Let’s just say that seven weeks into the 2023 college football season, it has played out largely as expected, which is in stark contrast to the state of the sport a year ago. Perhaps the biggest surprise is how prominent the Pac-12 has remained in the middle. Although Washington is the only undefeated team, Oregon proved to be a near equal last Saturday as USC had put up a tremendous offensive performance for most of the year up to that point.
Georgia is still No. 1 in the nation, although it has lost some ground as Michigan (namely) poses competition for that top spot. While the Bulldogs are atop the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll, the Wolverines are atop the CBS Sports 133. Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Washington and North Carolina are also getting plenty of love as undefeated power five programs .
The two-time defending champion Dawgs and their incredibly soft schedule may not have much competition down the stretch, but the Big Ten powers will soon meet, providing some clarity at the top of the rankings before the College Football Playoff begins I’ll be busy positioning teams in a few weeks.
There’s still a lot of faith in Texas and Oregon, who only suffered one loss each, even though Alabama appears to be in the mud offensively.
Unlike last season, when there were five vacancies among Power Five programs at halftime, not a single coach lost their job because of on-field performance. The only open position is at Michigan State after Mel Tucker was fired for off-field reasons. It seems like it will take a few more weeks for the coaching carousel to get going.
At CBS Sports, we open each season with our staff breaking down their picks for the College Football Playoff, national champion, coach of the year and Heisman Trophy winner. But we are human and even we can do things wrong. There was even a shakeup in our midseason All-America selection.
That’s why we’re back at the halfway point of the season with a handful of expert second-chance tips. Here’s how we think the rest of the 2023 college football season will play out.
College Football Playoff Predictions
The first two out
National champion 2023
Georgia: A 51-13 win over Kentucky on October 7 proved that Georgia is more than capable of completing the three-peat mission, as the Bulldogs defeated the Wildcats 608-183, dominating in all facets against an opponent that considered by many to be their toughest challenge. The back half of Georgia’s schedule is at least moderately demanding, which should help put the Dawgs in postseason contention. This team doesn’t have the top-notch defensive talent of its predecessors, but it has more than enough to once again be the last team standing. — David Cobb (also Tom Fornelli, Shehan Jeyarajah)
Michigan: Michigan has yet to compete against top competition, but it speaks to the championship caliber of this 2023 team. Since the schedule is likely to become more difficult due to the ongoing conference games, the disputes are intensifying. The Wolverines have outscored their four Big Ten opponents by an average of 37.3 points per game and have yet to allow any of their seven opponents to score more than 10 points. The fact that Michigan has improved over the last month speaks to the development of a group that knows when to play its best football. After back-to-back wins in the College Football Playoff, I believe Michigan has finally broken through. — Chip Patterson (also Dennis Dodd, Jerry Palm)
Ohio state: The Buckeyes were on a roll despite several superstars either playing poorly or missing games entirely. Obviously that will change. Unlike previous Ohio State teams, this defense isn’t a liability. First-year starting quarterback Kyle McCord has thrown 11 touchdowns since his only interception in Week 1 and is second in the Big Ten in passer rating (165, 87). If he can lead this team to a win over Penn State this weekend, he could gain even more momentum. It’s about getting hot at the right moment. Ohio State’s ceiling is as high as any team in the country, and the Buckeyes could get hot at the perfect time. – Barrett Sallee
Midseason Coach of the Year
Brent Venables, Oklahoma: The Sooners were in a bad place after Lincoln Riley’s sudden departure. They watched as not only a coach walked out the door with Big 12 title rings, but also the eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback with him. Venables was brought in to steady the ship and prepare Oklahoma for the SEC move in 2024. So you can imagine how unsettling it was for the Sooners to come away from contention for the Big 12 Championships with a 6-7 record. But the excitement that began with a flurry of recruiting victories was borne out by successes on the field. Oklahoma has improved its defense – Venables’ specialty – and cleaned up its game to achieve the playoff contender status that Sooners fans expect. From 6-7 to potentially CFP-bound with a team that trailed by less than 15 all season, Venables did more than just steady the ship. He’s given Sooners fans reasons to believe they’ll take off in the SEC. — Patterson (Fornelli, Cobb)
