tied for the top nationally in points allowed only nine plays of 20 yards or longer each. UCLA should have another good test this weekend, visiting No. 15 Oregon State in Corvallis.