Kalen DeBoer, Washington: Three years ago, the South Dakota native was the coach at Fresno State. Before that, he was the offensive coordinator at Indiana. DeBoer was spot on when he was the right man in the right place to replace Jimmy Lake in Washington. DeBoer had no real ties to the school, but knew an old quarterback he coached at Indiana. The signing of Michael Penix Jr. turned this program around to the point where it could perhaps win the toughest league in the country and compete for the College Football Playoff. At 17-2 in 1 1/2 seasons, DeBoer is at the top of his field. As Penix said Saturday after being asked if Washington was ready for the Big Ten: “You better be ready.” [for us].” — Dodd (Sallee)
Mike Elko, Duke: The Blue Devils were a nice story after winning nine games in 2022, but most expected the ride to end there. Duke was picked to finish sixth in the ACC – tied with Pitt – and was expected to take a step back as the league divisions dissolved. Instead, Elko’s team beat Clemson, upset Notre Dame and is one of three teams remaining without an ACC loss. Duke is ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25, its highest since 1994. The second half of the schedule is extremely difficult, but the Blue Devils have positioned themselves as one of four serious ACC contenders in the home stretch. Give Elko his flowers because the Blue Devils are one of the best stories in college football. – Jeyarajah
Mike Norvell, Florida State: Just a few years ago, people wondered if Norvell could keep the job at Florida State. Thanks to some increased recruiting and success in the transfer portal, Norvell is now halfway to getting the Seminoles back to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014. The last time FSU played for a national championship was after the 2013 season captured the final title of the BCS era. Norvell has helped bring this program back to relevance and is setting it up for more. — Palm tree
Heisman Trophy frontrunner
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington: The statistical case for Penix is silly. He is No. 2 in yards per attempt, No. 2 in total offense and No. 4 in passing touchdowns for the only undefeated team in the Pac-12. To truly understand Penix’s Heisman case, however, look at the end of Washington’s win over Oregon. With a four-point lead, Ducks coach Dan Lanning opted for a crucial fourth-down attack near midfield to keep the ball from getting into Penix’s hands. Two plays after the failed fourth attempt, Penix had his Heisman moment with a game-winning dart against Rome Odunze. Washington has a 13-game winning streak – the second-longest active streak behind Georgia (24) – with wins over Texas, Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon twice. No player in college football was more inevitable than Michael Penix Jr. – Jeyarajah (Dodd, Palm, Patterson, Cobb)
JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: It can be beneficial to not be in the spotlight of the Heisman race all season. The player who was considered the favorite in September will quickly have his eligibility revoked as soon as he plays poorly. Then there’s the player on a national title contender who doesn’t get much attention because his team hasn’t played its biggest games yet. The three interceptions Caleb Williams threw against Notre Dame? Heisman campaign over! The three interceptions JJ McCarthy threw in a 31-6 win over Bowling Green? No one knows they happened, and no one will care if he plays well against Penn State and Ohio State before leading the Wolverines to another Big Ten title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. –Fornelli
Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State: The Seminoles signal-caller set the tone for his Heisman Trophy campaign in the Week 1 win over LSU and hasn’t slowed down since. He is the undisputed leader of a team that is not only fighting for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but could also be considered the favorite at this point. Travis was extremely consistent. He has thrown just one interception and ranks fourth nationally in touchdown-to-interception ratio among passers with 100 or more pass attempts. What is more important, however, is what lies ahead. Aside from the Duke game this weekend, Florida State’s schedule is extremely manageable. Like it or not, voters love fresh blood and are hesitant to award the Heisman to players who have been in the discussion before. Fair or not, he has concocted a perfect Heisman recipe and will celebrate a few weeks after Thanksgiving. — Sallee